Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• A good one. Mark Haines… Peace to you and to your family
• Geithner on the Wires
• ECB Starks says global economy very far from sustainable growth
• Focus shifts back and forth in the EURUSD
• EU Commissioner Damanaki says Greece Eurozone Membership at risk
• ECB Stark says crisis is not over
• ECB Draghi sees serious downside risk to growth
• Geithner says several more years to go on housing
• ECB Draghi says response to crisis has been effective
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary for May 24th
• US Durable Goods Orders Fall 3.6%
• US Mortgage Applications rose 1.1% on week
• US Durable Goods Orders Data Due at 8:30AM
• S&P’s Cullinan on the wires…
• Irish Minister Howlin says economic outlook still highly uncertain

A good one. Mark Haines… Peace to you and to your family Posted: 25 May 2011 07:06 AM PDT Mark Haines brought humanity to business news. He was tough at times.  He was emotional at other times. That made him more human then others.  The tearful good bye to Erin Burnett just a few days ago will be remembered.  The way he broadcast September 11th will be remembered.   God bless his family

Geithner on the Wires Posted: 25 May 2011 06:31 AM PDT Says: People see a very tough economy today U.S. has ‘several more years to go’ on housing Unemployment to come down ‘ too slowly for everybody’ ‘War of attition’ against financial freedom Some seeking to ‘starve’ agencies of funding New financial reform rules need ‘traction’ ‘Dark forces’ working against financial reform Seeks to ‘unfreeze’ congressional confirmation ‘ A lot of prgress’ toward corporate tax reform He ‘absolutely’ wont preside over U.S. default Sees bipartisan pragmatism on fiscal issues Congress leadership understands debt Some pretending not to understand debt ceiling Congress leaders understand debt ceiling necessity ‘This is all theater’ on debt ceiling dispute Deficit issues don’t need to be solved all at once U.S. deficits unsustainably high now Sees ‘lots of paths’ to reasonable fiscal deal Europe still has ‘very serious problem’ Problem is within Europe’s capacity

ECB Starks says global economy very far from sustainable growth Posted: 25 May 2011 06:31 AM PDT Tackling debt industrial nations greatest challenge ECB has begun to retrace loose monetary policy Too loose policy leads to asset bubbles European recovery mostly self sustaining Greece needs drastic turnaround of economic policy Higher inflation driven by energy prices

Focus shifts back and forth in the EURUSD Posted: 25 May 2011 06:27 AM PDT Focus on Greece. Focus on weak US. Focus back on Greece.  The latest move lower was prompted by the comment from the EU commissioner who said that Greece must adhere to strict guidelines or get out of the Eurozone.  The EURUSD prior to that move higher on weaker US data in the form of Durable Goods. Yesterdays close came in at 1.4198. Staying below this level will be an important price on the topside.  The midpoint of the days range 1.4059.  If it can stay below that even better for the bears. Activity is very choppy in the session today.   This may break out but be careful. It is not an easy trading environment.

EU Commissioner Damanaki says Greece Eurozone Membership at risk Posted: 25 May 2011 06:16 AM PDT Greece Eurozone membership at risk (as per Athens News Agency). He adds that Greece must adhere to tough measures or return to the Drachma

ECB Stark says crisis is not over Posted: 25 May 2011 06:08 AM PDT But, says that Germany feels the crisis less than other countries

ECB Draghi sees serious downside risk to growth Posted: 25 May 2011 05:47 AM PDT Need more fiscal disciplne to foster growth Global monetary conditions are accomodative Inflation expectations must remain well anchored Inflation remains a challenge Must avoid unmanaged failure of banks

Geithner says several more years to go on housing Posted: 25 May 2011 05:46 AM PDT Also adds that unemployment to come down too slowly for everybody. Sees a very tough economy today. The administration has become increasingly more cautious about the economy as the effects of higher oil prices takes its toll on all. The Durable Goods orders number today is testament to the negative. Granted, the prior month was strong, but this months fall was weak across the board. The dollar has started to be pressured a bit with the GBPUSD making new highs for the day. THe EURUSD moves closer to erasing the declines for the day. The close yesterday came in at 1.4098. Look for some resistance against there on the first test but a move above would be bullish for the EURUSD and should lead to further dollar selling.

ECB Draghi says response to crisis has been effective Posted: 25 May 2011 05:37 AM PDT

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for May 24th Posted: 25 May 2011 05:31 AM PDT

US Durable Goods Orders Fall 3.6% Posted: 25 May 2011 05:30 AM PDT Durable Goods Orders:   Survey: -2.5%    Actual: -3.6%   Prior:2.5%    Durables Ex Transportation:   Survey: 0.5%   Actual: -1.5%   Prior: 1.3%

US Mortgage Applications rose 1.1% on week Posted: 25 May 2011 04:36 AM PDT The Purchase index showed an increase of 1.5% The Refinance Index rose 0.9% The 30 Year Mortgage rate rose to 4.69 % from 4.60%.  A year ago it was at 4.8% The 15 year Mortgage rate rose to 3.78% from 3.75%.  A year ago it was at 4.25%

US Durable Goods Orders Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 25 May 2011 04:29 AM PDT

S&P’s Cullinan on the wires… Posted: 25 May 2011 03:14 AM PDT Irish growth prospects “modest”; public finances are “weak”. A Greek restructuring would not automatically mean an Irish downgrade. No fundamental change to Ireland’s position since last rating move; increase in corporate tax rate could be negative for rating. If Ireland was unable to tap capital markets at an appropriate price, that would be an issue. Format of ECB support for Irish banks are not a key rating factory.

Irish Minister Howlin says economic outlook still highly uncertain Posted: 25 May 2011 02:23 AM PDT Adds that there is no reason to cut growth forecast; hopes to re-enter bond markets next year.

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