Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- EURUSD breaks through 200 hour support level
- August 13 Forex Market Update
- USDJPY moves through 200 hour MA
- EURUSD tests 200 hour MA support after number
- Retail Sales much weaker than expected
- GBPUSD moves higher as dollar weakens
- Better GDP in Germany, France Eurozone lift the EURUSD
- US Retail Sales, Initial Claims, Import Price Index due out at 8:30 AM
- Eur/Usd remains above 50% Fibo, sets sights on 200 hour M/A
- Eurozone Q2 advance GDP better than expected
- ECB Bulletin sees a return to growth, inflation anchored
- Swiss PPI
- German Q2 Preliminary GDP stronger across the board
- Eur/Usd trying to break to upside, finds resistance
- 8-13 Economic Calendar
| EURUSD breaks through 200 hour support level Posted: 13 Aug 2009 06:57 AM PDT The EURUSD has moved back below the 1.4283 level and has turned the bias to the downside. The level is currently testing the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart which will help confirm the downside bias on a break. That level comes in at the 1.4265 level. Traders may buy against this level (it has been a level of support today), however, resistance remains just above against the 1.4383 level. If the price remains below this level, a break of the 100 bar would be eyed with the next target coming in at the 1.4242 level (green line in the chart above). |
| Posted: 13 Aug 2009 06:25 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. Watch the new video for good information on trading during the US session. |
| USDJPY moves through 200 hour MA Posted: 13 Aug 2009 05:47 AM PDT The worse than expected data has sent the USDJPY down sharply. The price has moved back below trendline support. It has also moved back below the 200 hour MA (green line) at the 95.83 level - after trading between the 100 and 200 hour moving average “goal posts” for the entire day (blue and green MA lines in the chart above). This level will now become upside resistance. The 96.05 price is additonal upside resistance. This price represents the closing level from yesterday. The low from yesterday at the 95.11 becomes the next downside target level for the pair. As long as the price can maintain below the 95.83, this level should be challenged. |
| EURUSD tests 200 hour MA support after number Posted: 13 Aug 2009 05:40 AM PDT The EURUSD has moved lower to test the 200 hour MA support level at the 1.4283 level. The market is finding support intially against this level. A break takes some of the steam out of the EURUSD. So far, buyers are coming in against the support level. It is a key level short term. |
| Retail Sales much weaker than expected Posted: 13 Aug 2009 05:35 AM PDT The Retail Sales fell more than expected. The month on month came in at -0.1% and -0.6% ex Autos. Car sales were up over 2.4% but the other categories were very weak apart from health care and clothing. Stocks should decline and this is leading to selling in the risk pairs. USDJPY is falling, Yen crosses are falling and the GBPUSD and EURUSD are falling in reaction to the data Motor vehicles, parts 2.4% Intial Claims rose to 558K for the current week versus expectation of 545K. The Continiing Claims data came in at 6202K versus 6300K expected and 6343K last week. This improvement may be because people who were collecting claims,no longer qualify. There is a time limit on how long someone unemployed can get government assistance. |
| GBPUSD moves higher as dollar weakens Posted: 13 Aug 2009 05:29 AM PDT The GBPUSD moved to the resistance at the 1.6589 area, stalled corrected then pushed higher. The moved pushed the price through resistance at the 1.6650 level on its way to a high at.6664. The price has since dipped back down but will continue to use the 1.6589 to 1.6600 level as support. On th eupside the next target comes in at the 1.6717 to 1.6726 area, where old high from Aug 10th and the 200 hour MA are located. |
| Better GDP in Germany, France Eurozone lift the EURUSD Posted: 13 Aug 2009 05:10 AM PDT
Better GDP data out of Germany, France and the EUROZONE for Q2 lifted the EURUSD to the 200 hour moving average resistance. The level comes in at the 1.4283 level. The price consolidated against the level for the last 3 or so hours but is now trading above the the level in early NY trade. The pair is now testing the next target level at the 61.8% retracement of the last move down at the 1.4309 level. The downside should now find support against the 200 hour MA at the 1.4283 level (green line in the chart above), with |
| US Retail Sales, Initial Claims, Import Price Index due out at 8:30 AM Posted: 13 Aug 2009 04:55 AM PDT The US Retail Sales for July will be released at 8:30 AM. The expectation is for a gain of 0.8% for the month boosted by stronger car sales. This is up from the 0.6% gain in June and the 3rd increase in a row. This has not happened since the March to May period in 2008. The ex Auto index is expected to rise by 0.1% vs a 0.3% gain last month. Finally if you ex out gas and auto, the change is expected to show an unchanged reading versus a -0.2% last month. Also released at 8:30 will be the weekly Initial Claims data. Last week the claims fell to 550K from 588K the week before. The Continuing Claims have also been declining from peaks which is healthy for the jobs picture. However, note that the declines are off very high levels. Finally, the Import Price Index for the month of July will be announced. The expectation is for a decline of -0.5% versus a gains of +3.2% last month. The YoY is expected to show a decline of -19.1% vs -17.4%. This measure is largely reversing the surge a year ago as oil prices peaked in July 2008. |
| Eur/Usd remains above 50% Fibo, sets sights on 200 hour M/A Posted: 13 Aug 2009 02:15 AM PDT Eur/Usd has broken above 50% Fibo (1.4227) of low back on July 29th (1.4008). It has held for last 3 hours and seemingly has it sight on its 200 hour M/A 1.4283. There is some added resistance in that area as the 38.2% Fibo (1.4278) is close by. It will be interesting to see if Euros upward trend can break these barriers. |
| Eurozone Q2 advance GDP better than expected Posted: 13 Aug 2009 02:03 AM PDT Eurozone Q2 advance GDP q/q came in at -0.1%, better than the -0.5% expected. Y/Y came in at -4.6%, stronger than the -5.0% expected. Euro getting another boost on strong numbers this session as Eur/Usd trading cloe to highs at 1.4266. |
| ECB Bulletin sees a return to growth, inflation anchored Posted: 13 Aug 2009 02:00 AM PDT ECB monthly bulletin sees a return to growth for the Eurozone in 2010. also states that inflation expectations remain anchored. The uncertainty of economic outlook still remains high. |
| Posted: 13 Aug 2009 12:18 AM PDT Swiss PPI m/m came in at 0.0%, worse than the 0.1% expected. Y/y came in at -6.1%, worse than the -5.8% expected. No market effect on Swiss numbers. Usd/Chf trading at 1.0754 and Eur/Chf at 1.5320. |
| German Q2 Preliminary GDP stronger across the board Posted: 12 Aug 2009 11:05 PM PDT German Q2 GDP q/q came in at 0.3%, stronger than the -0.2% expected. Y/Y came in at -5.9%, stronger than the -6.6% expected. Strong numbers for the Euro as Eur/Usd extends gains up to 1.4243, Eur/Jpy 136.99 and Eur/Gbp up off session lows to .8608. |
| Eur/Usd trying to break to upside, finds resistance Posted: 12 Aug 2009 09:12 PM PDT Eur/Usd has been trading around 1.4215-25 level for last 4 hours after it ascended over 100 pips early in US session. 1.4227 signifies the 50% Fibo retracement of low back on July 30th of 1.4008. A break above may send Euro to next resistance level (1.4278, both 38.2 Fibo and 200 hour M/A). If level holds look for pullback to 1.4175 (61.8% Fibo). |
| Posted: 12 Aug 2009 08:29 PM PDT |
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