Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- New Homes Sales surge. Much better than expectations.
- GBPUSD moves below 1.6187 support level and moves lower.
- August 26 2009 Forex Market Update - Special Training
- GBPUSD falls overnight. Good selling for most of the day
- Durable Goods better than expectations. Revisions better as well.
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.28.2009
- US Mortgage Applications rise again. Durable Goods and New Home Sales due out today.
- Ifo comments cautious after release of survey
- German Ifo business climate survey
- Aud/Usd trading above 61.8% Fibo
- German import prices below expectations
- 8-26 Economic Calendar
- AUD DEWR Skilled Vacancies
- The BOJ and Falling Rates (USD/JPY)
- Yen Bid Again in Asia
| New Homes Sales surge. Much better than expectations. Posted: 26 Aug 2009 07:06 AM PDT JULY NEW Home Sales come in at 433K versus 390 estimate (+9.6% Month on Month Prior month was revised from 384K to 395K . Most importantly the Months Supply fell to 7.5 months supply from 8.8 months. A healthy month supply is between 5 and 6 months. This is good news and the initial reaction is a lower dollar against the EURO and GBP but I would be on the lookout for a stronger dollar across the board. Watch the 1.6187 level in GBPUSD. Watch for sellers against 1.4250 in the EURUSD and a move through the 1.4211 level on the downside. |
| GBPUSD moves below 1.6187 support level and moves lower. Posted: 26 Aug 2009 06:37 AM PDT The GBPUSD is continuing to move sharply lower - breaking through the June low level of 1.6187 price. Stops have been hit and momentum has taken the price lower. Look for resistance against the level now on a rebound. A failure to extend above this level will be even more bearish for the GBPUSD and should lead to a move to the next level of support at 1.6144 and then down at 1.6100. A move back above 1.6187 may lead to some short covering but keep the level as a key level to watch today. |
| August 26 2009 Forex Market Update - Special Training Posted: 26 Aug 2009 06:28 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. August 26 2009 Forex Market Update - Special Training on Market Analysis. Greg and Shawn explain how viewing multiple timeframes can show the story in trading. We do a single very detailed review of the EUR/USD, looking at multiple factors. It should be very helpful for new traders. Be sure to leave a comment for us. Thanks and have a great day trading. |
| GBPUSD falls overnight. Good selling for most of the day Posted: 26 Aug 2009 06:02 AM PDT The GBPUSD fell early in the day rebounded toward the closing level, and has trended lower. Six of the last seven hourly bars have been down. The price stalled at the key 1.6317 level but eventually moved away from the area on the downside. The pair is approaching support at the 1.6187 area. This is a low price from the June area. The GBPUSD has been in a narrow range since June with brief moves down (below 1.6187) and to the upside (above 1.6600 area). Most of the activity has been centered between 1.6317 and 1.6589 over the last 2-3 months. The bias is to the downside as the price is below the 100 hour MA and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (see 5 mnute chart below). The price correction today should remain below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (level comes in at the 1.6300 level) A move above this level would muddy the bearish waters today. Before that level there is some resistance at the 1.6279 area. This was a low level on the first move lower after holding the 100 bar MA the last time. |
| Durable Goods better than expectations. Revisions better as well. Posted: 26 Aug 2009 05:33 AM PDT Durable Goods up 4.9% revision better a -1.3% vs -2.5% Combined with the revisions is much better than expectations. The Dollar is getting stronger against the EURO after the release after an initial spike higher. Look for support in the EURUSD at eh 1.4250. This is the 50% retracement of the last move higher. |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.28.2009 Posted: 26 Aug 2009 05:16 AM PDT
The Greenback picked up overnight as US stock futures dropped after a report that China will be looking to curb overcapacity in industry, including steel and cement. Asian equity markets were higher-European markets are lower after some disappointing corporate profits. Oil:$71.89 Gold:$948.50 Todays data: HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK |
| US Mortgage Applications rise again. Durable Goods and New Home Sales due out today. Posted: 26 Aug 2009 04:58 AM PDT US Mortgage Applications rose by 7.5%. This is on the back of a 5.6% gain last week. The Purchase index rose by 1.0% . This is the 4th increase in a row but down from last weeks gain of +3.9%. The Refinance index rose by 12.7% vs last weeks 6.9% increase. The gains were despite an increase in the 30 year mortgage rate of 5.24%. The data is consistent with a steadying/improving housing market. Note however, that anecdotal evidence still points toward sales of foreclosed homes and sales of homes in the lower price levels as purchasers take advantage of rebates from the government for 1st time homeowners. At 8:30 the US Durable Goods Orders will be released. The Expectation is for a healthy gain of 3.0% and Ex transportation rising by 0.9%. The Durable Goods Orders were likely boosted by the rebate for 1st time homeowners which has led to a bottoming in the housing market and the cash for clunker program which has helped deplete auto inventories. At 10:00 AM the US New Home Sales for the month of July will be released. The expectation is for a gain to 390K from 384K last month -an 11% gain which was the largest MoM gain in 9 years. This months increase equates to a 1.6% gain. The months supply of homes for sale fell to 8.8 months last month from 10.2 months in May. This was the lowest months supply since October 2007. This is good news for builders and suggests that there is a healing and that demand may actually spur on more supply at some point. A more healthy month supply is still at 5-6 months. However, it is a step in the right direction. A further decline will certainly be good news as new home sales help spur on other ancillary consumer spending like Durable Goods sales as homeowners furnish their new homes. The Existing Home Sales which accounts for most of US home sales, was released last week and showed a gain to 5.24M - the highest annualized rates since August 2007 and well above the 5.00M estimate. |
| Ifo comments cautious after release of survey Posted: 26 Aug 2009 01:13 AM PDT Ifo’s Abberger states he cannot conclude that economic recovery is sustainable and expects a significant rise in jobless rate in fall of 2009 and continuing into 2010 but not to exceed 5,000,000. Ifo’s Nerb states ECB should maintain low rates. He expects no rate hikes until September 2010. Also sees no risk of inflation. on these comments Eur/Usd has come off down to 1.4318. |
| German Ifo business climate survey Posted: 26 Aug 2009 01:06 AM PDT German Ifo business climate came in at 90.5, better than the 89.0 expected. current assessment also slightly better coming in at 86.1 vs. 86.0 expected. The Euro got an instant lift up to 1.4345 vs. Usd and has come off since to pre-number level of 1.4330. |
| Aud/Usd trading above 61.8% Fibo Posted: 26 Aug 2009 12:47 AM PDT Aud/Usd is trading above the 61.8% Fibo (high 8/13 .8477, low 8/17 .8154) for the last 5 hours. If it holds above the 61.8% (.8354) look for a move higher possibly up to .8427 which is a trendline of recent hourly highs. There is added support at .8349 which is the 100 hour M/A. A break below could bring the pair down to .8310-15 level where the 200 hour M/A and 50 % Fibo lie. |
| German import prices below expectations Posted: 25 Aug 2009 11:12 PM PDT German import prices m/m came in at -0.9%, worse than the -0.7% expected and the 0.4% prior reading. No major reaction to the euro in very light trading thus far. eur/Usd currently trading at 1.4315. |
| Posted: 25 Aug 2009 08:56 PM PDT |
| Posted: 25 Aug 2009 06:03 PM PDT THE DEWR Skilled Vacancies (MoM) came in at 1.0%; better than the prior release of -1.7% and it’s first increase since October of 2007. The Aussie recieved a light bid on this release as it trades off session lows across the board. |
| The BOJ and Falling Rates (USD/JPY) Posted: 25 Aug 2009 06:00 PM PDT A report earlier from the far east suggested the BOJ appears to be scaling back some of its liquidity provisions to the money market. According to the report the BOJ has been reducing the frequency of some open market operations and the funding amounts offered. However, BOJ officials suggest the central bank remains committed to its basic policy of providing ample liquidity to the money market. This is becoming a more critical part of the BOJ approach as they attempt to ensure that falling rates do not constrain transactions between private sector financial institutions. Rates are becoming more and more of a concern as 3 month-libor in the US remains below Japan (.38% vs. .38875%,) which has not occurred for 16+ years. The steadily declining price on the USD/JPY daily chart below displays this downward trend. We have also added some long-term technicals. |
| Posted: 25 Aug 2009 05:17 PM PDT The Yen has once again caught a bid early in the Asian session on soft Asian equities and waning US equity futures and was pushed to its session lows on worse than expected trade balance figures but better export and import readings. The Yen crosses have since recovered some, but continue to exhibit measured weakness on the bid side. The USD/JPY pair has moved back above the 94 handle, but faces multiple levels of technical resistance in the short-term, making the move down seemingly easier. |
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