Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- Bernake says US on unsustainable fiscal path
- Feds Raskin says Fed policy appropriate
- Risk pair selling short lived after worse than expected ISM data
- Worse than expected ISM sends risk pairs down
- ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending Drop, Prices Paid Higher
- USDCHF holds against the 38.2% retracement level and rotates toward the 200 hr MA
- EURUSD swings back higher after failing on break below key support
- GBPUSD swings between support and resistance
- Netherlands De Jager Speaks to Reporters
- The EURUSD battles at key levels
- US ISM Numbers Along with Construction Spending Due at 10AM
- US Jobless Claims Improve as Personal Income and Spending Drop
- Canadian Current Account (BOP), Industrial Product Price MoM, and Raw Materials Price Index
- EURUSD in narrow trading range as data awaited
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.1.2012
| Bernake says US on unsustainable fiscal path Posted: 01 Mar 2012 07:35 AM PST
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| Feds Raskin says Fed policy appropriate Posted: 01 Mar 2012 07:31 AM PST
Meanwhile Bernanke testifies in Washington again. Mirrors text of speech yesterday. He is starting Q and A session. |
| Risk pair selling short lived after worse than expected ISM data Posted: 01 Mar 2012 07:20 AM PST
The selling in the risk pairs following the worse than expected ISM data was short lived and the pairs like the AUDUSD, NZDUSD and EURUSD has reached either new day highs and/or new NY highs.
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| Worse than expected ISM sends risk pairs down Posted: 01 Mar 2012 07:03 AM PST
The EURUSDs first reaction is to the downside on the worse than expected ISM data. The 1.33097 level (38.2% of the days range), should be resistance now. A break of the 1.3294 and 1.3289 will be eyed. A move below these levels should solicit more downside pressure. |
| ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending Drop, Prices Paid Higher Posted: 01 Mar 2012 07:00 AM PST ISM Manufacturing: Survey: 54.8 Actual: 52.4 Prior: 54.1 Feb vs Jan 12′ Breakdown ISM Prices Paid: Survey: 58.0 Actual: 61.5 Prior: 55.5 Construction Spending: Survey: 1.0% Actual: -0.1% Prior: 1.5% Revised: 1.4%
USD/JPY moves to the downside a bit. |
| USDCHF holds against the 38.2% retracement level and rotates toward the 200 hr MA Posted: 01 Mar 2012 06:43 AM PST
The USDCHF was able to push above the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) at the 0.9038 level and move to the next key target – the 38.2% of the move down from the Feb 16th high. The price held this resistance target at the 0.9071 level (high reached 0.90707) and has since moved back lower. The 200 hour MA at the 0.9038 level will be eyed by traders for support. A break and the low for the day at the 0.9020 will be the next target, with further potential for a test of the 100 hour MA at the 0.8982 a possibility. Look for buyers against the 200 hour MA on the 1st test with stops below. |
| EURUSD swings back higher after failing on break below key support Posted: 01 Mar 2012 06:27 AM PST
The market seems nervous and that was evident at the key support level below. The pair had good support against the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the Feb 16th low at the 1.32896 level and the 200 day MA at the 1.3294 level. When the price fell below these two key support levels, it should have solicited momentum technical sellers, but after dipping at 1.3281, the selling dried up and the price rotated back higher.
The correction higher has now moved to the 38.2% of the days range and is currently looking to move above this level at the 1.3311. Key support still remains against the 1.3289-94 levels and market tension still remains high, but with the downside tested and holding, the war continues with the bulls winning the last battle.
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| GBPUSD swings between support and resistance Posted: 01 Mar 2012 06:07 AM PST
The 200 day MA held support at the end of yesterday’s trading day and in the morning London trading hours. The rally back to the upside off the key level pushed against the topside resistance trendline. (see hourly chart below). Now the price is between the key support (200 day MA) and the topside resistance and searching for a direction bias for the day.
Looking at the 5 minute chart below, the price has just held support against the 100 bar MA level (near the 38.2% of the days range at the 1.59347 level). Traders may be using this level as support for the time being. With the daily range narrow at 65 pips (vs 106 pip 20 day average), there is room to extend the range today. Traders may eye these shorter term MA levels for bias clues with the price inbetween support and resistance on the hourly and daily charts acting as profit taking levels until broken.
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| Netherlands De Jager Speaks to Reporters Posted: 01 Mar 2012 06:02 AM PST Says:
Merkel also with a few comments here saying the fiscal pact is a ‘huge step’ toward stability and the EU leaders ‘intensively’ are going to be discussing Greek growth.
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| The EURUSD battles at key levels Posted: 01 Mar 2012 05:46 AM PST The 38.2% of the move up from Feb 16th comes in at the 1.3289 level. The 100 day MA comes in at the 1.3294. The price is stalling at these two levels looking for the push one way or the other. |
| US ISM Numbers Along with Construction Spending Due at 10AM Posted: 01 Mar 2012 05:40 AM PST
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| US Jobless Claims Improve as Personal Income and Spending Drop Posted: 01 Mar 2012 05:31 AM PST Jobless Claims: Survey: 355K Actual: 351K Prior: 351K Revised: 353K Continuing Claims: Survey: 3418K Actual: 3402K Prior: 3392K Revised: 3404K Personal Income: Survey: 0.4% Actual: 0.3% Prior: 0.5% Personal Spending: Survey: 0.4% Actual: 0.2% Prior: 0.0% PCE Deflator: Survey: 2.3% Actual: 2.4% Prior: 2.4% Revsied: 2.5% PCE Core(MoM): Survey: 0.2% Actual: 0.2% Prior: 0.2% Revsied: 0.1% PCE Core(YoY): Survey: 1.8% Actual: 1.9% Prior: 1.8% Revsied: 1.9%
US jobless claims staying at best levels since March 7, 2008. EUR/USD drops slightly on the news. |
| Canadian Current Account (BOP), Industrial Product Price MoM, and Raw Materials Price Index Posted: 01 Mar 2012 05:30 AM PST Canadian Current Account (BOP), Industrial Product Price MoM, and Raw Materials Price Index Current Account (BOP)
Industrial Product Price MoM
Raw Materials Price Index
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| EURUSD in narrow trading range as data awaited Posted: 01 Mar 2012 05:29 AM PST
The EURUSD is in a narrow trading range today. The low for the day was taken out in early NY trade but just barely. The low in London was 1.3304. The low in NY came in at 1.3300. The low to high trading range is 56 pips which is much lower than the 20 day average of 121 pips. However, the ranges have been trending to the downside of late. The high 20 day average range in 2011 reached 146 pips. The low range for a specific 24 hour day came in at 54 pips on the 1st trading day of the year (a semi holiday). Today’s low of 56 pips equaled the other low for the year which occurred on February 22nd. I would expect an extension of the range at some point today. The price on the hourly chart is between support and resistance. On the downside, the 38.2% of the move up from the Feb 16th low comes in at the 1.32896 level. The bullish run since mid February has seen the price move from 1.2973 to a double top at the 1.3484 level. A move below this Fibonacci level will help confirm further selling pressure in the pair. ON the topside the price is below the 200 hour MA at the 1.3339 level currently after yesterdays sharp profit taking fall. Also of note is the support against the 100 day MA. The key MA comes in at the 1.3294 level today. A move below this level is also needed to entice further selling pressure.
Traders will likely continue to use the 38.2% at 1.32895 as a backstop to buy the market with a stop below the level. The burden of proof is for the sellers to overtake the buyers. Yesterday, the sellers/profit takers took control, but until the price can breach that 38.2% level, they have not proved the sell off was nothing more than profit taking. Show me the sellinga and the ability to extend below the 38.2% and the selling pressure should intensify. |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.1.2012 Posted: 01 Mar 2012 05:20 AM PST
Yesterday’s comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke took the steam out of any additional Fed stimulus in the short end. The marketplace still seems to feel that the Fed will eventually do a 3rd round of their QE program-but no indication was given of when any additional QE would take place. As the jobs markets tries to do a little better-the Fed will monitor the situation, and act accordingly. In other news-The Bank of England’s Miles sees the UK QE program as very worthwhile. The QE helped keep Gilt yields lower, along with the UK’s safe haven status, kept the nation’s economy from teetering. Asian equity markets were lower, while European equity markets are higher-along with US Futures. Oil is higher-over $107/bbl. Gold is also inching up. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK |
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