Forex Market Updates & Commentary

House Market Index Data Increases to 25, Best Level in Four and Half Years
EURCHF moves sharply higher but comes off
IMF aiming ot raise 500 billion
GBPUSD between the 100 and 200 hour MA. Still looking for the break.
Industral Production Slides, Capacity Utilization Goes Up, Highest Since June 2008
Moody’s report Spain, Portugal, Italy and Spain to be in recession in 2012
US TIC Flows Rise to $59.8B vs $40.0B Survey and Prior of $4.8B
EURUSD takes out high by a pip and falls from there
GBPUSD moves above 200 hour MA but lots of resistance above
PPI lower than expected on headline but Core higher
December PPI Falls to -0.1%, Core PPI Rises 0.3%
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-January.18.2012
EURUSD moves toward key trendline resistance
Greek official says all options are being explored w/out debt swap talk
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Rate due at 9:15am

House Market Index Data Increases to 25, Best Level in Four and Half Years

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 07:00 AM PST

EURCHF moves sharply higher but comes off

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 06:42 AM PST

The talk is that it may have been a bad rate entered at 1.2150 in the interbank that forced the market sharply higher. . This caused the spike and got the markets attention. The price is back down testing the 1.2100 level as the details come out.

IMF aiming ot raise 500 billion

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 06:38 AM PST

It is aiming to raise 500 billion
They see global potential financing needs of around 1 trillion

GBPUSD between the 100 and 200 hour MA. Still looking for the break.

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 06:34 AM PST

Industral Production Slides, Capacity Utilization Goes Up, Highest Since June 2008

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 06:15 AM PST

Industrial Production Price Index (MoM): Survey: 0.5% Actual: 0.4% Prior: -0.2% Revised: -0.3%

Capacity Utilization: Survey: 78.1% Actual: 78.1% Prior: 77.8%

Moody’s report Spain, Portugal, Italy and Spain to be in recession in 2012

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 06:09 AM PST

US TIC Flows Rise to $59.8B vs $40.0B Survey and Prior of $4.8B

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 06:01 AM PST

EURUSD takes out high by a pip and falls from there

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 05:55 AM PST

It is never good to have a skittish market, take out an extreme by a pip or two and fail. That is what happened with the EURUSD and the price moved from 1.2845 to 1.2803 in around 15-20 minutes. Support comes in at 1.2801 which is the 38.2% of the move up today but in skittish markets – anything can happen. So be aware of the risk from volatility and less liquid markets.

GBPUSD moves above 200 hour MA but lots of resistance above

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 05:37 AM PST

The GBPUSD has moved above the 200 hour MA at the 1.5381 level but has run into a lot of resistance at the 1.5398-1.5407 levels. There has been a number of lows/highs at the area over the last few weeks of trading and is also where the 38.2% of the move down from the January 4th high comes in. The first test was quickly rejected with the price moving back toward the 200 hour MA level. The market has a choice to make now. Move lower off the level and break below the 200 hour MA or gather itself for a run up and through (or just stall). Key moment for the pair.

PPI lower than expected on headline but Core higher

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 05:34 AM PST

The YoY headline PPI came in much lower at 4.8% VS 5.7% last month, but the Core YoY rose to 3% from 2.9%.

PPI has been running higher than the CPI which comes out later this week. The difference presumingly comes out of profits and/or from more efficiency. Some suggest that CPI is understated. In any case the market has continued the trend established in the European session with the EURUSD moving toward the highs.

December PPI Falls to -0.1%, Core PPI Rises 0.3%

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 05:32 AM PST

Producer Price Index (MoM): Survey: 0.1% Actual: -0.1% Prior: 0.3%

PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM): Survey: 0.1% Actual: 0.3% Prior: 0.1%

Producer Price Index (YoY): Survey: 5.1% Actual: 4.8% Prior: 5.7%

PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY): Survey: 2.8% Actual: 3.0% Prior: 2.9%

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-January.18.2012

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 05:23 AM PST

Good Morning:

The FX markets on a wild ride in overnight trading-as the Euro rose during the Asian session-as rumors of a possible deal with Greece led the single currency higher-only to be sold off after Fitch threatened to downgrade Italy by 2 notches. Then the euro picked up again after reports that the IMF may increase their their lending facilities.

The World Bank has slashed it’s global growth forecast. The recession and continued credit crisis in Europe threatens not only the euro region, but will hurt both the emerging markets (India-Mexico), and major markets also.

Oil and Silver are all higher at this time, Gold is flat.

Asian equity markets were higher-Europe is mixed-and US Futures are higher at this time.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD moves toward key trendline resistance

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 05:22 AM PST

The low for 2011 in the EURUSD came in at the 1.2857. The trendline off the December high comes in at 1.2866. The market is moving toward the level as comments from Greece and such keep the shorts on edge. A move toward the level, however, should solicit selling /profit taking on the first test. On a break, however, there should be some stops triggered. Given the substantial trend lower since October, there is room to roam above if the shorts get scared and cover. So far, so good. The bears remain in charge. However, be aware and be prepared.

Greek official says all options are being explored w/out debt swap talk

Posted: 18 Jan 2012 05:17 AM PST