Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- Is it enough? EURUSD bounces off support area and tests topside trendline/Fibo level
- GBPUSD reaches the 200 hour MA target.
- Correction in EURUSD stays below the 38.2% retracement
- USDJPY makes new highs but backs off
- GBPUSD moves back below the 200 day MA/100 hour MA today
- EURUSD sellers keep the pressure on
- A touch better GDP not helping the USDCAD (at least initially)
- Canada GDP Grows to 0.4%
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.2.2012
- Spain say negative GDP may continue into Q3 this year
- Canada GDP Data Due at 8:30AM
- Trend day down (following the non trend day yesterday) as the technicals take charge
- Italy’s 2011 GDP rises 0.4% vs. 0.3% expected by economists
- Eurozone PPI up 0.7% from prior month vs. 0.6% expected
- UK Construction PMI at 54.3 vs. 51.3 expected
| Is it enough? EURUSD bounces off support area and tests topside trendline/Fibo level Posted: 02 Mar 2012 07:21 AM PST
The range for the day has extended to 146 pips which is above the 120 pip average over the last 20 days of trading. This comes after the Non-trending day yesterday which saw a low to high trading range of 75 pips. Non trending, transistions into trending and that is what we have seen today. The question now is “Is it enough?”. In order to end the down trend (at least intraday), a move above the trendline is needed. That would open the door for a test of the most recent high at the 1.3225 and above that the 100 bar MA (blue line in the chart below) at the 1.3240 level currently (and moving lower). Failure to move above the targets, keeps the longs nervous and the sellers happy.
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| GBPUSD reaches the 200 hour MA target. Posted: 02 Mar 2012 07:09 AM PST
The GBPUSD has made it to the next target support level against the 200 hour MA at the 1.5833 level. (see prior post). This level should slow the move lower as profit takers enter. When the 100 and 200 hour MA are at a large distance apart, the market traders tend to use the 200 bar MA as a profit taking level – at least on the first test. If the market is unsure of the directional bias, a move back toward the 100 hour MA could occur (I call it trading between the goal posts). A move below the level has additon support at the 1.58196 level. On the topside, traders will eye the 1.58599 level (see chart above) as resistance now. |
| Correction in EURUSD stays below the 38.2% retracement Posted: 02 Mar 2012 06:41 AM PST
The EURUSD moved to a highe of 1.32258, just short of the 1.32273 retracement target (see prior post by clicking here) . Selling against the level shows the shorts are still in control and the pair is currently testing the lows for the trading day (see chart below). On a break, look for the bottom channel trendline to solicit profit taking buying. That level comes in at the 1..3185 level currently.
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| USDJPY makes new highs but backs off Posted: 02 Mar 2012 06:27 AM PST
The USDJPY has pushed to new highs (highest level since May 31, 2011) but has backed off for the second time today. This is not a good sign – at least for the short term – and as a result, a test of the upward sloping trendline at the 81.41 level might be in order. The 81.69 level is the 61.8% of the move down from the 2011 high price, so there is another reason to sell/take profit at this level/area.
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| GBPUSD moves back below the 200 day MA/100 hour MA today Posted: 02 Mar 2012 06:13 AM PST
The move back below the 200 day MA (green line in the chart above) at the 1.5900 level and the 100 hour MA(blue line in the chart below) at the 1.5893 has the bulls/buyers reevaluating their postion. Stops were triggered on the breaks and the price decline has pushed the price to the 38.2% of the move up from the February 23rd low to the high reached on Feb 29th at 1.58599. The decline has slowed at the level, but the correction action has been limited. So sellers remain in control. The next key target for the pair is the 200 hour MA at the 1.5833 level. I would expect buyers /profit takers against this level on the first test.
On the topside, staying below the 38.2% of the last leg to the downside in the 5 minute chart below comes in at 1.58828. Sellers looking for continued downside momentum would like to see the price stay below this level. A move above the 50% at 1.5893 and the 200 day MA at the 1.5900 level would not be welcomed and would put into question the move lower today.
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| EURUSD sellers keep the pressure on Posted: 02 Mar 2012 05:47 AM PST
The ERUUSD is looking toward a new low. Should the low be broken yet again, the next target would come in not far away at the 1.3195 area. This is the channel support trendline in the hourly chart above. The EURUSD has been marching down today after the non trending day yesterday. Each move to the downside, has held the 38.2% corrective level. This has kept the bears/sellers in charge. The current 38.2% of the last leg down comes in at the 1.32273 level. The 50% comes in at the 1.32343. These levels will be eyed for clues for a potential bottom. A move above each would be indicative of some profit taking and should lead to further corrective momentum. The 100 bar MA on the chart above would be a potential target if the aforementioned levels can be breached (at 1.3256 currently – moving down). |
| A touch better GDP not helping the USDCAD (at least initially) Posted: 02 Mar 2012 05:38 AM PST
The MoM GDP came in at 0.4% vs 0.3%. The YoY Annualized came in as expected. The data has not helped the CAD $ as US dollar buying seems to be more the theme for the day. The USDCAD has been moving to the downside as oil price increases helped the loonie. On Wednesday, the price fell below the low for the month at the 0.9905 level. The 0.9891 level was the low going back to the end of October. A move back above these levels will be eyed as a clue that the downside momentum has failed. Staying below that level however, keeps the bears in charge with a target at the bottom channel trendline at the 0.9793 price (currently) the next target.
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| Posted: 02 Mar 2012 05:31 AM PST Domestic Product (MoM): Survey: 0.3% Actual: 0.4% Prior: -0.1 Gross Domestic Product (YoY): Survey: 1.9% Actual: 1.8% Prior: 3.5% Revised: 4.2 |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.2.2012 Posted: 02 Mar 2012 05:29 AM PST
The Euro continues to be under pressure. The EUR/USD pair was around 1.33 when German retail sales data hit the wires and disappointed. Asian equity markets dropped,along with Europe. US Futures are also lower at this time. HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK |
| Spain say negative GDP may continue into Q3 this year Posted: 02 Mar 2012 05:15 AM PST
Is is possible to expect growth in 2012? HMMM Today Spain announced that 112,269 people registered for jobless benefits. This brought the total to 4.71 million. The estimate was for a rise of 80,000. Half the young people are out of work. The estimated cuts of 4.7% from spending will likely be needed to make up fo the revenue shortfall from taxes. |
| Posted: 02 Mar 2012 04:51 AM PST
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| Trend day down (following the non trend day yesterday) as the technicals take charge Posted: 02 Mar 2012 04:44 AM PST
The non trending day yesterday in the EURUSD, has led to a trend move down today. In Spain, the ranks of the Unemployed rose by 112.3K vs expectations of 80K. Germany showed Retail Sales fell by a larger than expected -1.6% (vs +0.5% exp)but the prior month was revised sharply higher at +0.1% vs -1.4%. EU PPi rose by a greater than expected 0.7% MoM vs expectation of 0.5%. Merkel commented that the European crisis is not over. The EU leaders are meeting and talking about pro-growth strategy while at the same time signing a budget controlling fiscal pact. Perhaps most damaging was done technically. The price of the EURUSD traded in a narrow 74 pip trading range for the entire day yesterday. In the asian session, the price fell below the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart, then started a series of legs to the downside. Corrective moves on the move, held 38.2% retracement levels – keeping the seller in charge. The price also fell below the 100 day MA at the 1.3288 level which also corresponded with the 50% of the move up from the Feb 16th low. This key support area found buyers yesterday (low reached 1.3281), but not today as selling intensified. In the UK, higher PMI Construction kept the GBP relatively supported. However, in early NY trading the price fell below the 100 hour MA at 1.5900 and then the 200 day MA at 1.5893, triggering stops to the downside. The USDCHF moved sharply higher after its quiet day yesterday. The 0.91825 level is an important target on the upside as both the 100 day MA and 38.2% retracement of the move down from the 2011 high are found at the level. Canada GDP will be released at 8:30 with expectations for a 0.3% gain in Dec. The 4Q is expected to show a 1.8% annualized increase (vs 3.5% in 3Q). The EU leaders are continuing to meet in Brussels and comments are expected throughout the day. |
| Italy’s 2011 GDP rises 0.4% vs. 0.3% expected by economists Posted: 02 Mar 2012 02:05 AM PST Eur/Usd trades at 1.3257. |
| Eurozone PPI up 0.7% from prior month vs. 0.6% expected Posted: 02 Mar 2012 02:02 AM PST Eur/Usd trades at 1.3255, up about 5 points since release. |
| UK Construction PMI at 54.3 vs. 51.3 expected Posted: 02 Mar 2012 01:33 AM PST Gbp/Usd has not reacted with much of a boost, as the pair is up 5 pips since release of number to 1.5920. |
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