Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- August 21, 2009 Midday Forex Report
- ECB Weber and Trichet downplays the growth green shoots
- EURUSD bounces of target support at 1.4272 but downside favored
- The top failed and the downside took charge for the GBPUSD
- USDJPY moves higher. Resistance ahead at 94.69 with better resistance against the 94.94/96 level
- EURUSD tests the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart on the 1.4304 level
- USDJPY breaks higher on better data/Bernanke
| August 21, 2009 Midday Forex Report Posted: 21 Aug 2009 10:22 AM PDT |
| ECB Weber and Trichet downplays the growth green shoots Posted: 21 Aug 2009 09:01 AM PDT ECB’s Weber on the newswires is quoted as saying the steep downturn in Germany economy has halted and that there are signs of stabilization. However, he does warn that it may take 10 years to recover to prior levels seen in the last 5-6 years. He suggests it is too early to withdraw stimulus. Meanwhile ECB’s Trichet was also on the wires saying that there is an enormous amout of work is left to do to stabilize the economic situation. Furthermore, he is concerned all the “green shoots” talk is not in any way indicative of a back to normal economy. |
| EURUSD bounces of target support at 1.4272 but downside favored Posted: 21 Aug 2009 08:26 AM PDT The EURUSD fell through the support level at the 1.4304 to 1.4312 level and headed toward the target support level at the 1.4272 level (see prior post) . The low reached 1.4276 and has bounced back toward the 1.4300 level again. The downside remains favored with upside most likely contained by the 1.4304 to 1.4312 level. I would not expect the price to move back above this level, however. Look for seller against the level as the story of higher stocks and higher dollar takes hold. |
| The top failed and the downside took charge for the GBPUSD Posted: 21 Aug 2009 08:14 AM PDT Although the 1.6589 to 1.6605 key resistance was broken, sometimes it is the failures that provide the best opportunity. In this case the price broke through the 1.6605 top level and squeezed up to a high of 1.6622. The multiple levels of resistance above loomed large and instead of moving higher with the rising stock market, buying dollars took over. We warned of a break lower and when the price moved below the key support again (at 1.6589), the market sold off (see prior post) The pair is back down testing the 200 and 100 hour MA at the 1.6488 and 1.6473 levels respectively. Look for some initial buying against these levels. Upside resistance comes in at the 1.6505 level. A move below should not be faded. |
| USDJPY moves higher. Resistance ahead at 94.69 with better resistance against the 94.94/96 level Posted: 21 Aug 2009 07:56 AM PDT The USDJPY is bumping up against the 38.2% retracement level of the trend move down from the high on August 12th. The level comes in at 94.69. A break above will target the 200 hour MA currently at the 94.94 level. This level also corresponds with the 200 day MA which is at the 94.96 level today. Keep this level in mind. |
| EURUSD tests the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart on the 1.4304 level Posted: 21 Aug 2009 07:33 AM PDT Watch the 1.4304 level. Buyers have emerged against the level. However, another dip below should solicit selling with the target at 1.4272 area. (61.8% retracement and 200 bar MA currenly - green line) Corrective moves should find sellers against the 1.4436 to 1.4444 area where there are a series of lows and highs today on the 5 minute chart (see chart below). Expect stops if the price is able to move above these levels. |
| USDJPY breaks higher on better data/Bernanke Posted: 21 Aug 2009 07:17 AM PDT More upbeat comments from Bernanke (politicing for reappointment) and stronger Existing Home sales has pushed the USDJPY through the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 94.76 to 94.84 price respectively (see prior post). The pair is moving sharply higher and is testing the 100 hour MA at the 95.33 level. Look for some profit taking at the level. Watch for support at 94.19. This was the close for yesterday. IF this holds the upside resistance (i.e. 100 hour MA level) should be breached. |
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