Forex Market Updates & Commentary

The Report on the Employment issues by the BLS
GBPUSD moves toward trendline (and other) support at 1.5360-85 area.
USDJPY falls after failing to advance above resistance area
The EURUSD remains below resistance but range is still limited
Gold tests resistance at 38.2% and finds respectful seller on the 1st test
Feds Dudley on the Wires
EURUSD falls further on the back of the strong NFP report
US Nonfarm, Unemployment, Manufacturing Payrolls All on the Uprise
US Unemployment better than expected. Revisions down 20K
EURUSD in narrow range. Room to roam
Fitch downgrades Hungary to BB+
Fitch Downgrades Hungary To BB+, With Negative Outlook
US Unemployment report awaited. Key information and levels for major pair.
US Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings Data Due at 8:30AM
Canada Unemployment comes in a little weaker than expected

The Report on the Employment issues by the BLS

Posted: 06 Jan 2012 07:35 AM PST

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

For those who may be interested…..

GBPUSD moves toward trendline (and other) support at 1.5360-85 area.

Posted: 06 Jan 2012 07:05 AM PST

The GBPUSD has been in a range since mid November. The high has been at 1.5781. The low at 1.5360. Along the bottom there is a trendline that discounting the failed break at the end of December, comes in at 1.5385. The price is testing this level now and should provide some support for the pair.

A break will of course target the failed break low at the 1.5360 level. A break of that should open the door for additional selling momentum with the next longer term target being the 2011 low at the 1.5270 level.

Looking at something shorter, the 5 minute chart has a channel low targeting the 1.5378 area today.

Putting all the pieces together, there is support at 1.5360, 1.5378 and 1.5385. I would expect some profit taking against this area on dips with stops on a break of the 1.5360 level.

USDJPY falls after failing to advance above resistance area

Posted: 06 Jan 2012 06:33 AM PST

The USDJPY moved up and through the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) but could not breach the 50% of the move down from the December 28th high to the low. Sellers came in and now the market is down toward the days low at the 77.00 level. I would expect buyers against the low with a move above the 77.15 level being a good development for the pair today.

The EURUSD remains below resistance but range is still limited

Posted: 06 Jan 2012 06:27 AM PST

Gold tests resistance at 38.2% and finds respectful seller on the 1st test

Posted: 06 Jan 2012 06:14 AM PST

Gold is moving toward resistance at the 1629.54 level. This is the 38.2% of the move down from the Novmber high. Not far from that level is the 200 day MA at the 1633 level.

The price high today came in at 1628.70 and found the as expected sellers on the first test. The range for the day is still narrow and an extension can be anticipated. Traders will like to see the low hold support (1616 level). A move below will not be welcomed for the short term at least.

Feds Dudley on the Wires

Posted: 06 Jan 2012 06:02 AM PST

Says;

Housing programs would make fed policy ‘more effective’
Weak housing market impedes vigorous economic recovery
Calls for ‘additional housing policy interventions’
‘Outlook for inflation is moderate’
Monetary policy, housing policy are ‘complements’
Outlook for unemployment was ‘unacceptably high’
‘Appropriate’ to consider more monetary easing

EURUSD falls further on the back of the strong NFP report

Posted: 06 Jan 2012 05:42 AM PST

The EURUSD has fallen on the back of the stronger NFP report and approaches the 1.2722 level next target at the 1.2722 level. Traders will be watching the the 1.2748 level above. This was the 150% of the Dec 29 to Jan 3rd move. Staying below this close level will keep the bears in control. A move above will target the 1.27585 level which is the 38.2% of the days range. The bears remain in control. The buyers have to prove they can move the price higher.

US Nonfarm, Unemployment, Manufacturing Payrolls All on the Uprise

Posted: 06 Jan 2012 05:31 AM PST

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: Survey: 155K Actual: 200K Prior: 120K Revision: 100K

Change in Private Payrolls: Survey: 178K Actual: 212K Prior: 140K Revised: 120K

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: Survey: 6K Actual: 23K Prior: 2K Revised: 1K

Unemployment Rate: Survey: 8.7% Actual: 8.5 % Prior: 8.6%

Avg Hourly Earning (MoM) All Emp: Survey: 0.2% Actual: 0.2% Prior: 0.1%

Avg Hourly Earning (YoY) All Emp: Survey: 2.1% Actual: 2.1% Prior: 1.8%

Avg Weekly Hours All Employees: Survey: 34.3 Actual: 34.4 Prior: 34.3

US Unemployment better than expected. Revisions down 20K

Posted: 06 Jan 2012 05:31 AM PST

NFP 200
Private 212K
Unemployment 8.5%
Manufacturing 23K
Revisions were revised 20K lower for both the NFP and the Private Payrolls

The Underemployment rate fell to 15.2% this is the lowest since February 2009. Overall a better number on first look.

EURUSD in narrow range. Room to roam

Posted: 06 Jan 2012 05:23 AM PST

With the high to low range narrow, there is room to roam in the EURUSD today. The l.2773 level is the 138.2% of the move ups from the December 29th low to the January 3rd high. This level stopped the decline yesterday and will be a focus level today. Below that level, the next targets are 1.2748, 1.2722 and below that a look toward 1.2682 is my next target level. On the daily chart below the bottom channel trendline comes in at 1.2570. On the topside, the 1.2831 level will be the first target, followed by the 1.2857 level. The 1.2904 level will be the next target followed by the 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue and green lines in the chart above).