Monday, May 2, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

EURUSD consolidates against support, then surges higher

Posted: 02 May 2011 07:45 AM PDT

The EURUSD consolidated with the ceiling above at the 1.4856 area, but failure to move through intraday support opened up the buying interest once again. The price moved above the ceiling level and has moved to new highs dating back to Dec 2009.

Despite better US data, AUDUSD moves higher

Posted: 02 May 2011 07:35 AM PDT

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The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to announce no change in rates in the early hours of the new day tomorrow (12:30 ET) and despite better US data in the form of ISM data, the AUDUSD seems intent on going into the meeting near 1.1000 . The pair looked like it may correct lower, falling below trendline support  earlier in the day, but the price has just broken back above the underside of the trendline turning the shorts into buyers. The 1.1000 level looms (the high came in at 1.1009 and will be the next target to get through.  A move below the trendline may solicit some selling/profit taking but the dip buyers seem to remain comfortable.

EU Juncker says strength of Euro not worrying

Posted: 02 May 2011 07:29 AM PDT

He adds a Greek restructuring is not an option.

BOE King says high debt levels pose massive challenges.

Posted: 02 May 2011 07:28 AM PDT

The EURGBP has moved higher on the back of Juncker and King comments. Juncker not concerned about the EURO. King talks more bearish about economy for the UK.

ISM Ore says Manufacturing started year much stronger

Posted: 02 May 2011 07:18 AM PDT

  • Slowdown in orders not major concern
  • Employment is most encouraging
  • Obvious manufacturers are hiring
  • Manfacturers feeling signifcant price pressures
  • Great strength in export markets

The better data should provide support for the US dollar. However,  the momentum was brief.

US Construction Spending & ISM Data Both Rise

Posted: 02 May 2011 07:04 AM PDT

Construction Spending MoM:  Survey:  0.4%    Actual:  1.4%    Prior:  -1.4%  Revised:  -2.4%

ISM Manufacturing:   Survey: 59.5    Actual: 60.4    Prior:  61.2

Mar vs. Feb
Prices Paid: 85.5 vs 85.0
Production:  63.8 vs 69.0
New Orders:  61.7 vs 63.3
Backlog of Orders:  61.0 vs 52.5
Supplier Deliveries: 60.2 vs 63.1
Inventory Change:  53.6  vs 47.4
Employment: 62.7 vs 63.0

ISM Prices Paid:   Survey: 83.0  Actual: 85.5   Prior:  85.0

EURUSD keeps bullish bias, but runs into intraday ceiling area

Posted: 02 May 2011 06:16 AM PDT

The EURUSD has kept the bullish bias in tact in NY trade.  After a move lower after the report of Bin Ladens death the EURUSD has moved back higher.

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On the daily chart the price tested the underside of the channel trendline which was broken last week. That level came in at the 1.4760 level. The low reaced 1.4762.This level, if broken to the downside should be a signal the upside is over for the time being and a move lower is likely.

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The hourly chart has the 100 bar MA at the 1.4768 level currently which is just above that key level on the daily chart.  A sign of market strength would be the holding of the 100 bar MA  on any dips. This moving average is moving higher so be aware of this key level on any dips. The price has been able to hold above the 100 hour MA since April 26th (blue line in the chart above). 

Finally on the 5 minute chart the 1.4856 level  was a peak high on Friday and was an area where sellers sold against today. Although a move above the level occurred in the Asian session, the move was brief.  In the last 15 minutes the price went up to the level once again and came off. A break above should open up  the market for further buying but until then the longs in the market might look to use it to define risk and take some profit. 

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US Construction Spending & ISM Data Due at 10AM

Posted: 02 May 2011 06:02 AM PDT

 

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Bobbys Corner-Open Market-May.2.2011

Posted: 02 May 2011 06:00 AM PDT

bob-slade-forex-trading-6-150x200Good Morning:

News that Osama bin Laden has been killed in a US operation in Pakistan rattled world markets.   This is a very positive news on the war on terrorism.  His presence for the past 10 years has been the sign of international terrorism.  We are awaiting further details-that are slowly trickling out of the news arena.
He was 54 years old, and had used his families inheritance to build al-Qaeda in 1988.  He had spent the time before this fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan.
He was the main catalyst for many domestic, and foreign US initiatives in a major way.  The security that Americans and worldwide air travelers adhere to today are the direct result of the 9-11 bombings of the World Trade Center in New York.

Equity markets rose on the news of OBL’s demise.  US Futures are also higher this morning.

Markets in the UK, China, Singapore and Hong Kong were closed for the May Day holiday.

Oil dropped the most in 2 weeks, and the Dollar Index broke a 9 day decline.

Silver dropped after the CME initiated a higher margin requirement (approx 13 % higher)-which caused the initial drop-Silver has since
recouped some of the price drop.

Oil:$112.44                                                             Gold:$1552.50 

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

USDCAD falls after higher price data

Posted: 02 May 2011 05:54 AM PDT

The Raw Material Price index rose by 5.7% while the Industrial Product Price Index rose by 0.9%. Both stronger than expectations ((2.5% and 0.7% were the estimates). The reports have pushed the USDCAD lower.

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The pair tested the 100 hour MA earlier at the 0.9501 level but failed to break through. This should keep the pressure on the pair. A move above the key level is needed to give bulls confidence.

On the downside, the next target is being tested at the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. A move below this level should solicit additional selling with the 200 bar MA the next target at the 0.9474 level.  Holding the level should find resistance at the underside of the trendline at 0.9492 area.

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The NY Opening Forex Commentary

Posted: 02 May 2011 05:40 AM PDT

Canada Raw Materials Price Index Much Higher & Industrial Prodcut Price Also Better

Posted: 02 May 2011 05:33 AM PDT

Raw Materials Price Index:  Survey: 2.5%   Actual: 5.7%  Prior: 1.8%  Revised:  2.1%

Mar vs. Feb
Raw Materials:  153.4 vs 169.3
Ex-Mineral Fuels: 133.0 vs 158.5
Mineral Fuels: 182.6 vs 184.7
Vegtable Products: 109.8 vs 159.3
Animal Products: 108.5 vs 116.6
Wood: 88.8 vs 90.1
Ferrous Materials:  150.4 vs 171.2
Non-Ferrous Materials: 233.8 vs 299.7
Non-Metallic Minerals: 149.6 vs 156.6

Industrial Product Price Index:   Survey: 0.7%   Actual: 0.9%  Prior: 0.7%  Revised: 0.9%

The Week Ahead from FXDD

Posted: 02 May 2011 05:19 AM PDT

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S&P economist says EUR exchange more a concern

Posted: 02 May 2011 04:32 AM PDT

Jean Michael Six chief European economist at S&P says that tthe strength of the Euro may prove to be a greater concern for European peripheral nations - superceding the higher interest rates.  The higher Euro makes countries like Spain, Italy and Portugal less competitive abroad.

Canada Industrial Product Price Index & Raw Materials Price Index Data Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 02 May 2011 04:20 AM PDT

 

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