Thursday, September 30, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Chicago PMI Strong

Posted: 30 Sep 2010 06:45 AM PDT

Chicago purchasing manager data comes out much stronger at 60.4 vs. a projected 55.5 and a prior 56.7.

Chicago PMI Data Due at 9:45AM

Posted: 30 Sep 2010 06:32 AM PDT

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Forex Morning Report- Sept 30

Posted: 30 Sep 2010 06:30 AM PDT


Forex Morning Report- Sept 30

Canada GDP Stays According to Forecast

Posted: 30 Sep 2010 05:34 AM PDT

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Jobless Claims Lessen as GDP Rises but Still Subpar

Posted: 30 Sep 2010 05:33 AM PDT

GDP QoQ(Annualized):      Survey: 1.6%          Actual: 1.7%            Prior:  1.6%         

Personal Consumption:     Survey: 2.0%          Actual: 2.2%           Prior:  2.0%          

GDP Price Index:     Survey:  1.9%         Actual:  1.9%       Prior:  1.9%       

Core PCE (QoQ):    Survey:  1.1%         Actual: 1.0%        Prior: 1.1%       

Jobless Claims:     Survey: 460K    Actual: 453K    Prior: 465K    Revised: 469K   

Continuing Claims:      Survey: 4473K    Actual: 4457K    Prior: 4489K    Revised: 4540K

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.30.2010

Posted: 30 Sep 2010 05:30 AM PDT

bob-slade-forex-2-150x200Good Morning:

The continued sovereign debt plaguing Europe seems to be taking a back seat lately.  The markets are more focused on the positive economic data coming out of Germany and France-thus the Euro rally that we have witnessed during the past few weeks.
The Irish government announced that the bailout of Anglo Irish Bank may cost upwards of 29-34 billion euros.
Also, Moody’s downgraded Spanish debt.  Both of these events were highly expected by the markets-and did not cause much damage to the Euro overall.
 
World equity markets were lower-as are US Futures.

Oil rose, and gold climbed to another record.

Oil:$78.70                                            Gold:$1314.80

TIME FOR EST. PRIOR
8:30A.M. GDP QoQ (ANNUALIZED) 2Q T 1.60% 1.60%
8:30A.M. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION 2Q T 2.00% 2.00%
8:30A.M. GDP RICE INDEX 2Q T 1.90% 1.90%
8:30A.M. CORE PCE QoQ 2Q T 1.10% 1.10%
8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 25-Sep 460K 465K
8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS 18-Sep 4468K    4489K
9:45A.M. CHICAGO PURCHASING MGR. SEPT.      55.9O      56.7O
10:00A.M. NAPM -MILWAUKEE SEPT. 58.O 59.O

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US Jobless Claims & GDP Price Index Data at 8:30AM

Posted: 30 Sep 2010 05:05 AM PDT

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Canada GDP Data Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 30 Sep 2010 04:56 AM PDT

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Fisher Speaks

Posted: 30 Sep 2010 02:15 AM PDT

Paul Fisher, BOE Executive Director, made the following comments while speaking at the Loan Market Association Syndicated Loans Conference in London:

  • UK banks will take some years to recover.
  • Lending capacity of UK banks is still impaired.
  • Plenty of evidence that QE worked in restoring liquidity.
  • BOE can’t intervene to aid specific markets.
  • Lending to firms is more expensive versus pre-crisis.
  • Most markets have recovered to some degree.

EUR/USD Reaches 0.0% Line And Retreats

Posted: 30 Sep 2010 02:10 AM PDT

Before we mention that the next topside target for the euro was 1.3646, and after a push following a slightly better Italian CPI release a few minutes ago it made a new session high of 1.3646. After touching the line, it has traded lower and it now in the ballpark of 1.3636.

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Eurozone/Italian CPI

Posted: 30 Sep 2010 02:04 AM PDT

  • Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate (y/y) - Survey: 1.8%   Actual: 1.8%  Prior: 1.6%
  • Italian CPI (m/m) - Survey: 0.0%   Actual: -0.2%   Prior: 0.2%

In 10 Minutes….

Posted: 30 Sep 2010 01:54 AM PDT

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USD/CHF Finding Some Hourly Resistance At .97918

Posted: 30 Sep 2010 01:39 AM PDT

With the two prior hourly candlesticks finding resistance at .97918, which is the 23.6% retracement line on the move from Sept 21 highs to yesterday’s lows, the pair may be looking at .9733 as the next downside target.

9-30-hourly

Sterling Trades Higher Following BOE Credit Conditions Survey

Posted: 30 Sep 2010 01:32 AM PDT

  • Q3 Corporate Credit Available Net: 7.8% vs 7.1% in Q2
  • Q3 Secured Household Credit Available net: 8.3% vs 6.3% in Q2
  • Q3 Unsecured Household Credit Available Net: - 3.5% vs -0.6% in Q2

German Unemployment Change Better Than Expected

Posted: 30 Sep 2010 12:57 AM PDT

The Euro traded slightly higher in reaction to Germany’s unemployment change which was -40K versus the forecast of -20K and prior showing of -17K.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

IMF on the Wires

Posted: 29 Sep 2010 07:02 AM PDT

IMF says Australian Dollar mildly overvalued.

Forex Morning Report- Sept 29

Posted: 29 Sep 2010 06:40 AM PDT


Forex Morning Report- Sept 29

Canada Industrial Product Price & Raw Materials Released with Stronger Data

Posted: 29 Sep 2010 05:31 AM PDT

Industrial Production Price Index MoM:    Survey:  0.2%          Actual: 0.4            Prior: 0.1%           Revised: 0.0

Raw Materials Price Index:      Survey: 0.5%        Actual:  2.2           Prior: 1.8%           Revised:  1.9

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.29.2010

Posted: 29 Sep 2010 05:23 AM PDT

bob-slade-forex-trading-3-150x200Good Morning:

A fairly quiet overnight session:

The EUR/USD pair traded within the 1.36 handle-as the Euro rally stayed on track. Even though the sovereign debt issues within the Euro Zone continue to plague the region, the markets seem to be shrugging off these concerns for now.  Tomorrow the markets will  be informed of the full cost for the Irish government to bailout Anglo Irish bank.  This could weigh heavily on the Euro Zone in general and add pressure to the Euro in the coming days.
Also Moody’s is looking to see if they will downgrade Spain, as the regions 4th largest economy struggles to grow.
 
The JPY remained under 84, as the Tanken Report data released overnight showed that the manufacturing sector was stronger than expected.  The survey regarding future expectations showed that the business sector is extremely cautious in regards to 2011 growth.

The USD continues to lose ground as speculation mounts that the Fed will increase their purchase of government debt to kick start the lackluster economy.

Asian equity markets were mixed, and European markets slightly higher as we speak.  US Futures are also pointing to a small positive opening.

Oil rose, and Gold set a new record.

Oil:$76.29                                             Gold:$1310.60

NO MAJOR DATA out of North America today  

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Canada Industrial Product Price data 8:30AM

Posted: 29 Sep 2010 05:12 AM PDT

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KOF Barometer Better Than Expected

Posted: 29 Sep 2010 02:31 AM PDT

The market had a limited reaction to the Swiss KOF economic barometer which came in at 2.21; slightly better than the 2.12 forecast and 2.18 prior showing.

ECB says 182 banks bid for 3 month funds

Posted: 29 Sep 2010 02:19 AM PDT

Eur/Usd gains 25 points in a flash, trading at 1.3605.

Eurozone Economic Confidence highest since Jan. 2008

Posted: 29 Sep 2010 02:03 AM PDT

Eurozone Economic Confidence came in at 103.2, stronger than the 101.3 expected and the strongest reading since Jan. 2008.

The Business Climate Indicator came in at 0.77, stronger than the 0.58 expected.

Eur/Usd gained 20 points upon release, currently trading at 1.3600.

Swiss KOF Barometer In Less Than 1 Hour…

Posted: 29 Sep 2010 01:37 AM PDT

chf-kof-barometer-9-29

UK Net Lending/Final Mortgage Approvals/Index of Services

Posted: 29 Sep 2010 01:33 AM PDT

The GBP traded slightly higher after net lending to individuals (m/m) came in at 1.5B; much better than the survey of 0.5B and prior showing of 0.3B. The following data was also released:

  • Final Mortgage Approvals - Survey:47K   Actual: 47K   Prior: 45K
  • Index of Services (3m/3m) - Survey: 0.7%   Actual: 0.5%   Prior: 0.7%

ECB Bini Smaghi on the wires…

Posted: 29 Sep 2010 12:35 AM PDT

Speaking in Milan, ECB member Bini Smaghi made the following comments:

  • Sees non-negotiable side effects from basel III.
  • Basel III to provide more economic stability.
  • Basel regulation will outweigh costs.
  • The adjustment period will challenge monetary policy.
  • ECB to ensure there is effective monetary policy in the new environment.
  • Price stability is the primary goal.
  • Basel III would raise bank demand for ECB funds.

EUR/USD Approaching Full Daily Retracement

Posted: 29 Sep 2010 12:15 AM PDT

The EUR/USD pair is nearing a full retracement on the daily chart on the move from the high on April 12th to the low on June 7th with the 100.0% fibo line coming in at 1.36910. After moving through the 200 day moving average, now at 1.31952, the pair has traded continually higher. If momentum continues we should see a full retracement.

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Due Out At 4:30 (eastern standard time)

Posted: 28 Sep 2010 11:05 PM PDT

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9-29 Economic Calendar

Posted: 28 Sep 2010 08:55 PM PDT

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China’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI

Posted: 28 Sep 2010 07:37 PM PDT

The September HSBC Manufacturing PMI reading was released better than the prior month’s release (51.9) at 52.9. The market has had a no reaction and has remained muted throughout the Asian session after a USD sell off during NY.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

US Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Data Weak

Posted: 28 Sep 2010 07:01 AM PDT

Consumer Confidence:    Survey: 52.1     Actual: 48.5       Prior: 53.5     Revised: 53.2

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index:      Survey: 6     Actual: -2      Prior: 11

US Consumer Confidence & Richmond Fed Data at 10AM

Posted: 28 Sep 2010 06:49 AM PDT

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Forex Morning Report- Sept 28

Posted: 28 Sep 2010 06:25 AM PDT

Forex Morning Report- Sept 28

Bank Of England’s Posen on the Wires

Posted: 28 Sep 2010 06:04 AM PDT

Bank of England’s Posen: Further easing should be taken.

US S&P/CaseShiller Overall Data Decent

Posted: 28 Sep 2010 06:02 AM PDT

S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind:    Actual: 148.91    Prior: 147.97     Revised: 147.95 

S&P/CS 20 City (MoM%) SA:              Survey: -0.10%     Actual: -.13     Prior: 0.28%     Revised: .24

S&P/CS Composite-20 (YOY):           Survey: 3.10%     Actual: 3.18%     Prior: 4.23%    Revised: 4.21

US CaseShiller Data Due at 9AM

Posted: 28 Sep 2010 05:06 AM PDT

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CBI Realized Sales Better Than Expected

Posted: 28 Sep 2010 03:01 AM PDT

The pound is continuing its run after CBI came in at 49 versus the survey of 27 and prior showing of 35.

Euro Gains on Fitch Comments

Posted: 28 Sep 2010 02:58 AM PDT

The Euro has been trading continually higher after Fitch stated that Ireland may not suffer further downgrades if a favorable cost plan can be designed for Anglo Irish Bank.

UK CBI In Less Than 1 Hour…

Posted: 28 Sep 2010 02:11 AM PDT

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UK Current Account Better Than Expected & Final GDP As Expected

Posted: 28 Sep 2010 01:33 AM PDT

GBP traded higher after current account came in at -7.4B; much better than the forecast and prior reading of -9.60B,

The final GDP reading was in line at 1.2%. Following these releases the GBP made gains against all of the major currencies making a new session high of 1.5841 against the USD.

9-28-hourly1

After finding some hourly support at 1.57793, the pair has advanced against the USD. If the upward momentum continues, we may see the pair revisit the 1.58650 level.

ECB’s Mersch

Posted: 28 Sep 2010 01:13 AM PDT

  • Inflation seen at around 1.5% in “coming years”.
  • Seeing signs of self-sustaining recovery.
  • No room for complacency in the Euro; too early to claim Euro victory.
  • Fiscal correction in Euro countries is essential.
  • Governments must send a message of a sound macro policy.
  • 2011 should reflect credit consolidation.

USD/JPY Trading Sideways

Posted: 28 Sep 2010 12:40 AM PDT

Following the BOJ intervention early Friday morning, the pair over corrected itself as the market saw a good opportunity to sell; the pair then traded down to 84.110. Following the move, the pair has tested the 84.110 low twice and has traded inside of a 30 point range for the past 24 hours. Resistance is being shown at the 84.410 level, which is the 23.6 fibo line on the move from the high of 85.380 to the low of 84.110 on the 24th. Adding to that resistance is the 100 hour moving average which comes in at 84.416.

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A break through to the upside may see the pair visit the 38.2% line at 84.595. A push lower may see further intervention….

Also Being Released at 4:30….

Posted: 28 Sep 2010 12:08 AM PDT

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Eur/Usd testing 100 hour M/A

Posted: 28 Sep 2010 12:08 AM PDT

Eur/Usd is testing its 100 hour M/A of 1.3404. If the pair can break below the next support lies at 1.3350-55 level. If Eur/Usd holds a move back up to 1.3460-65 is likely.

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UK Current Account Due Out at 4:30 EST

Posted: 27 Sep 2010 11:59 PM PDT

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Monday, September 27, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Forex Morning Report- Sept 27

Posted: 27 Sep 2010 06:25 AM PDT

Forex Morning Report- Sept 27

EUR/USD testing the longer term 50% fibonacci level

Posted: 27 Sep 2010 05:22 AM PDT

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EUR/USD is currently testing the longer term 50% fibonacci level from the move down which started in November of 2009 to the low made in May of 2010. The 50% Fibo comes in at 1.3508. A break above would send the pair heading towards the 61.8% level which comes in at 1.3893, with a resistance level in between the two Fibonaccis at 1.3685 area. If the pair fails to break higher, traders may see a return to test the 200 Day moving average which lies at 1.3200 today (green line.) Below this, the 38.2% level comes in at 1.3123.

We are back to full trading with most world markets open and as such there will be momentum which will help the market to choose a direction. Look for clear breaks to help signal entry points on the shorter time frames.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.27.2010

Posted: 27 Sep 2010 05:17 AM PDT

bob-slade-forex-1-150x200Good Morning:

The start of the week saw the FX markets trade range bound throughout the Asian and European morning sessions.

The Euro weakened a bit on speculation that Euro Zone banks will need more funds-slowed demand for Euro Zone assets.  The Euro is again under pressure as Ireland will disclose the cost of bailing out Anglo Irish Bank Corp later this week.  The euro also lost ground as reports from Der Spiel that the EC lacks confidence in German regional lenders.
The Yuan appreciated to it’s highest level since 1993, as speculation mounts that the Chinese will allow faster appreciation of it’s currency.

 World equity markets are higher as are US Futures at this time.

The takeover markets had a very busy weekend-as Unilever agreed to buy Alberto Culver for $3.7 billion USD in cash, and Southwest airlines has agreed to but Air Tran for $1.4 billion USD in cash.  

Oil rose-and gold continues to stay in record high territory.

Oil:$76.80                                 Gold:$1301.10

 

TIME FOR EST. PRIOR
8:30A.M. CHICAGO FED NAT ACTIVITY INDEX AUG. O.OO
10:30A.M. DALLAS FED MANUF. ACTIVITY SEPT. -13.5O

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Eur/Usd under pressure as Moody’s downgrades AIB’s debt

Posted: 27 Sep 2010 02:04 AM PDT

Eur/Usd is making fresh lows brought upon by Moody’s downgrade of Anglo Irish Bank’s unguaranteed debt, from A3 to BAA3. The pair has traded down to 1.3425.

Eurozone Annual M3 Money Supply growth 1.1%

Posted: 27 Sep 2010 01:03 AM PDT

Eurozone M3 Money Supply y/y came in at 1.1%, stronger than the 0.4% expected and prior reading of 0.2%.

Eur/Usd currently trades at 1.3460, unaffected by release.

Trichet on the wires

Posted: 27 Sep 2010 12:15 AM PDT

Trichet says;

* ECB welcomes creation of ESRB

* European Systemic Risk Board is complimentary to other institutions and won’t change ECB’s statutory role

* ESRB has to act fruitfully with other institutions

Eur/Usd has just come off 20 points on the heels of comments, now trading at 1.3455.

Kaieda on the wires

Posted: 26 Sep 2010 11:25 PM PDT

Japanese Economy Minister Kaieda had this to say to reporters in Tokyo;

* BOJ should debate changing rule on bond buying’ not of opinion law should be revised

* More BOJ fund injections may affect currency rates

* Japan’s economy is in a severe situation, in a standstill

9-27 Economic Calendar

Posted: 26 Sep 2010 09:15 PM PDT

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Japan’s Trade Balance

Posted: 26 Sep 2010 05:06 PM PDT

Japan’s August Trade Balance reading posted its first year over year drop in 15 months; however USD/JPY remained unchanged on session highs. The action to open the trading week has been muted without any major events to report over the weekend, following last Friday’s intervention fears at ~these levels on aggressive orders that sparked a move through 85? We remain vigilant and cautious being short the USD/JPY pair. Corporate Services Price Index came in slightly higher than the prior month and expectations. The details of the releases are as follows:

  • Trade Balance Total - Survey:200B   Actual:103.2B   Prior:804.2B
  • Adjusted Trade Balance - Survey:522.1B   Actual:589.7B   Prior:610.4B
  • Trade Exports (YoY) - Survey:19.0%   Actual:15.8%   Prior:23.5%
  • Trade Imports (YoY) -Survey:17.5%   Actual:17.9%   Prior:15.7%
  • Corp Service Price Index - Survey:-1.2%   Actual:   Prior:-1.2%

On the chart below we could see the intervention fear rally from last week still kept the pair inside the channel, likely on further selling from Japanese exporters, bearish technicals (crossing mavg.) and continued pessimistic tone on the USD (presumption of more easing from the Fed.)

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Saturday, September 25, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Forex Weekend Report- Sept 24

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 01:00 PM PDT

Forex Weekend Report- Sept 24

Next Trading Webinar Tuesday Sept 28 2010

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 12:36 PM PDT

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Do you have a desire to improve your understanding of the Forex market? Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell teach a special Forex analysis education class at 4pm New York Time / 20:00 GMT World time Tuesday September 28th 2010. Reserve your Webinar seat now at:
https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/688088704

Friday, September 24, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Mexico Overnight Rate Stays Put

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 07:07 AM PDT

Mexico Overnight rate data realeased at 10AM comes out as predicted at 4.50% leaving the rate unchanged.

New Home Sales Drop Again

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 07:03 AM PDT

New Home Sales:        Survey: 295K           Actual: 288K           Prior: 276K         Revised: 288K

New Home Sales(MoM):     Survey: 6.9%         Actual: .0%           Prior: -12.4%         Revised: -7.7%

West Cost, Northeast good housing numbers, Midwest releases horrible data -26.1% lowest out of all of the regions.  US Homes for sale at the end of august was 206K units compared to July at 209K units, lowest since August 1968.

EUR/USD trading slightly higher on the news.

Forex Morning Report - Sept 24 2010

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 06:37 AM PDT

Forex Morning Report - Sept 24 2010

US New Homes Sales Data Due at 10AM

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 06:09 AM PDT

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Greg Michalowski is speaking at Vegas Traders Expo TODAY

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 05:52 AM PDT

We would like to wish Greg Michalowski good luck as he takes to the stage, speaking at Las Vegas Traders Expo from 11-1pm pst TODAY. Greg will also be speaking on Saturday from 1-3pm pst.

Durable Goods Orders a Touch Worse, With Core Goods Better

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 05:31 AM PDT

Durable Goods Orders:   Survey: -1.0%      Actual: -1.3%     Prior:  .3%   Revised:  .7%

Durables Ex Transportation:   Survey:  1.0%      Actual: 2.0%      Prior:  -3.8%   Revised: -2.8%

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.24.2010

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 05:31 AM PDT

bob-slade-forex-2-150x200Good Morning:

The Yen fell as speculation that the BOJ was again involved in the markets by selling JPY to keep exporters protected.
The BOJ has refused to comment on any intervention. 
The USD fell across the board-while the Euro rose as IFO data beat estimates. 

Today we have data on Durable Goods, and New Home Sales.  Early guesstimates are that Durable Goods dropped (for the 3rd month out of 4).  This may be a sign that as the economy falters globally, companies and individuals are slowing  their spending.  This is not a positive signal for economic growth overall.

Asian equity markets were mixed, Europe rose-and US Futures are looking at a positive opening this morning.
Gold hit a record of $1300+/oz in overnight trading.  The gold bug fever is on overdrive.

Oil:$75.77                                        Gold:$1300.10

TIME FOR EST. PRIOR  REVISED
8:30A.M. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS AUG. -1.00% 0.30% 0.40%
8:30A.M. DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION AUG. 1.00% -3.80% -3.70%
8:30A.M. CAP GOODS ORDERS NONDEF EX AIR AUG. 3.00% -8.00%
8:30A.M. CAP GOODS SHIP NONDEF EX AIR AUG. -1.50%
10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES  AUG. 295K 276K
10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES MoM AUG. 6.90% -12.40%  

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

US Durable Goods Orders Data 8:30AM

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 05:14 AM PDT

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Rebroadcast of FXDD webinar Thursday Sept 23 2010

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 05:00 AM PDT

fxdd_rebroadcast

Rebroadcast of FXDD webinar Thursday Sept 23 2010 - Click here to watch

German IFO

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 01:05 AM PDT

German IFO Business climate came in at 106.8, stronger than the 106.4 expected.

IFO Current Assessment came in at 109.7, stronger than the 108.7 expected.

IFO Expectations came in at 103.9, weaker than the 104 expected.

Strong numbers for the Euro as Eur/Usd has jumped 40 points to 1.3355.

Shirakawa not to resign

Posted: 23 Sep 2010 11:03 PM PDT

The Bank of Japan thwarts earlier rumors to the contrary by stating Governor Shirakawa is not to resign.

German Import Prices

Posted: 23 Sep 2010 11:01 PM PDT

German Import Prices for August came in at 0.2%, weaker than the 0.3% expected and prior reading of -0.2%.

Eur/Usd currently trades at 1.3335.

Comfirmed :Japan intervenes in usd/jpy

Posted: 23 Sep 2010 09:33 PM PDT

BOJ buys usd/jpy from 84.60 to 85.20

Rumor: BOJ intervened in USD/JPY

Posted: 23 Sep 2010 09:28 PM PDT

Unable to confirm intervention

9-24 Economic Calendar

Posted: 23 Sep 2010 08:55 PM PDT

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