Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US Chicago Purchasing Manager Comes out as Expected
• Foreclosure sales on the rise
• Forex QUICK:EURUSD comes under political/growth risk pressure in early NY trade
• Forex Morning Report- June 30
• Feds Duke on the newswires
• Forex QUICK: USDCAD rises on weaker Canada GDP. 1.0526 support now.
• Canada GDP Figures Down to 0%
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.30.2010
• Forex QUICK: USDJPY falls after weak ADP Employment report
• US ADP Employment Change Very Weak
• ADP added 13,000 jobs
• Feds Evans on the newswires
• Forex QUICK: GBPUSD hanging around 100 day MA at 1.5026. Level key today
• Budget will cost 1.3m jobs - Treasury (UK’s Guardian)
• US ADP Enployment Change Data at 8:15AM

US Chicago Purchasing Manager Comes out as Expected Posted: 30 Jun 2010 06:47 AM PDT

Foreclosure sales on the rise Posted: 30 Jun 2010 06:45 AM PDT Realty Track reports 31% of all sales are foreclosures. 44% YoY increase in Bank Repossessions.

Forex QUICK:EURUSD comes under political/growth risk pressure in early NY trade Posted: 30 Jun 2010 06:37 AM PDT

Forex Morning Report- June 30 Posted: 30 Jun 2010 06:35 AM PDT Forex Morning Report- June 30

Feds Duke on the newswires Posted: 30 Jun 2010 05:57 AM PDT Banking continues to recover, but slowly Consumer credit demand sluggish Lenders are tightening standards However, demand for business loans are improving The creation of loans is still a major deterent for growth/inflation.  Banks are more intent on earning interest rate spreads from investing excess funds in treasuries than lending to businessess. Although with treasury yields compressing, the benefit is falling.

Forex QUICK: USDCAD rises on weaker Canada GDP. 1.0526 support now. Posted: 30 Jun 2010 05:37 AM PDT

Canada GDP Figures Down to 0% Posted: 30 Jun 2010 05:33 AM PDT

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.30.2010 Posted: 30 Jun 2010 05:28 AM PDT Good Morning: The Euro was stronger overnight as the ECB said it will lend EU banks 131.9 Bil euros for 3 months.  Last year the ECB lent EU banks 442 Bil euros to combat the financial crisis.  These loans are to be repaid tomorrow-which is why the ECB has initiated a new loan program.  The demand for fresh cash was less than expected, which may be a sign that the financial industry may be stronger in the EU than originally expected. Asian equity market fell-European markets rose and US Futures are looking for a positive opening this morning. ADP survey shows that US companies added 13K  workers in June. A gain of 60K was expected. Oil:$76.41                                                           Gold:$1243.20    7:00A.M. MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS 25-Jun -5.90% 8:15A.M. ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE JUNE 60K 55K 9:45A.M. CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER  JUNE 59.O 59.7O 10:00A.M. NAPM-MILWAUKEE JUNE 65.O HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Forex QUICK: USDJPY falls after weak ADP Employment report Posted: 30 Jun 2010 05:23 AM PDT

US ADP Employment Change Very Weak Posted: 30 Jun 2010 05:18 AM PDT

ADP added 13,000 jobs Posted: 30 Jun 2010 05:15 AM PDT Weaker than expected.  They were expecting 60,000 Construction -35,000 Large Businesses +3,000 Medium Businesses +11,000 Small Businesses down 1,000

Feds Evans on the newswires Posted: 30 Jun 2010 05:13 AM PDT US Recovery is in place Employment will struggle Euro is headwind Inflation pretty far in the future Economy could benefit from fiscal stimulus Inflation to fall short of 2% objective for 3 years Still sees 3.5% growth in 2010 Housing picture is volatile because of one time credits Interview on CNBC

Forex QUICK: GBPUSD hanging around 100 day MA at 1.5026. Level key today Posted: 30 Jun 2010 05:02 AM PDT

Budget will cost 1.3m jobs - Treasury (UK’s Guardian) Posted: 30 Jun 2010 04:49 AM PDT http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/jun/29/budget-job-losses-unemployment-austerity An article in the UK’s Guardian today saying austerity to cost 1.3 million jobs over the next 5 years.

US ADP Enployment Change Data at 8:15AM Posted: 30 Jun 2010 04:48 AM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US Consumer Confidence Down
• Forex Morning Report- June 29th
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.29.2010
• US S&P Home Price Index Higher as S&P (MoM) & (YoY) also Better
• Canada Raw Materials Figures Down, IPPI Same as Prior
• Forex Quick: EUR/USD holding support after move lower
• US S&P Composite Data this Morning at 9AM
• Eur/Jpy at weakest level since Nov. 2001
• UK Net Lending m/m
• Noyer on the wires….
• Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator
• EUR/JPY
• 6-29 Economic Calendar
• Japan’s Employment Report / Industrial Production
• Forex Evening Report- June 28 2010

US Consumer Confidence Down Posted: 29 Jun 2010 07:04 AM PDT

Forex Morning Report- June 29th Posted: 29 Jun 2010 06:15 AM PDT Forex Morning Report- June 29th

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.29.2010 Posted: 29 Jun 2010 06:10 AM PDT Good Morning: Signs that the global economic recovery is slowing caused the markets to run to the safety of the JPY-thus allowing the yen to reach it’s highest level against the euro in eight years.  The JPY also reached a seven week high versus the USD ahead of this morning’s consumer sentiment data-which is forecast to be lower than last month.  Slowing growth concerns always drive the markets to safer havens-like the JPY,CHF and USD. World equity markets fell, and US Futures are sharply lower.  Concerns that Chinese growth is slowing will effect  global economies, as China is the main engine of the world’s economic recovery.  Oil:$76.31                              Gold:$1238.40 9:00A.M. S&P CS COMPOSITE -20 YoY APRIL 3.40% 2.30% 9:00A.M. S&P CASESHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX APRIL 144.3O 143.4O 9:00A.M. S&P CS 20 CITY MoM% SA APRIL -0.15% -0.05% 10:00A.M. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE  JUNE 62.5O 63.3O Have a GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US S&P Home Price Index Higher as S&P (MoM) & (YoY) also Better Posted: 29 Jun 2010 06:03 AM PDT S&P/CS Composite-20 (YOY):           Survey: 3.4%     Actual: 3.81%     Prior: 2.3%     S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind:    Survey:144.3     Actual: 144.56     Prior: 143.4      S&P/CS 20 City (MoM%) SA:              Survey: -0.10%     Actual: .44%     Prior: -.05%     Revised: -.15 Market Stable on the news.

Canada Raw Materials Figures Down, IPPI Same as Prior Posted: 29 Jun 2010 05:37 AM PDT

Forex Quick: EUR/USD holding support after move lower Posted: 29 Jun 2010 05:17 AM PDT Forex Quick: EUR/USD holding support after move lower

US S&P Composite Data this Morning at 9AM Posted: 29 Jun 2010 05:09 AM PDT

Eur/Jpy at weakest level since Nov. 2001 Posted: 29 Jun 2010 01:36 AM PDT Eur/Jpy has traded down to 107.80, its weakest level since Nov. 2001. The global equity markets are extremely soft with European markets off 2-3% and the S&P Futures down 14.00. The Eur/Jpy sell off may be attributed to these weak markets, as the JPY has become the risk averse currency.

UK Net Lending m/m Posted: 29 Jun 2010 01:32 AM PDT The GBP traded slightly lower after the release of worse than expected final mortgage approvals out of the UK, but net lending came in better for the month of May. The details are as follows: Net Lending to Individuals (m/m) - Survey: 0.9B   Actual: 1.5B   Prior: 0.4B Final Mortgage Approvals - Survey: 52K   Actual: 50K   Prior: 51K

Noyer on the wires…. Posted: 28 Jun 2010 11:32 PM PDT ECB’s Noyer made the following comments: Needs 5-10 years of budget tightening to exit from the crisis. The French government can cut the deficit without hurting growth. French growth in 2011 is seen around 2 percent. We have no major problems with French banks. Countries need to stop building up debt. The ECB will make sure there is enough liquidity after the repayment of 12 month funds. Some European banks may suffer, but the ECB will make sure there are no more problems.

Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator Posted: 28 Jun 2010 11:02 PM PDT The market had a limited to reacion to June’s Swiss consumption indicator which came in at 1.74; lower than the prior reading of 1.76. The fran currently trades off session lows against the USD.

EUR/JPY Posted: 28 Jun 2010 09:16 PM PDT Yesterday we noted that the EUR/JPY pair found support at the 109.52 level, which was the 0.0% retracement line on the move from the high on June 21st to the low on the 24th. In the last three hours a move has been made through that level and it seems that some support has now been found around the 109.00 figure; the hourly chart shows support was found at this level back in the beginning on June. If support holds, we should be looking back to 109.52 as the next topside target.

6-29 Economic Calendar Posted: 28 Jun 2010 08:51 PM PDT

Japan’s Employment Report / Industrial Production Posted: 28 Jun 2010 05:04 PM PDT Japan’s May Employment Report came out weaker than expected, however the Yen and the rest of the market has had no reaction this release as risk trades marginally better than the prior days close. Industrial Production was close to expectations but also slightly worse than expected. Jobless Rate - Survey:5.0%   Actual:5.2%   Prior:5.1% Job-to-Applicant Ratio - Survey:0.49   Actual:0.50   Prior:0.48 Industrial Production (MoM) - Survey:0.0%   Actual:-0.1%   Prior:1.3% Industrial Production (YoY) - Survey:20.3%   Actual:20.2%   Prior:25.9%

Forex Evening Report- June 28 2010 Posted: 28 Jun 2010 01:30 PM PDT Forex Evening Report- June 28 2010

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EUR/GBP Facing double bottom at major support
• Forex Quick: USD/CAD goal post pressure on 1h timeframe
• Forex Morning Report- June 28th
• Personal Income and Personal Spending Remain Unchanged
• US Personal Spending and Personal Income Data Due at 8:30AM
• Eur/Jpy trading at 100 hour M/A
• 6-28 Economic Calendar
• Japan’s May Retail Sales
• UK Home Track House Prices
• G-20 Statement

EUR/GBP Facing double bottom at major support Posted: 28 Jun 2010 06:40 AM PDT EUR/GBP Facing double bottom at major support

Forex Quick: USD/CAD goal post pressure on 1h timeframe Posted: 28 Jun 2010 06:15 AM PDT Forex Quick: USD/CAD goal post pressure on 1h timeframe

Forex Morning Report- June 28th Posted: 28 Jun 2010 06:00 AM PDT Forex Morning Report- June 28th

Personal Income and Personal Spending Remain Unchanged Posted: 28 Jun 2010 05:42 AM PDT Personal Income:           Survey: 0.5%         Actual: 0.4%        Prior: 0.4%         Revised: 0.5% Personal Spending:        Survey: 0.1%         Actual: 0.2%         Prior: 0.0%        PCE Deflator:    Survey: 1.8%         Actual: 1.9%         Prior: 2.0%      PCE Core(MoM):     Survey: 0.1%         Actual: .2%         Prior: 0.1%      PCE Core(YoY):    Survey: 1.2%         Actual: 1.3%         Prior: 1.2%   EUR/USD stays calm on the news.

US Personal Spending and Personal Income Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 28 Jun 2010 04:57 AM PDT

Eur/Jpy trading at 100 hour M/A Posted: 27 Jun 2010 10:20 PM PDT In a very quiet session thus far Eur/Jpy has been trading near its 100 hour M/A (110.71) , without yet breaking above. It will be interesting to see upon the European open if the pair can break above and subsequently trade above 111.00. If this occurs 111.50-60 level should act as resistance with both the 50% fibo and 200 hour M/A (111.60) nearby. If the pair holds another run down to its previously tested low of 109.51 is likely.

6-28 Economic Calendar Posted: 27 Jun 2010 10:06 PM PDT

Japan’s May Retail Sales Posted: 27 Jun 2010 05:51 PM PDT Japan’s May Retail Sales readings were weaker than expected, however the market did not react to the release. The details are as follows: Retail Trade (MoM) sa - Survey:-0.1%   Actual: -2.0%  Prior:0.5% Large Retailers’ Sales - Survey:-2.9%   Actual:-4.0%   Prior:-3.6% Retail Trade (YoY)  - Survey:4.8%   Actual:2.8%   Prior:4.9%

UK Home Track House Prices Posted: 27 Jun 2010 04:07 PM PDT UK’s June Hometrack Housing Prices survey rose 2.1% for the year (2.0% prior) and 0.1% for the month (0.2% prior,) giving risk a light bid off session lows.

G-20 Statement Posted: 27 Jun 2010 03:56 PM PDT The G-20 statement contained the following comments, which have a minimal affect on the opening: G-20 document to say growth returning, recovery uneven and fragile. Statement to highlight need for ’sustainable’ budgets. Statement to allow for differentiated budget plans. Statement to say global recovery faster than expected. Statement to highlight risks of current account imbalances. Statement to highlight need to safeguard economy. Statement to pledge to at least halve deficits by 2013. Statement to pledge to stabilize Debt-to-GDP ratio by 2016. Says policies to be tailored to national circumstances. Statement fiscal targets will apply to advanced economies. G-20 may back use of bank tax for some countries. ‘Sound fiscal finances’ essential for global growth. G-20 may call for increase in bank capital. New bank capital rules to phased in over time, implemented by the end of 2012. G-20 calls for currency flexibility in some emerging markets. Stimulus restoring private demand on lending. Bank capital will be ’significantly’ higher. Statement commits to meeting UN development goals by 2015. Strengthen oversight of hedge funds and derivatives. Exchange rate flexibility should reflect fundamentals. Sound fiscal stance are essential for countries. Sees risk that synchronizing cuts may hurt growth. Statement calls for coordination of Derivatives regulation. Says countries can use a range of policies, bank taxes. Biggest banks should have more intensive supervision. G-20 underscores need for offshore oil exploration saftey. Merkel (EUR): G-20 agrees on deficit and debt goals. g-20 agrees to halve deficits by 2013. G-20 agrees to start debt reductions by 2016. Haper (CAD): New risks in global economy have emerged. Must get fiscal ‘houses to order.’ G-20 should halve deficits by 2013. G-20 should reduce unemployment, poverty. G-20 is walking deficit-growth ‘tightrope.’ Osborne (GBP): UK budget received well by credit rating firms. Monetary policy wont be used to inflate debt away. UK budget aligned with G-20 aims. Monetary policy will aid growth in case of slowdown. G-20 stance on hedge fund rules helps UK. Obama (USD): US topline budget number must ’stay firm.’ Has taken several steps on deficit. Expects China will be serious on Yuan policy. China’s currency going to go up significantly. US ‘pleased’ China made this first step, positive thing. German deficit plans not more front-loaded than US. Greece has to act immediately on deficit. Global recovery is still ‘fragile.’ Countries with surplus should seek to spur growth. US has already said it will halve deficit by 2013.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Weekend Technical Commentary: USDCAD
• Weekend Technical Review: USDJPY
• Weekend Technical Review: USDCHF
• Weekend Technical Review: GBPUSD
• Weekend Technical Review: EURUSD
• Key Economic Releases and Events for next weeks trading
• G20 Meeting increases weekend risk
• Forex QUICK…STOP in GBPUSD
• Forex QUICK: GBPUSD finding resistance at 1.5010
• Forex Midday Report - June 25

Weekend Technical Commentary: USDCAD Posted: 25 Jun 2010 03:31 PM PDT

Weekend Technical Review: USDJPY Posted: 25 Jun 2010 12:54 PM PDT

Weekend Technical Review: USDCHF Posted: 25 Jun 2010 12:53 PM PDT

Weekend Technical Review: GBPUSD Posted: 25 Jun 2010 12:53 PM PDT

Weekend Technical Review: EURUSD Posted: 25 Jun 2010 12:52 PM PDT

Key Economic Releases and Events for next weeks trading Posted: 25 Jun 2010 12:37 PM PDT

G20 Meeting increases weekend risk Posted: 25 Jun 2010 11:10 AM PDT The G20 meeting this weekend increases the traders risk. The expectation is for a neutral report/communique. There may be some disagreement behind closed doors as far as the method behind exiting out of a crisis with the EUROZONE members and the UK focusing their efforts on debt reduction, while the US would prefer they focus on spend, spend, spend (or not be too austere in their austerity), but it is unlikely that any discussion will change minds. China has allowed its currency to float/appreciate albeit at a moderate pace. ALthough the market expects a modest move going forward, the fact the Yuan has come off the peg to the dollar and the Peoples Bank of China is intent on making it float against a basket of currencies. This is contributing to the rise in the EURUSD/GBPUSD which has benefitted from the peg to the stronger dollar over the last few months.  China may want to limit the Yuans gain against the EURO and GBP and allow the action to be felt against the dollar - at least for the time being. The rise in the EURUSD and GBPUSD have also benefitted from some better technicals which are testing resistance with the GBPUSD at the 100 day moving average (at 1.5048) and the EURUSD at trendline resistance (at 1.2375).   Although if it were not the weekend and the position could be monitored minute to minute, selling against these key levels would be the obvious trade. However, with the higher weekend event risk, a gap higher above these key levels would be a concern.  In trading it is always better to live to fight another day.  Monitoring the risk and controlling the risk is paramount for success as a trader.  When risk is increased - and this weekend risk is increased - it is best to take that fact into consideration.  So be careful and be sure to evaluate your risk before the weekend close at 4 PM ET.

Forex QUICK…STOP in GBPUSD Posted: 25 Jun 2010 10:33 AM PDT The GBPUSD moved back above the 1.5010 level. The next target becomes the 1.5042 level which is the 100 day MA for the pair. The price has been below the 100 day MA since January 21st. I would expect the market to slow there. The USDCHF is trading around its 100 day MA level at 1.0945 area but rallies continue to be sold as a result, don’t fade the trend.

Forex QUICK: GBPUSD finding resistance at 1.5010 Posted: 25 Jun 2010 10:27 AM PDT

Forex Midday Report - June 25 Posted: 25 Jun 2010 09:30 AM PDT Forex Midday Report - June 25

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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Forex Webinar taught by Shawn Powell Tuesday Posted: 26 Jun 2010 04:26 PM PDT Join FXDD for a special Forex Webinar taught by Shawn Powell Tuesday June 29 2010 at 4pm New York Time - Register Here

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