Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• French TV saying S&P downgrades France. No word on by how much
• EURUSD makes new week lows falling below the 1.2661/65 area
• US Consumer Sentiment Reaches 74.0, Strongest Number Since May
• Michigan Consumer Confidence comes in stronger at 74.0
• EU Sources that France is included in the downgrade from S&P
• EURUSD moves sharply lower on downgrade rumors
• Market Chatter: Rumors That France, Spain, Italy, Belgium and Portugal Will Be Euro Countries to be Downgraded
• USDJPY breaks above trendline/100/200 hour MA. and stops at 50%
• Dollar moves higher against all currencies as rating agency imminent cuts lead to flight into greenback
• “Senior European source” says Germany is not one of the countries who face imminent downgrade. Market chatter.
• Sources say several countries could be face imminent downgrade by S&P
• EURUSD breaks lower. Falls below 100 hour MA.
• Bobbys Corner-Open market-January.13.2012
• EURUSD finds support against the 100 hour MA and week midpoint
• US Import Price Index Unchanged as Trade Balance Widens, Canada Trade Balance Improves

French TV saying S&P downgrades France. No word on by how much Posted: 13 Jan 2012 07:22 AM PST They cite a government source. S&P has not downgraded officially yet but certainly the market is trading like it

EURUSD makes new week lows falling below the 1.2661/65 area Posted: 13 Jan 2012 07:09 AM PST 1.2635 is the next trendline support off the daily chart. Below that level is the 1.2594 which is the 150.00% of the move up from the October 4th low to the end of October high.  Below that the 1.2464 level is the 161.8 extension level.

US Consumer Sentiment Reaches 74.0, Strongest Number Since May Posted: 13 Jan 2012 06:56 AM PST

Michigan Consumer Confidence comes in stronger at 74.0 Posted: 13 Jan 2012 06:55 AM PST Current Conditions 82.6 vs 79.6 last month Expectations 68.4 vs 63.6 last month The headline reading is the highest level since May 2011 when the index came in at 74.3. The dollar has gotten stonger against the Euro since the release and trades at new lows for the pair.The low for the week came in at 1.2661 on Wednesday. This took out the low in the first few hours on the Sunday opening. The range for the EURUSD of 207 pips today (the high was today) gives the market cause for a potential pause. Traders may use the “double bottom” (not officially but close enough for me) as a level to buy against. But note, that traders should not fade a break of the weeks low. The range is narrow for the week. An extension is still possible.

EU Sources that France is included in the downgrade from S&P Posted: 13 Jan 2012 06:55 AM PST The talk in the market seems to be a controlled leak in order to let the market trade the news before London goes home for the weekend. The announcements from the credit agencies have come typically in the afternoon. The US downgrade came after the stock market closed on a Friday if I recall correctly. Perhaps the rating agencies are realizing the implications of such a strategy. The news is out and the EURUSD has seemed to have stabilized.

EURUSD moves sharply lower on downgrade rumors Posted: 13 Jan 2012 06:42 AM PST

Market Chatter: Rumors That France, Spain, Italy, Belgium and Portugal Will Be Euro Countries to be Downgraded Posted: 13 Jan 2012 06:34 AM PST

USDJPY breaks above trendline/100/200 hour MA. and stops at 50% Posted: 13 Jan 2012 06:19 AM PST Well the USDJPY broke on the greenback buying, moving above the 100 and 200 hour MA, trendline adn 38.2% of the new years range. but stopped at the 50%. Now support at 76.91 and the 100 and 200 hour MA at 76.85.  Can the USDJPY move?

Dollar moves higher against all currencies as rating agency imminent cuts lead to flight into greenback Posted: 13 Jan 2012 06:14 AM PST

“Senior European source” says Germany is not one of the countries who face imminent downgrade. Market chatter. Posted: 13 Jan 2012 06:11 AM PST

Sources say several countries could be face imminent downgrade by S&P Posted: 13 Jan 2012 05:59 AM PST It is Friday. There has been announcements made in the past in the NY afternoon session. The market will now be looking for these downgrades later today.  S&P refuses to comment on the rumors.  The EURUSD has continued the fall nevertheless. France is considered one of the countries who’s AAA rating is under pressure. Below is the credit ratings of major countries at the end of the 2011. Below is the scale of ratings used by the major credit rating agencies

EURUSD breaks lower. Falls below 100 hour MA. Posted: 13 Jan 2012 05:49 AM PST Not seeing any news for the quick reversal. The 1.2764-69 is now resistance for the pair.  Equals the 100 hour MA and the 50% midpoint of the weeks range.

Bobbys Corner-Open market-January.13.2012 Posted: 13 Jan 2012 05:40 AM PST Good Morning: The Euro dropped after disappointing demand for the 3 year Italian Bond. Next week, Italy auctions off 10 year bonds-and the markets are hoping that there is enough interest in the bond sale. The only bright side of the Italian auctions is that the yields have remained within acceptable levels.  In North American news-the US Trade Deficit jumped up to $47.8 Bil in November from an expected $45 Bil. Often, economists contend that a wider US deficit shows improved US demand, though the data shows a significant slump in exports to Europe.    Asian equity markets were higher-Europe is mixed-and US Futures are lower at this time. Gold is lower-but Oil is a bit higher. HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD finds support against the 100 hour MA and week midpoint Posted: 13 Jan 2012 05:37 AM PST The EURUSD has found support today against the 100 hour MA (blue line) and the 50% of the weeks range. The high to low trading range for the week is a relatively small 216 pips. This rivals the low ranges in December of 205, 214 and 225.  You have to go back to August 2011 to have a more narrow week.  Perhaps there are more fireworks in store for us next week in the pair. With support holding against key support, traders will be focusing on the retracement. If the price decline in the London morning is going to continue, staying below the 1.2794-1.2803 will be eyed as resistance.

US Import Price Index Unchanged as Trade Balance Widens, Canada Trade Balance Improves Posted: 13 Jan 2012 05:32 AM PST US Import Price Index(MoM):  Survey: -0.1%    Actual: -0.1%    Prior:  0.7%    Revsied: 0.8%   Import Price Index(YoY):  Survey: 8.4%    Actual: 8.5%    Prior:  9.9%    Revsied: 10.1%   Trade Balance:  Survey: -45.0B   Actual: -47.8B   Prior: -43.5B   Revised: -43.3B Canada Trade Balance:  Survey: -0.5B   Actual: -1.07B   Prior: -0.89B   Revised: -0.49B

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