Thursday, December 22, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Michigan Confidence Improves to 69.9% from 68.0% Survey, Leading Indicators Also Improve

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 07:01 AM PST

Leading Indicators:  Survey:  0.3%   Actual: 0.5%   Prior: 0.9%  

House Price Index(MoM):  Survey:  0.2%   Actual: -0.2%   Prior:  0.9%   Revised: 0.4%

GDP weaker for 3Q, Intial Claims still improving. Chicago Fed worse

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 05:33 AM PST

  • The GDP is old news. If anything it will make 4Q better.Consumption came in at 1.7% vs 2.3% expectations.  Investment was better at 1.3 vs -0.9% in the prior release, Government was unchanges at -0.1%, while Exports rose by 4.7% vs 4.3% and Imports also increased from the prior reading rising to 1.2% from 0.5%
  • Initial Claims lowest since April 19th 2008. This is becoming a trend with the last three weeks at 385K, 368K and 364K.  It is the holiday season and activity is better in the stores. This may be keeping the demand for workers at a higher level. The question will be if the momentum continues into 2012
  • The Chicago National Activity Index was at the lowest level since August 2011.  A reading below 0 implies below trend growth in the national economy.

The dollar has moved higher off the news on the first reaction.

Jobless Claims Drop Under Prior of 366, GDP Falls

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 05:32 AM PST

Chicago Fed Natl Activity:  Survey: -0.17   Actual: -0.37  Prior: -0.13  Revised: -0.11

(Annualized):   Survey: 2.0%   Actual: 1.8%   Prior: 2.0%  

Personal Consumption:   Survey: 2.3%   Actual: 1.7%   Prior: 2.3%  

GDP Price Index:   Survey: 2.5%   Actual: 2.6%   Prior: 2.5%  

Core PCE QoQ:   Survey: 2.0%   Actual: 2.1%   Prior: 2.0%

Jobless Claims:  Survey:  380K    Actual: 364K   Prior: 366K    Revised:  368K   

Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3600K    Actual:  3546K    Prior: 3603K  Revised: 3625K

The FXDD NY Review and Preview

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 05:09 AM PST

Stocks and Commodities

Key events and releases pre NY

  • New Zealand GDP rose by a greater than expected 0.8% vs 0.6% expectations
  • UK GDP QoQ rose by 0.6% vs 0.5% expectations, YoY came in as expected at 0.5%

Key Events and Releases in NY Session

  • 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index is expected to fall by -0.17% vs -0.13% last
  • 8:30 AM ET, GDP QoQ (Annualized) 2.0% vs 2.0% last, Personal Consumption+2.3% vs 2.3% last, Core PCE QoQ 2% vs 2.0% last Month
  • 8:30 AM ET, Initial Claims 380k vs 366K last, Continuing Claims 3600K vs 3603K last month
  • 10 AM ET, Univ of Michigan Confidence, Estimate 68.0 vs 67.7 last Month
  • 10 AM ET, Leading Indicators, +0.3% vs +0.9% last month
  • 11:00 AM ET,ECB Draghi speaks

FXDD Scheduled Webinar’s for today 

9:30 AM ET, Charting the Majors with James Chen
TO REGISTER: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/390398624

4 PM ET:
The Traders Course with Shawn Powell
TO REGISTER: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/892502329

US GDP, Jobless Claims, Chicago Fed Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 04:14 AM PST

 

 

Euro back where we started….

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 03:19 AM PST

Since the last post the pair found resistance at 1.31161 and is back trading around 1.3050. We’ve seen heavy selling in the last hour, USD gaining strength, with the low being 1.3033; support is been shown at this level recently.

UK Q3 GDP rises 0.6%, more than previously estimated.

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 01:30 AM PST

Current account was -15.2B vs. -6.1B expected, and total business investment was 0.3%; better than expected.

Merkel advisor says the furture of the EUR will be decided in the next 6 months, the joint currency has no future unless Germany changes its stand.

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 01:12 AM PST

Italian retail sales (Oct) 0.1% vs. -0.2% expected (-0.3% prior).

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 01:02 AM PST

GBP/USD testing resistance @ 1.57246.

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 12:41 AM PST

With the taste of risk in the market in recent trading the GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.57246; a support level from earlier in the month. If momentum continues we should see trading towards 1.57722.

European equities open higher, risk-on.

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 12:26 AM PST

The USD is at session lows against all of the majors after European equities opened firmer: Euro stoxx +1.20%, FTSE + .60%, CAC +1.23%, DAX +1.21%.

The EUR/USD made a move higher following the open of these markets with the high testing the 38.2% fibo line on the move from December 19th lows to yesterday’s high. The next bullish target is the 0.0% line; 1.30919 if resistance is found here. Also note that our upward trend line, which began on December 14th, is still showing the pair support.

 

 

Japan to earmark 1 trillion JPY to boost growth in industries.

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 12:07 AM PST

Japanese Eco Minister Azumi on the wires….

Posted: 22 Dec 2011 12:02 AM PST

  • Government will make utmost effort with BOJ to get the economy out of deflation.
  • If unexpected events occur, government will take flexible stance on policy.
  • Cabinet plans to approve next year’s budget on December 24.

German fin. minister says upbeat consumers to provide basis for economic growth.

Posted: 21 Dec 2011 11:03 PM PST

  • November tax revenue rises 7.6%.
  • Slower growth to be temporary.

Japan sees real GDP +2.2% in 2012-2013.

Posted: 21 Dec 2011 10:39 PM PST
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