Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EU comments on newswires
• Forex Morning Report- June 15
• Forex QUICK: EURUSD moves above channel resistance and week high but comes off.
• Net Long Term TIC data a bit better
• US TIC Data due at 9:00 AM
• Import Price Index higher than expected. Empire a wash
• Import Price Index Improves as Empire Manufacturing Data a Touch Worse
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.15.2010
• Forex QUICK: AUDUSD consolidates after trend rally. Watch 0.8586 resistance
• Fed’s Bullard on the newswires
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment
• ZEW Comments
• Eurozone Trade Balance
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment

EU comments on newswires Posted: 15 Jun 2010 07:02 AM PDT Gives Finland, Denmark, and Cyprus to 2011, 2013 and 2012 to bring deficit below 3% limit. Recommends extra deficit scrutiny. Adds that they see Spain and Portugal budget talks appropriately ambitious.

Forex Morning Report- June 15 Posted: 15 Jun 2010 06:30 AM PDT Forex Morning Report- June 15

Forex QUICK: EURUSD moves above channel resistance and week high but comes off. Posted: 15 Jun 2010 06:26 AM PDT

Net Long Term TIC data a bit better Posted: 15 Jun 2010 06:01 AM PDT Shows a 83.0B net inflow.

US TIC Data due at 9:00 AM Posted: 15 Jun 2010 05:52 AM PDT   The US TIC data for month of April will be released at 9:00.  The expectation is for 70-77 billion.  Last month the data showed a sharp $140.5 billion increase as money flowed into the safety of dollar denominated instruments.  The data release shows flows of funds into and out of the US. However, it tells more what happened rather than what may happen going ahead.  As such, the effect in the market is normally short lived.

Import Price Index higher than expected. Empire a wash Posted: 15 Jun 2010 05:33 AM PDT Import prices fell by -0.6% after a revised 1.1% gain (vs 0.9%). Empire Manufacturing came in at 19.57 vs expectation of 20.0. This is up from 19.11. New Orders rose but Employment fell. Prices Paid 27.16 vs 44.74 Prices Received 4.94 vs 5.26 New Orders 17.53 vs 14.30 Shipments 19.67 vs 11.29 Delivery Time 9.88 vs -6.58 Inventories -1.23 vs 1.32 Unfilled Orders -1.23 vs -7.89 Number of Employees 12.35 vs 22.37 Canada Labor Productivity rose by 0.7% versus 1.2% expectations. The prior month productivity was lowered as well. Manufacturing Sales rose by 0.2% vs 1.4% last month (revised from 1.2%).

Import Price Index Improves as Empire Manufacturing Data a Touch Worse Posted: 15 Jun 2010 05:31 AM PDT Import Price Index (MoM):          Survey: -1.2%             Actual: -.6              Prior: 0.9%                Revised: 1.1 Import Price Index (YoY):           Survey: 7.9%             Actual: 8.6               Prior: 11.1%                Revised: 11.2 Empire Manufacturing:                   Survey: 20.00             Actual: 19.57              Prior: 19.11

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.15.2010 Posted: 15 Jun 2010 05:29 AM PDT Good Morning: With weaker than expected data from Germany (ZEW survey) and the UK (CPI), along with Moody’s downgrade of Greek bonds to virtual junk status-the Euro and GBP held up reasonably well.  Even as the Euro and GBP slumped for a time-they rebounded and now we await data from the US this morning. Equity market gains may assist the FX markets-especially the Euro-as the gains lessen concerns about Europe’s debt problems and how they will effect global economic growth. World equity markets were higher-as are US Futures this morning. Fitch Ratings downgraded BP -as they watch for higher near term payment risks.  Thank goodness for the ratings system-how else would we know? Oil:$75.64                               Gold:$1224.50 Today’s Data: TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 8:30A.M. IMPORT PRICE INDEX MoM MAY -1.10% 0.90% 8:30A.M. IMPORT PRICE INDEX YoY MAY 8.10% 11.10% 8:30A.M. EMPIRE MANUFACTURING JUNE 2O.00 19.11′ 9:00A.M. NET LONG TERM TIC FLOWS APRIL $140.5B 9:00A.M. TOTAL NET TIC FLOWS APRIL $10.5B 10:00A.M. NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX  JUNE 22.O 22.O HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Forex QUICK: AUDUSD consolidates after trend rally. Watch 0.8586 resistance Posted: 15 Jun 2010 05:28 AM PDT

Fed’s Bullard on the newswires Posted: 15 Jun 2010 04:57 AM PDT Fed’s Bullard comments on the newswire that he sees “substantial” US inflation in the medium term and that the global economy won’t have a double dip.

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 15 Jun 2010 04:42 AM PDT

Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Posted: 15 Jun 2010 02:12 AM PDT Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment came in at 18.8, weaker than the 41.2 expected.  This poor number confirms the poor German reading which has seen Eur/Usd lose about 30 points to 1.2180 and Eur/Jpy the same down to 111.15.

ZEW Comments Posted: 15 Jun 2010 02:11 AM PDT Zew’s Franz says that the economic recovery is “still fragile” and that governments are “well advised” to define cuts now, but they should not be implemented until 2011. German economic recovery to weaken towards year end. Economic outlook still remains positive. Recovery weakening due to the debt crisis and fiscal cuts. Investor expectations are still above historical average.

Eurozone Trade Balance Posted: 15 Jun 2010 02:07 AM PDT Eurozone Trade Balance came in at 1.4B, weaker than the 1.7B expected, but stronger than the 0.6B prior reading. The poor ZEW Economic Sentiment numbers coupled with cautious commentary from ZEW is dominating trading overshadowing this release. Eur/Usd is off 30 points to 1.2180.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment Posted: 15 Jun 2010 02:05 AM PDT The euro fell after a much worse than expected May German ZEW release. German ZEW Economic Sentiment - Survey: 42.0   Actual: 28.7   Prior: 45.8 German ZEW Current Situation - Survey: -15.0   Actual: -7.9   Prior: -21.6 Upon the release the euro fell nearly 30 pips against the USD and the JPY but has since slightly recovered.

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