Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Inventories rise is good for GDP but is it good for the economy?
• US Business Inventories Up
• EURJPY looking to make a move? Need to break key support at 112.80
• Forex Morning Report - Nov 15th
• US Business Inventories Data due at 10AM
• US Data Mixed, Retail sales better but Empire Manufacturing weak
• FXDD Education Webinar Tuesday Nov 16 4pm
• ECB Nowotny on newswires
• NY Opening Forex Commentary-Ireland the focus again
• Noonan on the Wires
• Retail Sales and Empire Manufacturing Data due at 8:30AM
• Eurozone Trade Balance
• Swiss PPI
• 11-15 Economic Calendar
• UK Rightmove HPI

Inventories rise is good for GDP but is it good for the economy? Posted: 15 Nov 2010 07:24 AM PST The US Business inventories rose by 0.9% in the month of September which is a positive contributor for 3rd quarter GDP. However, over the same period Total Sales rose by a smaller 0.5%. Despite the disparity between sales and inventories the Inventory to Sales ratio stayed steady at 1.27. With slow demand inventories have been pared down since the spike during the recession. The low in 2010 was 1.23 the high has been the current 1.27. Looking at a historical basis going back to 2004, and discounting the recession, the high has peaked at 1.32. As a result, the current level is right in the middle of the high to low range. Whether this rise inventories is good or bad for the economy is dependent on sales.  Today we saw US Retail Sales rise by a greater than expected 1.2% for the month of September. However, if you strip out auto and gas, the gain was only 0.4%.   So although a higher headline retail sales of 1.2% may suggest good news going forward as inventories need to be replenished, the mix of the retail sales suggests that the news may not be as good as it appears.

US Business Inventories Up Posted: 15 Nov 2010 07:08 AM PST Business Inventories:    Survey:   0.8%      Actual:     0.9%       Prior:    0.6%         Revised:   0.9 September Vs. August Business Inventories Breakdown: Retail Inventories:   0.8% vs. 1.1% Ex-Autos:   0.4% vs. 0.4% Motor Vehicles:   1.7% vs. 3.2% Furniture:   0.1% vs. 0.4% Building Material:   0.7% vs. -0.2% Food & Beverage:   0.3% vs. 0.1% Clothing:   0.0% vs. 0.3% General Merchandise:   0.1% vs. 0.3% Dept. Stores:  -0.6% vs. -0.5%

EURJPY looking to make a move? Need to break key support at 112.80 Posted: 15 Nov 2010 07:02 AM PST

Forex Morning Report - Nov 15th Posted: 15 Nov 2010 06:35 AM PST Forex Morning Report - Nov 15th

US Business Inventories Data due at 10AM Posted: 15 Nov 2010 06:15 AM PST

US Data Mixed, Retail sales better but Empire Manufacturing weak Posted: 15 Nov 2010 05:38 AM PST

FXDD Education Webinar Tuesday Nov 16 4pm Posted: 15 Nov 2010 05:33 AM PST Register now for the Tuesday webinar with Forex trainers Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell 4pm New York time - Click Here

ECB Nowotny on newswires Posted: 15 Nov 2010 05:25 AM PST Important to have clear decision on Ireland soon. Adds that Ireland has banking not a sovereign problem. Poses possible contagion risk The issue may be a banking issue but it is having a negative effect on the sovereign debt.

NY Opening Forex Commentary-Ireland the focus again Posted: 15 Nov 2010 05:01 AM PST

Noonan on the Wires Posted: 15 Nov 2010 04:56 AM PST Irish opposition spokesman Noonan believes european intervention for Ireland is underway.

Retail Sales and Empire Manufacturing Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 15 Nov 2010 04:31 AM PST

Eurozone Trade Balance Posted: 15 Nov 2010 02:16 AM PST EZ Trade Balance came in as 2.4B, stronger than the 1.3B expected and -1.7B prior reading. Eur/Usd has been trading between 1.3630-45 in recent trade.

Swiss PPI Posted: 15 Nov 2010 12:21 AM PST Swiss PPI m/m came in at -0.4%, weaker than the 0.0% expected and prior reading of -0.1%. Usd/Chf currently trades at .9825 and Eur/Chf at 1.3412, relatively unchanged.

11-15 Economic Calendar Posted: 14 Nov 2010 08:39 PM PST

UK Rightmove HPI Posted: 14 Nov 2010 04:05 PM PST Rightmove house price index came in at -3.2%; worse than the prior reading of 3.1% with home sellers cutting prices by the highest level since 2007. The GBP softened slightly following the release.

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