Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

EURUSD continues trend lower but bounces off support

Posted: 04 Jan 2012 07:56 AM PST

Dollar moves higher. EURUSD pressured toward yesterday’s lows

Posted: 04 Jan 2012 07:36 AM PST

Factory Order 1.8% vs 2% expectations

Posted: 04 Jan 2012 07:04 AM PST

The EURUSD has moved a touch lower after the report. The price remains below the 100 hour MA and 50% retracement of the move up from the December 29th low. That level comes in at the 1.2966 area.  Stay below and the bias remains down for the pair. The low from yesterday came in at the 1.2917 level.  The low for today at 1.2931 and this level are the next targets for the pair.

US Factory Orders Comes out at 1.8% vs Projected of 2.0%, Higher Than Prior of 0.4%.

Posted: 04 Jan 2012 07:01 AM PST

NZDUSD bangs against 100 day MA.

Posted: 04 Jan 2012 06:22 AM PST

The NZDUSD has tested the 100 day MA over the last few days of trading. The level comes in at the 0.7902 level.  The high today came in at the 0.7903.   Staying below the level, should keep the possibility of further corrective pressure on the pair. The price has moved from a low of 0.7651 to the high yesterday of 0.7906 over the last week of trading. Running into the 100 day MA is an obvious level to take some profit by the longs (and for bears to enter).

However, the decline from the top has not been all that robust. The low to high trading range today is only about 50 pips. This is half the average trading range over the last 20 days of 100 pips (see NZDUSD in the chart below).

Moreover, the chart formation on the hourly looks more like a bull flag, then a market intent on falling.  In the last few hours the price dipped below the bottom trendline, but that move failed.  Traders may look at that move as an indication of continued demand for the pair. A break of the 0.7896 topside trendline is needed to confirm the bullish bias followed by the break of the 100 day MA not far from there at the 0.7903 level.

GBPUSD finds buyers against the 200 hour MA

Posted: 04 Jan 2012 05:57 AM PST

The GBPUSD sold off in sympathy with the EURUSD today. The economic news out of the UK today was quite bullish as the UK PMI Construction came out much better at 53.2 vs 51.5 last, Mortgage Approvals rose to 52.9K vs expectations of 52.5K and Consumer Credit was higher than expectations.  Despite the data, the price of the GBPUSD fell.

The fall did find support, however, against the 200 hour MA which comes in currently at the 1.5571 level (low reached 1.55778). The price is now back above the 38.2% at teh 1.5590. I will look for support against this level on dips now.  Holding would be positive for the pair. A move below and my bullish thoughts will be tarnished.  A test of the 200 hour MA can be expected. A fall through the 200 hour MA would likely lead to further selling pressure.

 

EURUSD falls below 100 hour MA and 50% retracement

Posted: 04 Jan 2012 05:29 AM PST

The EURUSD is continuing the trend to the downside, falling below the 100 hour MA and the 50% retracement of the move up from the December 29th low to the high reached on January 3rd. That level came in at 1.2966.  THis will now be used as topside resistance by intraday traders.

On the daily chart, the price tried move above the top trendline in the early London session, but fell quickly from the level.  The subsequent selloff has pushed the price back comfortably in the channel. The Jan 2011 low at 1.2873 followed by the end of December 2011 low at 1.2857 are the first downside targets. The bottom channel trendline (not shown) comes in at the 1.2598 area.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-January.4.2012

Posted: 04 Jan 2012 05:28 AM PST

Good Morning:

A report showing that inflation slowed in Europe has prompted investors to push the ECB to reduce interest rates-as a means to get the stalled European economy back on track.
The single currency dropped to the lowest level in 11 years against the JPY.  Germany sold 10 year bonds 4.06 billion worth at an average yield of 1.93%.

Asian equity markets were higher-but European equity markets dropped as the marketplace realizes that the banks will need additional capital to boost their balance sheets in the wake of the debt crisis that is strangling Europe.

It seems that the ECB is out in the market buying Italian and Spanish bonds-no surprises there.

Oil trading over $102/bar, gold and silver are slightly lower at this time.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Dollar rebounds in European trading. EURUSD tests key intraday support though

Posted: 04 Jan 2012 04:57 AM PST

US Factory Orders Data Due at 10AM

Posted: 04 Jan 2012 04:20 AM PST

Italian prelim CPI (m/m) 0.4%; better than expected.

Posted: 04 Jan 2012 02:02 AM PST

Euro-area December inflation rate falls to 2.8%; median estimate was 2.8%.

Posted: 04 Jan 2012 02:00 AM PST

EUR/USD support at 1.3024

Posted: 04 Jan 2012 01:57 AM PST

The pair has been trading in a 50 point range for the last day; currently trading in the middle of the range. We saw some firmer trading earlier after a slightly better than expected Euro zone final services PMI, but has since re-tested the low. European equities are slightly lower, and DOW futures are flat and we have Euro area flash CPI estimate coming up at 5 am.

EU’s Junker says that Europe is on the brink of a recession.

Posted: 04 Jan 2012 01:39 AM PST

  • Europe must react adequately to economic slowdown.
  • Greek situation is “difficult”, solution is “feasible”.
  • “Return to the Drachma isn’t an option”.
  • Greece isn’t contemplating a return to its former currency.
  • Greek bondholder talks to wrap up “soon”.

 

UK Mortgage approvals 52.9K; better than expected.

Posted: 04 Jan 2012 01:33 AM PST

UK construction PMI was also better at 53.2 and net consumer credit was 0.4 bln vs. 0.2 bln expected. The market was relatively unaffected by the release.

 
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