Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EU Draft Fiscal compact being released now
• EURUSD making floors and ceilings today
• EFSF Reglings says progress made
• US Treasury official says EU debt crisis is serious riskto US outlook
• GBPUSD breaks above resistance but not with much momentum.
• EURUSD consolidates after surge higher. Market looks for the next move.
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.16.2011
• US CPI Falls
• NY Forex Review and Preview
• EURUSD breaks higher
• ECB’s Juncker on the Wires:
• US CPI Data Due at 8:30AM
• KOF Institute cuts Swiss 2012 GDP forecast to 0.2% from 1.5% previous estimate
• E/Z surplus at 0.3 billion euros for October
• RBI keeps repo rate at 8.5% & reverse repo rate at 7.5%

EU Draft Fiscal compact being released now Posted: 16 Dec 2011 07:08 AM PST Primary Budget deficit must not exceed 0.5% of  GDP over the economic cycle Countries could be taken to court of justice if they fail to meet targets Internal mkt should not be undermined by deeper Eurozone integration Meetings to take place twice a year Member states will be kept closely informed on preparation and outcome of Eurozone summit meeting New pact will enter into force after 9 countries have ratified it Only apply to countries once they have ratified it

EURUSD making floors and ceilings today Posted: 16 Dec 2011 07:04 AM PST The EURUSD is making floors and ceilings today.  On the downside the 1.30195 has tested the level three times. The last completed a 100% correction of the NY surge to the upside.   The  1. 30438 level was a ceiling in the Asian session today before breaking above in the Early NY session and surging higher. At the highs for the day the 1.3083 level tested the level on three separate occasions before the fall from the peak. With the up and down movements today, the market is open for anything, with a test of the 1.30438 level in the cards (this is the 1st level) as would be a test of the low for the day at 1.3002 level.

EFSF Reglings says progress made Posted: 16 Dec 2011 06:36 AM PST Says that staggering amounts been spent on the crisis.

US Treasury official says EU debt crisis is serious riskto US outlook Posted: 16 Dec 2011 06:35 AM PST No interest in providing additional funding to IMF IMF cant be a substitute for strong and credible EU debt firewall Debt crisis can hit US through trade and financial sector IMF role should be to give beleaguerd nations some breathing space

GBPUSD breaks above resistance but not with much momentum. Posted: 16 Dec 2011 06:18 AM PST The GBPUSD has spent the last 6 or so hours above the 100 hour MA (currently at hte 1.5523 level) and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the Decemeber 8th high (see chart above). This push higher should have led to a momentum move in the direction of the break, but the move has been somewhat muted.  The high has reached 1.5556 but the move higher has stalled from there.  It puts into question the will of the market to push higher. On the downside the market will be watching the 100 hour MA at the 1.5526 level.  A move below will not be encourging for the bulls.

EURUSD consolidates after surge higher. Market looks for the next move. Posted: 16 Dec 2011 05:45 AM PST The EURUSD pushed higher in early NY trade and moved above the 100 hour MA in the process (currently at the 1.3071 level). The price has a double top on the 5 minute chart above at the 1.3083 level. The correction off the high has remained above the 38.2% of the last leg higher. If the price can remain above the  38.2% retracement level it often is an indication of market support.  A move below the level will not be welcomed by the intraday traders. With the double top in place it does give cause for pause. The move above the 100 hour MA and lack of momentum on the break can also be a concern.  As a result, it might be a range trading opportunity.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.16.2011 Posted: 16 Dec 2011 05:42 AM PST Good Morning: We see the end of the week ending with a weaker greenback and JPY.  With the US economy slowly showing signs of improvement-investors demand for safer assets lessened. Following the downgrades by Moody’s and S&P-Fitch also downgraded Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup from the US.  European banks that were also downgraded were Barclays, Credi Suisse, Deutsche Bank and BNP.  The downgrades come after all three rating agencies completed their reviews of the financial sector. Rumors are swirling around the markets that S&P is considering a downgrade of Italy and Spain-while leaving France alone-at least for this round. World equity markets along with US Futures are all higher-as are commodity prices. I will be on holiday until Dec. 27-so I would like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas. HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

US CPI Falls Posted: 16 Dec 2011 05:30 AM PST Consumer Price Index(MoM):   Survey:  0.1%    Actual: 0.0%   Prior:  -0.1%   CPI Ex Food & Energy(MoM):    Survey: 0.1%    Actual: 0.2%   Prior: 0.1%    Consumer Price Index(YoY):    Survey: 3.5%    Actual: 3.4%   Prior: 3.5%   CPI Ex Food & Energy(YoY):    Survey: 2.1%   Actual: 2.2%   Prior: 2.1%   CPI Core Index SA:    Actual: 226.836  Prior: 226.444   Consumer Price Index NSA:    Survey: 226.221    Actual: 226.230    Prior: 226.421

NY Forex Review and Preview Posted: 16 Dec 2011 05:17 AM PST Stocks and Commodities DJI +71 S&P 9.7 Nasdaq +20. German Dax +0.17% France CAC 0.19% UK FTSE +0.64% China Shanghai Index +2.01% Nikkei Index 0.29% Gold +$21 Key events and releases pre NY EU Trade Balance 0.3B vs 1.3B expectations On tap for the NY Trading day: 8:30 AM Canada Foreign Securities Purchases 8.23b vs 7.35b last month 8:30 AM, US CPI, MoM 0.1% vs -0.1% last, Core 0.1% vs 0.1% last month 11:15 AM FOMC Evans Speaks 12:00 PM FOMC Fisher speaks Webinar today at 11:00 AM ET. The Forex Week in Review https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/271438664

EURUSD breaks higher Posted: 16 Dec 2011 04:49 AM PST The narrow trading range through the London morning session for the EURUSD gave way and the price has surged higher in early NY trade.  The range coming into NY was a scant 36 pips.  This would have represented the narrowest trading range for all of 2011. So the chance of an extension was pretty favorable. The pair has quickly moved to the 100 hour MA at the 1.3076 level.  A move above this level opens the door for further upside gains with the 1.3097level and the 1.3131 the next upside targets for the pair. The 1.3097 level was the afternoon high from December 13th. The 1.31315 is the 38.2% of the move down from the December 9th high.  On a break, traders would like to see the 1.3076 level hold support.

ECB’s Juncker on the Wires: Posted: 16 Dec 2011 04:27 AM PST Says: He ‘thinks’ EU will meet deadline for IMF loans Eurogroup may meet next week on crisis To decide today on possible Eurogroup meeting Hasn’t spoken with Weidmann on IMF loan package Taking with Luxembourg central bank on IMF loans ‘Too soon’ to discuss details of fiscal compact Expects EU to meet deadline on channeling loans to IMF

US CPI Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 16 Dec 2011 04:21 AM PST

KOF Institute cuts Swiss 2012 GDP forecast to 0.2% from 1.5% previous estimate Posted: 16 Dec 2011 02:42 AM PST Eur/Chf trades just off highs at 1.2242.

E/Z surplus at 0.3 billion euros for October Posted: 16 Dec 2011 02:06 AM PST E/Z Trade Balance came in at a 0.3 bln euro surplus, weaker than the 1.3 bln expected. Eur/Usd trades at 1.3030.

RBI keeps repo rate at 8.5% & reverse repo rate at 7.5% Posted: 15 Dec 2011 10:45 PM PST * RBI says further rate hikes may not be warranted * further monetary policy likely to reverse cycle Usd/Inr made new session high of 52.97 after policy announcement

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