Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- EURJPY bounces off the 100 hour MA
- “Hawkish” US think tank report being circulated
- USDJPY moves lower after weak Industrial Production
- US Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization Fall
- Traders Course with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell Tuesday at 4pm
- Gold breaks support on hourly and scoots lower.
- AUDUSD moves lower in early NY trade
- Canada International Security Transactions Higher
- US Housing Starts, Building Permits Both Fall
- The NY Opening Forex Commentary for May 17th
- Canada International Security Transactions Due at 8:30AM
- US Building Permits & Housing Starts Data at 8:30AM
- National Bank of Greece CEO says Greek banking system is in good condition despite the crisis.
- EU’s Juncker says Greek debt level is totally unsustainable now
- BOE’s King
| EURJPY bounces off the 100 hour MA Posted: 17 May 2011 07:07 AM PDT
The EURJPY is stuck between support against the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the May 3rd high to the low reached yesterday, at the 116.23 level. In between is the 200 hour MA at the 115.62 level (green line). With the price in between the “goal posts” as defined by the 100 hour and 200 hour MA, the market is saying it does not know the direction for the pair. When this happens, traders tend to use the MA levels to lean against for trades (and defining risk). Buyer against the 100 hour MA, will likely have close stops below the level. Sellers against the 200 hour MA will have tight stops on a break above. Ultimately, a move above the 38.2% retracement opens the window for further upside momentum. |
| “Hawkish” US think tank report being circulated Posted: 17 May 2011 06:38 AM PDT There is talk that a well known think tank is making some hawkish comments about the upcoming FOMC minutes. The comments are that the Fed had a healthy discussion on the exit steps but the order of those steps is not yet agreed upon. The minutes will be released tomorrow at 2 PM ET. The EURUSD is approaching intraday resistance at the 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 5 minute chart at the 1.4165/75 levels (200 bar - green line - is at 1.4165, 100 bar MA is at the 1.4175). Stay below these levels and the dollar remains slightly bullish (EURUSD slightly bearish intraday). Move above and the choppy/uncertain action remains for the pair.
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| USDJPY moves lower after weak Industrial Production Posted: 17 May 2011 06:21 AM PDT
The USDJPY moved sharply higher today on the back of BOJ Shirakawa’s bearish comments on the economy. The weaker US housing data and now weaker than expected US Industrial Production has the pair back on the defensive with support against the 38.2% of the move up from the low being tested at the 81.35 level currently. A move below the 200 bar MA (green line above) will hurt the bullish move higher today (81.25 area). Resistance against the 100 bar MA (blue line) will now be eyed for continued upside clues (at the 81.55 level).
Looking at the daily chart the move higher today reached a new month high. The pair did find sellers against the 38.2% of the move down from the 85.49 high at the 81.82 level (high reached 81.76). So although the move higher today was somewhat robust, there seems to have been willing profit taking sellers on the rally. |
| US Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization Fall Posted: 17 May 2011 06:17 AM PDT Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production came out weaker than expectations. Industrial Production fell by -0.4% vs expectations of 0.4% for the month of April. Meanwhile Capacity Utilization fell to 76.9 from a prior 77.4. The market was expecting 77.6%.
The dollar has declined slightly on the report. |
| Traders Course with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell Tuesday at 4pm Posted: 17 May 2011 06:00 AM PDT
Lesson: 04 Greg will teach his Five Most Important Rules for Currency Trading. Join us for a great class at 4pm est Tuesday. Reserve your seat now for the live class |
| Gold breaks support on hourly and scoots lower. Posted: 17 May 2011 05:57 AM PDT
Gold has moved below trendline support on the hourly chart and scooted lower (see chart above). The high for today’s trading remained both the 100 (blue line in the chart above) and the 200 bar Moving Averages (green line). This kept the bears in charge. When trendline support was broken, the pair had only one way to go….down. The pair is now approaching the key support on the daily chart at the 1472.96 level which is the 38.2% of the move up from the 2011 low to the high reached in early May. Look for some profit taking support against this level. A move below this level, however, should trigger stops and will next target the low for the month at the $1462 level.
The upside should find some resistance now at the $1484 level. This is the 38.2% of the sharp move down today (see 5 minute chart below).
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| AUDUSD moves lower in early NY trade Posted: 17 May 2011 05:48 AM PDT The AUDUSD is moving back lower in early NY trade. The price has been consolidating in a narrow range for the day with 1.0616 being the high and 1.0532 being the low. It is an inside day when compared to yesterday’s high/low range (see chart below).
The key level to eye on the downside today remains the 1.0511 level which is the 38.2% of the move up from the March 2011 low to the high reached on May 2nd. The low yesterday reached 1.0512 where willing low risk buyers entered and pushed the market back higher. A break of the level today, opens the door for further selling momentum (see chart above). On the topside, look for resistance this morning at 1.0578-91 area (see chart below) to be an important level to stay below. If the price can remain below these two moving averages (100 and 200 bar on the 5 minute chart), the bears remain in charge. A move above and the intraday up and down continues.
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| Canada International Security Transactions Higher Posted: 17 May 2011 05:33 AM PDT
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| US Housing Starts, Building Permits Both Fall Posted: 17 May 2011 05:32 AM PDT
Housing Starts: Survey: 569K Actual: 523K Prior: 549K Revised: 585K Housing Starts (MoM)%: Survey: 3.6% Actual: -10.6% Prior: 7.2% Revised: 12.9%
April vs March Building Permits: Survey: 590K Actual: 551K Prior: 594K Revised: 574K Building Permits (MoM)%: Survey: 0.9% Actual: -4.0% Prior: 11.2% Revised: 7.5%
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| The NY Opening Forex Commentary for May 17th Posted: 17 May 2011 05:03 AM PDT |
| Canada International Security Transactions Due at 8:30AM Posted: 17 May 2011 04:55 AM PDT
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| US Building Permits & Housing Starts Data at 8:30AM Posted: 17 May 2011 04:51 AM PDT
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| National Bank of Greece CEO says Greek banking system is in good condition despite the crisis. Posted: 17 May 2011 03:12 AM PDT Also commented that capital adequacy is “better than ever before”. |
| EU’s Juncker says Greek debt level is totally unsustainable now Posted: 17 May 2011 03:10 AM PDT Adds that Greece will have to implement huge reforms to improve growth potential; have to rapidly privatize many public entities. |
| Posted: 17 May 2011 02:37 AM PDT
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