Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Forex Morning Report- June 24
• US Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Slightly Better
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.24.2010
• US Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders Data at 8:30AM
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary for June 24th is available for viewing
• Eurozone Industrial New Orders m/m
• German/Greek bond spread widens, Eur/Usd falls
• Italian Retail Sales
• Euro testing 200 hour moving average
• Trichet on the wires….
• 6-24 Economic Calendar
• EUR/USD and the 100hr MAVG
• Cable Trades at Highest Level Since Early May
• Japan’s May Trade Balance
• New Zealand Q1 GDP

Forex Morning Report- June 24 Posted: 24 Jun 2010 06:04 AM PDT Forex Morning Report- June 24

US Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Slightly Better Posted: 24 Jun 2010 05:33 AM PDT Durable Goods Orders:   Survey: -1.4%      Actual: -1.1%     Prior:  2.9%   Revised: 3.0% Durables Ex Transportation:   Survey:  1.0%      Actual: .9     Prior:  -1.0%   Revised: -.8% Initial Jobless Claims:   Survey: 463K      Actual: 457K     Prior:  472K    Revised: 476 Continuing Claims:   Survey: 4550K      Actual: 4548K     Prior:  4571K    Revised: 4593

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.24.2010 Posted: 24 Jun 2010 05:08 AM PDT Good Morning: The JPY and USD rose overnight on continued speculation that the global recovery may be faltering.  Yesterday’s US report that new home sales plunged in May to the lowest level on record, along with the FOMC’s  comments that financial conditions have become “less supportive” of economic growth caused the markets to head for the safe refuge of the JPY and USD. Sovereign debt issues, lower equity markets, and slumping Greek bonds added to the euros fall. European equity markets along with US Futures are lower. Oil is lower-and gold is stable.  Oil:$75.82                                          Gold:$1232.20     TODAY’S RELEASES TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 08:30AM DURABLE GOODS ORDERS  MAY -1.40% 2.90% 08:30AM DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION  MAY  1.O%  -1.O% 08:30AM INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS  JUNE 19  460K  472K 08:30AM CONTINUING CLAIMS  JUNE 12  4550K  4571K HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders Data at 8:30AM Posted: 24 Jun 2010 05:04 AM PDT

The NY Opening Forex Commentary for June 24th is available for viewing Posted: 24 Jun 2010 04:32 AM PDT

Eurozone Industrial New Orders m/m Posted: 24 Jun 2010 02:03 AM PDT New orders in the Eurozone were 0.9%; worse than the forecast of 1.6% and much lower than the prior reading of 5.7%.  Additionally, Italian quarterly unemployment was in line with its forecast at 8.4%.

German/Greek bond spread widens, Eur/Usd falls Posted: 24 Jun 2010 01:29 AM PDT Eur/Usd has sold off in recent trading, possibly a reaction to the widening German/Greek bond spread which is again above 800 basis points. The pair currently trades at 1.2281, a new session low.

Italian Retail Sales Posted: 24 Jun 2010 01:03 AM PDT Italian retail sales came in slightly worse than expected at -0.3% versus its forecast of -0.1% and prior showing of 0.5%. The euro is currently trading off session lows against the USD.

Euro testing 200 hour moving average Posted: 24 Jun 2010 12:29 AM PDT As shown on the hourly chart below, the EUR/USD has been trading lower the past few hours after reaching a weekly high of 1.2351. On the way down the pair broke through the 100 hour moving average at 1.2330 and the 23.6% fibo level at 1.2317 on the move from the low on June 23rd to today’s high. The previous candlestick’s low came in just shy of the 200 hr, but it is currently trading around the 1.2300 figure in the area between the 23.6% fibo line and the 200 hour moving average. If  the the pair continues lower, the next downside target is the 38.2% line at 1.2296 and further is the 50.0% at 1.2279.

Trichet on the wires…. Posted: 23 Jun 2010 10:10 PM PDT The idea that austerity measures could trigger stagnation is incorrect. Don’t think that risks of deflation could materialize. The euro is a very credible currency which safeguards price stability and is a major asset in the eyes of investors. Confident we are on the right track for regulatory reforms; a number of important decisions are to be made at the November G20 meeting.

6-24 Economic Calendar Posted: 23 Jun 2010 08:50 PM PDT

EUR/USD and the 100hr MAVG Posted: 23 Jun 2010 06:12 PM PDT The 100 hr moving average has guided/supported the EUR/USD pair since the 10th of June when it started appreciating after being battered through the 1.19 handle on sovereign debt concerns out of Europe.  However after hitting some resistance in the middle of the 1.24 handle the pair has been resisted this week by that same 100hr moving average that it is currently testing. The next move here could prove significant in the very short-term as the month and the first half of the year are rapidly coming to an end, equities contine to suffer and concerns out of Europe remain prevalent.

Cable Trades at Highest Level Since Early May Posted: 23 Jun 2010 06:03 PM PDT The GBP/USD pair is trading at its highest level since the 12th of May, when in that time frame it set a double short-term top in the middle of the 1.50 handle. Cable has continued its June bid on the back of meeting minutes overnight from the Bank of England that revealed that MPC member Sentence voted for a 25 basis point hike and Governor King suggested that a shift in monetary policy would be led by rate hike. Another positive indicator for the pair has been the 4-100hr mavg breaking above the 4-200hr.

Japan’s May Trade Balance Posted: 23 Jun 2010 05:03 PM PDT Japan’s May Trade Balance came in weaker than expected invoking no reaction from the USD/JPY pair that has been under pressure all week and is struggled to maintain the 90 handle.  The details are as follows: Merchandise Trade Balance - Survey:480B   Actual:394.2B   Prior:742.3B Adj Merch Trade Balance - Survey:626.8B   Actual:416.1B  Prior:729.1B Merch Trade Exports (YoY) - Survey:36.5   Actual:32.1   Prior:40.4 Merch Trade Imports (YoY) - Survey:34.2   Actual:33.4   Prior:24.2 On a 5 min chart we see the 500 minute moving average preventing any appreciation in the pair since the European open yesterday.

New Zealand Q1 GDP Posted: 23 Jun 2010 03:49 PM PDT New Zealand’s 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product came in as expected giving the Kiwi a momentary bid for second straight day (yesterday on a better Account Deficit - GDP ratio.) The pair has broken above the 200 day moving average 2 of the last 3 days and now has another opportunity to perhaps test trendline resistance over a figure away on the weekly chart below. GDP (QoQ) - Survey:0.6%   Actual:0.6%   Prior:0.8% GDP (YoY) - Survey:1.9%   Actual:1.9%   Prior:0.4%

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