Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- EURGBP falls sharply. Breaks below the recent floor at the 0.8517 level
- GBPUSD extends range higher on a break above the 100 hour MA. Will momentum continue?
- GBPUSD stays between the “Goal Posts”. Range very narrow
- EURUSD choppy break.
- ECB considering loosening the collateral criteria for loans…EURUSD reacts voilently
- EURUSD in narrow range for the week
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.7.2011
- The NY Morning Forex Commentary for December 7th 2011
- The Early NY Review
- US Mortgage Applications rose 12.8% in the current month
- UK Industrial Production down 0.7% for October
- Italian Industrial Production
- Swiss Unemployment Rate
- 12-7 Economic Calendar
- Euro firmer in recent trading
| EURGBP falls sharply. Breaks below the recent floor at the 0.8517 level Posted: 07 Dec 2011 07:04 AM PST
The break in the GBPUSD higher has been aided by a sharp move lower in the EURGBP. The pair is currently breaking/testing a floor area at 0.8517 level. The low has reached 0.8509 and has bounced back toward the floor level. The selling is being attributed to a large middle eastern seller. Since the pair has been one way and fast, there can be a tendency to bounce – especially if the large seller is done selling. However, because the damage is likely spread around multiple dealers, rallies will likely be sold. Looking at the 5 minute chart below, I would look for sellers to re-enter around the 0.8534 level This is the 38.2% of the last leg to the downside.
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| GBPUSD extends range higher on a break above the 100 hour MA. Will momentum continue? Posted: 07 Dec 2011 06:35 AM PST
The GBPUSD broke higher above the 100 hour MA (blue line) and raced higher. The pair moved above the 1.5664 level which has been a floor/ceiling over the last 4 or 5 trading days. The price is back below this level but remains above the 100 hour MA at the 1.5642 level. Traders who bought on the break will want to see the price move above and stay above the 1.5664 level. A move back below the 1.5642 level will not be encouraging. The current 76 pip trading range is still narrow for the pair for the day. There exists the potential for a range extension. Although the break is to the upside, this does not mean a reversal is not possible. Markets are volatile and choppy. Anything can happen. |
| GBPUSD stays between the “Goal Posts”. Range very narrow Posted: 07 Dec 2011 06:29 AM PST
The GBPUSD has been largely contained over the last few days by the 100 and 200 hour MAs. The pair tried to move below the 200 hour MA over the last 4 or 5 hours but that was rejected. So the pair extended up to the upper boundary agains the 100 hour MA. The range for the day is very narrow at around 54 pips. I would expect an extension outside the range at some point today and for a break of this stronghhold that the Goal Posts (as defined by the two moving averages) has hd on the pair. Be aware. Be prepared. |
| Posted: 07 Dec 2011 06:10 AM PST
The break to new lows for the day has been met with quick selling then quick buying as the trendline approached at the 1.3345 level. The price is back above the 1.3358-61 level but remains below the 1.3383 level where the 200 hour MA is found. The choppy action is not endearing to me. Risk is increased as buyers and sellers seem nervous. Look for sellers against the 1.3383 level. A move above the level would not be welcomed by the EURUSD bears. On the downside the 1.3358/61 level returns as a level to eye. A break has the same 1.3345, and then low for the week at 1.3335, to get through.
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| ECB considering loosening the collateral criteria for loans…EURUSD reacts voilently Posted: 07 Dec 2011 05:40 AM PST ….and also considering 2 year loans for banks. The action is in response to tighter credit conditions for banks. IF banks do not lend to each other, the banks can not fund the assets they hold. The ECB is saying, bring me your collateral and I will give you money that the banks are not willing to give you. Banks are being conservative/cautious/prudent in there lending given the uncertainty and risk. The ECB is considering filling that void. The EURUSD rallied on headline. The move took the price quickly above the 200 hour MA but has since retreated below (at the 1.3383 level). Staying below this level will still be key for the bears to remain in charge. A move back above and the bullish/bearish situation is more balanced once again for the pair. A move below the 1.3358-61 level opens the door for a potentially further downside probe with the 1.3345 adn the low for the week at the 1.3332 the next targets.
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| EURUSD in narrow range for the week Posted: 07 Dec 2011 05:34 AM PST The current trading range for the week at nearly the half way point is 153 pips with a high of 1.3485 and a low of 1.3332. The lowest trading range for a week this year was 155 pips during the April 10th week. Unless this ia a record setting week, I would expect the range to be extended. Of course with the EU summit taking place on Thursday and Friday, there exists the ammunition to move outside the range. However, do not underestimate the potential today. From a technical perspective, the price has moved below the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart below). This level comes in at the 1.3383 level. Staying below, keeps the bears in charge. Further on the downside, there has been a floor at the 1.3361 level over the last few days of trading. In the last hour, the price dipped below to a low of 1.3358. The intial move was rejected and the price rebounded. A second test will be eyed more closely. A break will target the trendline and then the low for the week. A move below the low opens the door for further selling pressure.
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| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.7.2011 Posted: 07 Dec 2011 05:20 AM PST
Market participants mostly remained on the sidelines as we await the scheduled ECB meeting along with a EU summit scheduled for tomorrow. News from the ECB that dollar demand via the swap auction was higher than expected, took a lot of the wind out of the EUR/USD pair. It seems that the banking sector is still struggling to meet it’s funding obligations. World equity markets are mostly higher-but Europe is showing signs of a small sell-off-and US Futures are higher at this point. Gold, Silver and most metals are lower-while oil is also slightly lower.
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK |
| The NY Morning Forex Commentary for December 7th 2011 Posted: 07 Dec 2011 05:04 AM PST |
| Posted: 07 Dec 2011 04:31 AM PST Stocks: DJ Futures:+42 Oil:-0.20
On tap for today:
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| US Mortgage Applications rose 12.8% in the current month Posted: 07 Dec 2011 04:21 AM PST The Purchase index rose 8.3% |
| UK Industrial Production down 0.7% for October Posted: 07 Dec 2011 01:32 AM PST A 0.3% decline was expected. Gbp/Usd is off abot 10 points to 1.5615 thus far. |
| Posted: 07 Dec 2011 01:07 AM PST Italian Ind. Production for October declined 0.9%, a 0.3% decline was expected. Eur/Usd has come off 10 points to 1.3430 on news. |
| Posted: 06 Dec 2011 11:03 PM PST Swiss Nov. Unemployment Rate came in at 3.0%, better than the 3.1% expected. Not much affect on CHF as Usd/Chf trades at .9242 and Eur/Chf at 1.2428. |
| Posted: 06 Dec 2011 08:57 PM PST
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| Posted: 06 Dec 2011 06:28 PM PST The EUR has gotten a boost in recent trading with with Nikkei currently trading up 70.0 and comments made recently from the BOJ’s Ishida that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe is affecting Japan. On an hourly bases it looks like the recent trend in the EUR/USD is upward with the pair currently testing yesterday’s high of 1.3428; the 100 hour moving average also comes in at this level. If resistance is found here we look back towards the 38.2% line as the target with the immediate bullish target being 1.34394.
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