Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

IMF Comments to the G-20

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 07:04 AM PST

  • G20 countries can help EU expand size of bailout, and advanced countries’ monetary policy should remain accomodative
  • ECB should expand the balance sheet for banks and debt crisis
  • CNY is appreciating faster than previously, and China needs to continue to allow the CNY to appreciate
  • G20 markets assign low likelihood of Iran-related oil supply disruption, and Iran oil export disruption would push prices up USD 23-30 per BBL.

House Price Index Rises to 1.0%, Pending Home Sales Fall Almost 10%

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 07:01 AM PST

House Price Index(MoM):  Survey:  0.0%   Actual:  1.0%   Prior:  -0.2%  

Pending Home Sales (MoM):    Survey:  -1.0%    Actual:  -3.5%    Prior:   7.3%    

Dec vs. Nov 2011
Seasonally Adjusted(MoM%)
U.S:  -3.5% vs   7.3%
Northeast:  -3.1% vs  8.1%
Midwest:  4.4% vs  3.3%
South:  -2.6% vs 4.3%
West:  -11.0% vs  14.9%

Level Change
U.S:  -3.5 vs 6.8
Northeast:  -2.4 vs 5.8
Midwest: 3.7 vs 2.9 
South:  -2.7 vs 4.3 
West: -13.3 vs 15.7 

Pending Home Sales (YoY):   Actual:  4.4%     Prior:  6.9%

EURUSD eyes resistance at 100 hour MA

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 06:09 AM PST

The EURUSD has resistance at the 1.2968 level (100 hour MA in the chart above – blue line).  Move above and some of the bearishness of the day, starts to fade.  Key level this morning.

USDJPY holds above corrective support (77.92-99) area. Back in channel

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 05:57 AM PST

The USDJPY corrected off the high in early NY trading but held above the days 38.2% -50% retracement area. In a currency pair like the USDJPY, if the price does not rally, it sells off.  So far the price advances are holding.

The key resistance above today is against the high from November at the 78.28 level and then then 200 day MA at 78.33.  Moving above these levels should solicit stop buying and additional upward momentum.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-January.25.2012

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 05:35 AM PST

Good Morning:

Another choppy night of trading as Euro and GBP led the parade.
With better than expected German IFO data-the EUR/USD pair rose to the mid 1.30 range before falling back into the mid 1.29 range.
GBP did worse-as lower than expected Q4 GDP surprised the markets.  With manufacturers cutting production, and the service sector stagnant-is the UK looking at a double-dip recession?  The BOE will be assessing it’s QE program to see if additional stimulus will not only be needed-but will it do anything in reality-only time will tell.
Greece is still negotiating with private bond holders to work out new interest rates for a bond swap.  The prospects are not looking rosy.

Apple Inc blew out Q4 earnings-expected earnings $10.16/share-real earnings $13.87/share.  Apple is now the largest company in the world.  They have jumped over Exxon/Mobil to take the #1 spot.

Last night President Obama gave his “State of the Union” speech.  He called for higher taxes on the rich, and more government spending (I have no idea where this money will come from) for job creation.  It was a very political and partisan speech-pitting Democrats and Republicans against each other.  In my opinion-the fighting between parties has added to the problems in Washington.   

 This afternoon we have the statement from the FOMC-and a news conference By Chairman Bernanke.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US House Price Index & Pending Home Sales Data Due at 10AM

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 05:32 AM PST

Dollar higher. Test intraday levels however. Bernanke awaited

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 05:22 AM PST

Angela Merkel casts doubt on Greece

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 04:58 AM PST

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/25/angela-merkel-greece-financial-meltdown

In an article in the UK’s The Guardian, Germany’s Angela Merkel casts doubt on saving Greece from a financial meltdown.

Dollar advances today. USDJPY continues surge. EURUSD falls below trendline. Bernanke and Fed awaited

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 04:09 AM PST

US Mortgage Applications Fall to -5.0% Frior Prior of 23.1%

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 04:00 AM PST

ECB said to be opposed to taking losses on it’s Greek debt holdings

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 02:51 AM PST

The ECB has been buying up Greek debt as a way to provide liquidity to the banks and save the EU for collapse.  There was a story in the press over the last 24 hours saying the ECB should take the hit and take a haircut on their bond holding too (along with the Private Sector bond holders).  This comment says “no”. They feel they have already been part of the solution to Greece through their purchases. To now take a haircut  would be a bad precedent to make to the market and to EU members.

UK GDP fell 0.2% in Q4, 0.1% decline expected

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 01:34 AM PST

BoE bond-purchase vote 9-0, interest rate vote 9-0 to keep at 275 bln and 0.5% respectively.

Some MPC memberssaid further asset purchases likely.

Gbp/Usd a touch firmer, presently trading at 1.5655.

German Jan. IFO Business Confidence Index rises to 108.3 from prior 107.2

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 01:03 AM PST

Eur/Usd made new high of 1.3050 on news.

1-25 Economic Calendar

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 08:53 PM PST

Possible USD/HKD resistance around 7.7608

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 07:08 PM PST

The pair been trading between 7.7594 and 7.7600 for the last two days, currently testing downward trend line resistance which has been developing since last Friday. Currently there is added resistance at 7.7608 by the 100 hour moving average and the 38.2% line. If there is a close above this level we look to 7.76135 as the next topside target. Failure to close higher should see continued trading in this range.
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