Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- GBPUSD falls to new lows and next target support with little in the way of corrections along the way.
- The dollar is strongest against the GBP today.
- The dam is broken. EURUSD falls on stops. Next stop 1.2982/87
- GBPUSD falls sharply. Approaches 61.8% of the move up from the December low
- ECB lending to banks rose 214 billion to 879.1 billion in the week.
- NZDUSD testing last weeks highs at the 0.7773 area.
- The USDCAD is testing 100 day MA and trendline support at 1.0123 level
- The NY Morning Review and Preview for December 28th 2011
- Swiss KOF economic barometer 0.01 vs. 0.25 forecast and 0.34 prior reading.
- USD/JPY completes full hourly retracement
- 12-28 Economic Calendar
- usd/cnh continues to grind lower
- usd/hkd stuck in the middle of this downward channel.
- China Sets Yuan Reference Rate @ 6.3146
- Japan’s Industrial Production & Retail Sales
| Posted: 28 Dec 2011 07:31 AM PST
The beat goes on with the trend like move today in the GBPUSD. The selling is attributed to technical selling that is being turbo charged by illiquid market conditions. The pair is now at the next target support for the pair which comes against parellel channel trendline and lows from December 15th and December 19th. That support comes in at the 1.5462-80 area (see chart above). With the range for the day extending to 218 pips today, there should be some profit taking. However, trends are fast and directional and with the holiday liquidity at a low level, a move below the above mentioned support levels should not be ignored. The low from December comes in at 1.54068 and this would be the next downside target on a break of the support. On the topside now, the 1.5524 level is the upside resistance now (high after the sharp fall).
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| The dollar is strongest against the GBP today. Posted: 28 Dec 2011 07:05 AM PST
The USD is strongest against the GBP on a percentage change basis. The dollar has risen by nearly 1%. The dollar is stronger by 0.63% vs the EURUSD. |
| The dam is broken. EURUSD falls on stops. Next stop 1.2982/87 Posted: 28 Dec 2011 06:34 AM PST
The dam was broken and the price fell sharply. The EURUSD price is now below the low from December 21st at the 1.3016 level. This will now be resistance along with 1.3023/26 for the pair on the topside. On the downside, the 1.3982/87 level is the next target for the pair from a technical perspective. This level corresponds with the lows from December 15th and 19th. The lows for December come in at the 1.2945 level. The low for 2011? 1.2873. Is it possible? With illiquid markets anything is possible. On the topside look for the 1.3023/26 area to hold corrective resistance. If the level can hold, there exists a chance for new lows. If the level is broken, there may be some short covering in the pair.
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| GBPUSD falls sharply. Approaches 61.8% of the move up from the December low Posted: 28 Dec 2011 06:19 AM PST
The GBPUSD is finding out what illiquid holiday trading can do. The price fell below the 100 hour MA (Blue line in the chart above) and the price started to fall sharply. The pairs has since moved below trendline support and the 200 hour MA at the 1.5619/23 area (now resistance). The pair is now below the low for the week and is looking to approach the next key support at the 61.8% of the move up from the December low at the 1.5546 level.
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| ECB lending to banks rose 214 billion to 879.1 billion in the week. Posted: 28 Dec 2011 06:12 AM PST
The ECB balance sheet is at a record 2.73 trillion Euros. And who said, the ECB could not do QE? |
| NZDUSD testing last weeks highs at the 0.7773 area. Posted: 28 Dec 2011 06:07 AM PST
The best performing currency pair today against the USD is the NZD. The pair tested the 100 hour MA earlier today and failed on a break of the key level (see blue line in the hourly chart above). This gave traders a reason to buy and the pair has moved steadily higher since that time. Now the pair is consolidating near the high reached last week at the 0.7773 level. The price moved above this level on a few separate hourly bars today but each move higher has found profit taking sellers. The market will be eyeing this level on an hourly close basis to see if the buyers can develop momentum above the level. If not, look for sellers to push the pair back toward the 0.7750 level which is the 38.2% of the move up from yesterday’s low and also near the initial high for the day (lower yellow area is the support in the chart above). A move below the 0.7750 level will not be welcomed by the bulls today and should lead to further liquidation in the holiday trading today. |
| The USDCAD is testing 100 day MA and trendline support at 1.0123 level Posted: 28 Dec 2011 05:37 AM PST
The USDCAD is down testing the 100 day MA and trendline support at the key 1.0123 level. I would expect to see some profit taking buying interest at the level on the 1st test. A move below should solicit stops, however, with the next target being the low for the month of December at the 1.0050 level. Looking at the hourly chart below, a correction higher should find willing sellers at the 1.0154 area where trendline and the 38.2% of the days range comes in. The USDCAD has been one of the top movers today (only surpassed by the NZD). Higher oil prices are helping keep the currency supported (USDCAD down).
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| The NY Morning Review and Preview for December 28th 2011 Posted: 28 Dec 2011 05:02 AM PST |
| Swiss KOF economic barometer 0.01 vs. 0.25 forecast and 0.34 prior reading. Posted: 28 Dec 2011 03:54 AM PST |
| USD/JPY completes full hourly retracement Posted: 28 Dec 2011 02:23 AM PST Its been a pretty quiet night, with European equities up a touch. With the last hourly candle stick, the pair made a full hourly retracement of the move from the low on December 20th to the high of 78.217 on the 23rd.
From a daily perspective we are testing upward trend line support around 77.71, where we have seen some support over the last two weeks. Downward target is 77.34 with the topside target at 77.89 ( the 61.8% on the move from August 4th highs to the low on November 1st).
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| Posted: 27 Dec 2011 08:47 PM PST
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| usd/cnh continues to grind lower Posted: 27 Dec 2011 07:26 PM PST
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| usd/hkd stuck in the middle of this downward channel. Posted: 27 Dec 2011 07:23 PM PST
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| China Sets Yuan Reference Rate @ 6.3146 Posted: 27 Dec 2011 05:20 PM PST |
| Japan’s Industrial Production & Retail Sales Posted: 27 Dec 2011 03:58 PM PST Surprisingly a stronger Yen has not helped Retail Sales but has shown its affect in declining Industrial Production readings. The market continues to have no reaction to these negative releases.
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