Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD rises despite better US data
• US Consumer Confidences Rises
• Chicago PMI comes out stronger at 62.5.
• IMF Lipsky on the wires
• USDCHF in the middle of a range
• USDJPY holds Fibo support on first test
• US Consumer Confidence & Chicago PMI Due at 10AM
• Forex Morning Report- Nov 30
• US S&P Case-Shiller Data All Lower
• EURJPY falls to 2 1/2 month lows
• Weak Canada GDP sends the USDCAD higher
• Canada GDP & Quarterly GDP Both Lower
• FXDD’s SVP Bob McKeon appears on CNBCs Squawk
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.30.2010
• NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing

EURUSD rises despite better US data Posted: 30 Nov 2010 07:01 AM PST Despite the better ChicagoPMI, the EURUSD has seen some profit taking/short covering.  The pair is heading toward intraday resistance against the 38.2% retracement of the days range and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. Look for seller against the levels with stops likely on a move above.

US Consumer Confidences Rises Posted: 30 Nov 2010 07:00 AM PST Chicago Purchasing Manager:     Survey: 59.9     Actual: 62.5       Prior: 60.6     Consumer Confidence:     Survey: 53.0     Actual: 54.1        Prior: 50.2     Revised: 49.9 NAPM-Milwaukee:     Survey: 57.5     Actual: 59.0       Prior: 56.0

Chicago PMI comes out stronger at 62.5. Posted: 30 Nov 2010 06:56 AM PST The index came out at 62.5 vs 60.6 last. This was above expectations of 59.5 and is the highest level since 63.8 in April.  The components showed strength as well with employment and new orders rising.  Inventories were down but that may be a good going forward if they have to be replenished.  Overall, the Christmas season has gotten off to a good start as well which may be good for the economy as well.  Below are the component pieces : Prices paid          70.7  vs 68.9 last Production           71.3  vs 69.8 last New orders           67.2  vs 65.0 last Order backlogs       48.9  vs 49.2 last Inventories          48.4  vs 54.9 last Employment           56.3  vs 54.6 last Supplier deliveries  60.4  vs 62.8 last

IMF Lipsky on the wires Posted: 30 Nov 2010 06:53 AM PST Market still skeptical on Greek Plan success Notion of threat to EURO wildly exagerated Euro has solid value Ireland plan never meant to assuage all uncertainty Greek budget program is on track Solutions will take TIME

USDCHF in the middle of a range Posted: 30 Nov 2010 06:50 AM PST The USDCHF is in the middle of the 3 day range. The CHF is also a safe haven currency and as a result, the dollar move of late has not effected the USDCHF as much as some of the other currencies. Investors feel as comfortable buying the CHF as they do the EUR as it struggles with Ireland and worries about Portugal and Spain.

USDJPY holds Fibo support on first test Posted: 30 Nov 2010 06:36 AM PST

US Consumer Confidence & Chicago PMI Due at 10AM Posted: 30 Nov 2010 06:32 AM PST

Forex Morning Report- Nov 30 Posted: 30 Nov 2010 06:30 AM PST

US S&P Case-Shiller Data All Lower Posted: 30 Nov 2010 06:03 AM PST S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind:    Actual: 147.49    Prior: 148.59     Revised: 148.55 S&P/CS 20 City (MoM%) SA:              Survey: -0.40%     Actual: -.80%     Prior: -.28%     Revised:  -.48% S&P/CS Composite-20 (YOY):           Survey: 1.00%     Actual: .59%     Prior: 1.70%    Revised: 1.67% S&P/CaseShiller US HPI:                      Actual: 135.5       Prior: 138.0    Revised: 138.3 S&P/CaseShiller US HPI (YoY%):    Survey: 1.3%    Actual: -1.5%    Prior: 3.6%     Revised: 3.8%

EURJPY falls to 2 1/2 month lows Posted: 30 Nov 2010 05:55 AM PST

Weak Canada GDP sends the USDCAD higher Posted: 30 Nov 2010 05:42 AM PST

Canada GDP & Quarterly GDP Both Lower Posted: 30 Nov 2010 05:31 AM PST Gross Domestic Product:    Survey:  0.1%         Actual: -0.1%        Prior:  0.3%    Quaterly GDP Annualized:    Survey:  1.5%         Actual: 1.0%        Prior: 2.0%

FXDD’s SVP Bob McKeon appears on CNBCs Squawk Posted: 30 Nov 2010 05:13 AM PST http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1674266150&play=1

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.30.2010 Posted: 30 Nov 2010 05:11 AM PST Good Morning: I am returning from an extended Thanksgiving Holiday-I hope all of you in the US enjoyed the holiday-and for the rest of the world-the markets are now back on a regular schedule. The Euro fell through the critical 1.30 level overnight-as concerns over the regions debt crisis continue to set center stage in the marketplace.  Spanish bond yields reached their highest level in a decade, and Italian credit spreads continued to widen to record highs. Markets will be watching the Spanish debt auction scheduled for this Thursday, along with comments by the ECB at a press conference the same day.  The ECB will need to provide further accommodations for the regions banks, as speculation mounts that the ECB may need to begin a QE program to help stabilize the Eu’s credit markets. World equity markets were and are lower-as are US Futures. Oil:$85.06                                                              Gold:$1372.10 TIME FOR EST PRIOR 09:00AM S&P/CASESHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX  SEP 148.59O 09:00AM S&P/CS 20 CITY MoM SA  SEP  -0.4O%  -O.28% 09:00AM S&P/ CS COMPOSITE-20YoY  SEP  1.OO%  1.7O% 09:00AM S&P/CASE -SHILLER US HPI  3Q  —- 138.O 09:00AM S&P/CASE -SHILLER US HPI YoY   3Q 1.30%  3.6O%   09:45AM CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER NOV  59.9O      6O.2 10:00AM CONSUMER CONFIDENCE  NOV       53.O      5O.2 10:00AM NAPM - MILWAUKEE  NOV  57.5O 56.O HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 30 Nov 2010 05:04 AM PST

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Forex Morning Commentary_EURUSD breaks 200 day MA
• GBPUSD looks to the downside retracement target
• Canada record Current Account deficit
• 8:30AM Economic Data Shows Improvement, Current Account Down
• NY Opening Forex Commentary-Irish debt can’t help Euro
• Canada 3Q Current Account due at 8:30AM
• Canada Industrial Product Price & Raw Materials Data due at 8:30AM
• UK Final Mortgage Approvals & Net Lending
• 11-29 Economic Calendar
• Japanese retail sales were worse than expected at -0.2%
• Japanese Retail Sales (y/y) at 6:50 (eastern)

Forex Morning Commentary_EURUSD breaks 200 day MA Posted: 29 Nov 2010 06:14 AM PST The EURUSD broke through the 200 day MA at the 1.3129 level. Risk to 1.3139 now. The USDJPY moves comfortably above the 100 day MA at 84.06 area. Stay above that level and the upside momentum should continue. The GBPUSD is looking toward the 38.2%of the move up from the May 2010 low to the high in November. That level comes in at 1.5507 The USDCHF remains a safe haven currency (along with the US dollar) and remains below the 100 day MA at the 1.0060 level. As long as the price can remain below this key technical level, the bias remains to the downside. EURJPY is under pressure as it tests the 50% retracement of the move up from the August low. The pair has remained below the 100 day MA for the 5th day now and seems to want to make a break to the downside. Canada had a record current account deficit today which should pressure the C$ (boost the USDCAD). Watching resistance above for that pair

GBPUSD looks to the downside retracement target Posted: 29 Nov 2010 05:57 AM PST

Canada record Current Account deficit Posted: 29 Nov 2010 05:39 AM PST Lower demand for lumber and autos and a strong C$ led to lower exports. The currency effect and weaker demand for building lumber from the US keeps the US fragile. This should pressure the C$ (USDCAD higher). However, the pair has dipped on the report. The intraday support comes in at the 1.0197 level where the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found. Look for buyers against this level with stops on a move below.

8:30AM Economic Data Shows Improvement, Current Account Down Posted: 29 Nov 2010 05:32 AM PST Industrial Product Price (MoM):          Survey: 0.3%      Actual: 0.5%    Prior: 0.2%      Revised: 0.3%     Raw Materials Price Index:       Survey: 0.9%    Actual: 1.7%     Prior: -0.4%     Revised:  -.5% Current Account (BOP):       Survey: -15.2B     Actual: -17.5B    Prior:  -11.0B     Revised:  -13.0B

NY Opening Forex Commentary-Irish debt can’t help Euro Posted: 29 Nov 2010 05:12 AM PST

Canada 3Q Current Account due at 8:30AM Posted: 29 Nov 2010 04:49 AM PST

Canada Industrial Product Price & Raw Materials Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 29 Nov 2010 04:35 AM PST

UK Final Mortgage Approvals & Net Lending Posted: 29 Nov 2010 01:33 AM PST UK Final Mortgage Approvals came in as expected at 47,000. Net lending to indviduals m/m came in at 1.3B, stronger than the 0.8B expected. Gbp /Usd was bought up 20 minutes prior to release of figure, rising from 1.5582 to 1.5620. The pair has been relatively unchanged since release.

11-29 Economic Calendar Posted: 28 Nov 2010 08:46 PM PST

Japanese retail sales were worse than expected at -0.2% Posted: 28 Nov 2010 03:51 PM PST The market had a limited reaction to the release.

Japanese Retail Sales (y/y) at 6:50 (eastern) Posted: 28 Nov 2010 03:42 PM PST

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Sweeden Foreign Minister on the Wires:
• S&P on the Wires
• Russian PM Putin on the Wires
• Eurozone Private Loans and Money Supply
• German import prices worse at -0.2%
• German Import Prices (m/m) at 2 am
• 11/26 Economic Calendar
• EURUSD down but at an important level - in a QUIET market
• EURJPY tests 100 day MA on corrective move higher today
• AUDUSD tests 100 and 200 hour MA again
• GBPUSD moves toward target resistance at 1.5793
• ECB Weber on the newswires

Sweeden Foreign Minister on the Wires: Posted: 26 Nov 2010 06:46 AM PST Sweden’s foreign minister says we have profound interest in stability of Euro, this is why we offered to be part of any effort to help Ireland.

S&P on the Wires Posted: 26 Nov 2010 05:22 AM PST S&P lowers Irish Bank Ratings

Russian PM Putin on the Wires Posted: 26 Nov 2010 04:35 AM PST Russian prime minister Putin convinced that the stability of the Euro will be ensured.

Eurozone Private Loans and Money Supply Posted: 26 Nov 2010 01:03 AM PST The euro lost ground after M3 money supply came in at 1.0%; worse than the survey of 1.3% and prior reading of 1.0%. Additionally, private loans were as expected at 1.4%; slightly higher than the 1.2% prior reading.

German import prices worse at -0.2% Posted: 25 Nov 2010 11:00 PM PST

German Import Prices (m/m) at 2 am Posted: 25 Nov 2010 10:58 PM PST

11/26 Economic Calendar Posted: 25 Nov 2010 08:45 PM PST

EURUSD down but at an important level - in a QUIET market Posted: 25 Nov 2010 12:00 PM PST

EURJPY tests 100 day MA on corrective move higher today Posted: 25 Nov 2010 09:44 AM PST

AUDUSD tests 100 and 200 hour MA again Posted: 25 Nov 2010 08:20 AM PST

GBPUSD moves toward target resistance at 1.5793 Posted: 25 Nov 2010 07:54 AM PST

ECB Weber on the newswires Posted: 25 Nov 2010 07:15 AM PST At a conference in Berlin, ECB Weber is on the wires saying the EURO is one of the most stable currencies and there is no alternative to the Euro.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD rotates higher on the back of German’s Merkels comments
• Germans Merkel on the newswires
• NY Opening Forex Commentary_Happy Thanksgiving
• King Testifies at U.K Inflation Report Hearings
• Swiss employment better than expected at 4.08M
• Swiss Employment Level in 10 minutes
• 11/25 Economic Calendar
• Four currency pairs reviewed in 5 minutes
• EURUSD stalls as Wednesday feels like Friday
• The FXDD Midday Forex Commentary reviews the major currency pairs

EURUSD rotates higher on the back of German’s Merkels comments Posted: 25 Nov 2010 06:24 AM PST

Germans Merkel on the newswires Posted: 25 Nov 2010 05:41 AM PST Solidarity in the Euro area then a year ago No euro member needing debt restructuring Germany ready to show solidarity on euro German wants a strong euro The comments gave the EURUSD a boost from 1.3319 to 1.3335.

NY Opening Forex Commentary_Happy Thanksgiving Posted: 25 Nov 2010 05:14 AM PST

King Testifies at U.K Inflation Report Hearings Posted: 25 Nov 2010 02:07 AM PST “Pessimistic” outlook for consumption growth. Growth may be insufficient to take out capacity. Central bank action helped limit economic slump. Growth flattened by turnaround in inventory. “Considerable uncertainty” about outlook for demand. Sees challenge in controlling inflation. Sees GDP lower than MPC forecast. Money growth weak, likely to restrain spending. U.K. demand needs to rebalance more to increase trade. Appropriate to maintain level of stimulus. “Considerable uncertainty” about outlook for demand. “Ready to adjust policy in either direction”. “Healthy” Europe economy is important for U.K. CPI is likely to remain elevated for another year. BOE action risks “undesirable volatility” in output.

Swiss employment better than expected at 4.08M Posted: 25 Nov 2010 12:16 AM PST The market had a limited reaction to the release.

Swiss Employment Level in 10 minutes Posted: 25 Nov 2010 12:05 AM PST

11/25 Economic Calendar Posted: 24 Nov 2010 08:44 PM PST

Four currency pairs reviewed in 5 minutes Posted: 24 Nov 2010 11:30 AM PST The following video take a close look at the 4 major currency pairs against the US dollar, the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF. In the report, I look at the short and longer term bias for the pairs and define the risk. To subscribe to my analysis, send an email to greg@fxdd.com

EURUSD stalls as Wednesday feels like Friday Posted: 24 Nov 2010 10:03 AM PST

The FXDD Midday Forex Commentary reviews the major currency pairs Posted: 24 Nov 2010 09:12 AM PST The EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, EURJPY and USDCAD are all reviewed in the Midday report. For a review of any other currency pair, send me an email at greg@fxdd.com.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Michigan Consumer confidence comes in stronger
• Forex Morning Report- Nov 24
• EURUSD tests trend line resistance
• EURUSD squeezes higher after US data
• Mixed data. Better employment. Durables worse
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.24.2010
• Economic Calendar for November 24th
• NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing.
• Eurozone new orders worse than expected at -3.8%
• Eurozone Industrial New Orders m/m at 5
• EUR/USD trading near 100 day moving average
• UK revised GDP as expected at 0.8%, business investment worse at -0.2%, and index of services better at 0.6%
• UK Data at 4:30
• Euro lower after better German IFO reading
• Coming up at 4 am (eastern)

Michigan Consumer confidence comes in stronger Posted: 24 Nov 2010 06:57 AM PST The index comes in at 71.6 versus expectations of 69.5. This is the final revision for the November data. It is the highest reading since June 2010 when the index rose to 76.0.

Forex Morning Report- Nov 24 Posted: 24 Nov 2010 06:50 AM PST Forex Morning Report- Nov 24

EURUSD tests trend line resistance Posted: 24 Nov 2010 06:41 AM PST

EURUSD squeezes higher after US data Posted: 24 Nov 2010 05:51 AM PST The EURUSD has squeezed higher after US data this morning. Initial Claims were better. Durable Goods were worse. No inflation. Income up and consumers spending the income gains (or most of it). The EURUSD above the 1.3360-62 level is positive from a technical perspective.

Mixed data. Better employment. Durables worse Posted: 24 Nov 2010 05:35 AM PST Unemployment claims fell to 407,000. The lowest level since July 2008 Durable Goods orders fell by 3.3% vs an expected gain of +0.1%. The Ex Transportation component fell by 2.7% vs expectation of a rise of +0.6%. Personal Income rose by 0.5%, while personal Spending rose by 0.4%. The savings rate rose to 5.7% from 5.6% PCE was unchanged at 0.0% for the month. The YoY fell to 0.9%. Overall data is mixed. The initial claims typically show strength as retailers prepare for holiday staffing. The seasonals should account for the increase. It seems the hiring is either earlier and will tail off later or this is a continuation of the improving trend. Although it would be tempting to say things are improving, the sharp fall is likely to be viewed with some skepticism. Nevertheless the USDJPY moved higher on the data indicative of focus on the strength. The EURUSD has also gone higher. The AUDUSD has also moved higher. All is indicative of a move toward the riskier pairs.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.24.2010 Posted: 24 Nov 2010 05:33 AM PST Good Morning: The euro continued to trade lower as the the sovereign debt issues in the EU continue to be a concern for the marketplace. Standard & Poors lowered Ireland debt rating by 2 steps along with a negative outlook, as the Irish government looks for a “bailout package” from the IMF and EU.  The guesstimate is that the bailout nay reach 85-100 billion euros. In other sovereign debt news, Portugal is facing its biggest strike in nearly 22 years to protest government austerity plans in the wake of their debt crisis. On another front-North Korea blamed South Korea for driving them to the “brink of war”, a day after the North blasted artillery at the South.  We will wait and watch what the worlds response is to this military action. Asian equtiy markets were mixed-European equity markets and US futres are also higher at this time. Oil:$81.70                                                 Gold:$1378.00   TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 8:30A.M. DURABLE GOOD ORDERS  OCT, 0.10% 3.30% 8:30A.M. DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION OCT, 0.60% -0.80% 8:30A.M. CAP GOODS ORDERS NONFED EX AIR OCT, 1.00% -0.60% 8:30A.M. CAP GOODS SHIP NONFED EX AIR OCT, 0.40% 8:30A.M. PERSONAL INCOME OCT, 0.40% -0.10% 8:30A.M. PERSONAL SPENDING OCT, 0.50% 0.20% 8:30A.M. PCE DEFLATOR YoY OCT, 1.30% 1.40% 8:30A.M. PCE CORE MoM OCT, 0.00% 0.00% 8:30A.M. PCE CORE YoY      OCT. 1.00% 1.20% 8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 20-Nov 435K 439K 8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS 13-Nov 4275K 4295K 9:55A.M. U. OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE  NOV.F      69.5O 69.3O 10:00A.M. HOUSE PRICE INDEX MoM SEPT. 0.00% 0.40% 10:00A.M. HOUSE PRICE PURCHASE INDEX QoQ 3Q -1.10% 0.90% 10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES  OCT.        312K 307K 10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES MoM OCT. 1.60% 6.60% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK For my friends in the US-have a very Happy Thanksgiving Holiday.

Economic Calendar for November 24th Posted: 24 Nov 2010 05:17 AM PST

NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing. Posted: 24 Nov 2010 05:01 AM PST   Market liquidity could be strained today as the US prepares for the Thanksgiving Holiday and the global events and releases will keep the market on edge

Eurozone new orders worse than expected at -3.8% Posted: 24 Nov 2010 02:06 AM PST

Eurozone Industrial New Orders m/m at 5 Posted: 24 Nov 2010 01:49 AM PST

EUR/USD trading near 100 day moving average Posted: 24 Nov 2010 01:47 AM PST After moving substantially lower over the past two hours, the session low of 1.3284 comes in near the 100 day moving average which currently comes in at 1.3296. If downward momentum continues the next stop lower, on a daily perspective, is the 61.8% line ( at 1.32335) on the move from August 23rd lows to November 3rd highs. A reversal may see the pair visit 1.34335.

UK revised GDP as expected at 0.8%, business investment worse at -0.2%, and index of services better at 0.6% Posted: 24 Nov 2010 01:32 AM PST The market had a limited reaction to the release.

UK Data at 4:30 Posted: 24 Nov 2010 01:23 AM PST

Euro lower after better German IFO reading Posted: 24 Nov 2010 01:02 AM PST German IFO reading came ina t 109.3; better than expected. Italian retail sales worse at -0.2%. Shown below you can see that the pair made a stern move lower following the release after finding some short term resistance around 1.3417.

Coming up at 4 am (eastern) Posted: 24 Nov 2010 12:50 AM PST

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