Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD falls below the 100 hour MA at the 1.3416 level and stops triggered
• Bernanke’s Testimony to the House Financial Services Committee
• Chicago Purcasing Manager Stronger 64.0 vs Survey of 61.0 and Prior of 60.2
• GBPUSD breaks above topside trendline resistance
• A technical look at the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF
• German official sees no risk that IMF not participate in bailout
• Better GDP. Consumption better
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.29.2012
• GDP and Personal Consumption Both Higher
• US GDP & Personal Consumption Data Due at 8:30AM
• ECB Lending higher than expectations. US GDP, Bernanke and Feds Beige Book awaited.
• MBA Mortgage Applications Released -0.3% vs Prior of -4.5%
• ECB lend banks 529.5 bln EUR for 3 years; more than the 470 bln estimate.
• Eurozone CPI (y/y) 2.6%; worse than the 2.7% forecast.
• BOE’s Bean

EURUSD falls below the 100 hour MA at the 1.3416 level and stops triggered Posted: 29 Feb 2012 07:09 AM PST The less than positive comments from Bernanke has pushed the price lower in the EURUSD on risk off. The price also fell below the 100 hour MA at the 1.3415 level and stops were triggered. The price scooted down to 1.3387 which was a tick below the low from yesterday. Traders will want to see the correction hold below the 1.3415 level in order to judge the commitment of the sellers. Look for sellers against this level with further stops below the 1.3387 level.

Bernanke’s Testimony to the House Financial Services Committee Posted: 29 Feb 2012 07:04 AM PST Bernanke’s Testimony to the House Us Expansion uneven and modest GDP in 2012 likely to grow at pace of 2nd half 2011 Fed accounts for magnitudes of deviation from goal Positive developments in the labor market Inflation and Employment mandates complementary Fall in unemployment more rapid than expected Gas prices will temporarily push up inflation Job market remains far from normal Fed follows balanced approach on dual mandate Long term expectations suggest subdued inflation Especially important to evaluate economic data Unemployment elevated and price outlook subdued Critical challenges remain for eurozone

Chicago Purcasing Manager Stronger 64.0 vs Survey of 61.0 and Prior of 60.2 Posted: 29 Feb 2012 06:46 AM PST Chicago Purcasing Manager Stronger 64.0 vs Survey of 61.0 and Prior of 60.2 Feb 12 vs Jan 12′ Prices Paid: 65.6 vs 62.4 Production: 67.8 vs 63.8 New Orders: 69.2 vs 63.6 Order Backlogs: 53.6 vs 48.6 Inventories: 49.6 vs 51.6 Employment: 64.2 vs 54.7 – Highest Number since may of 1984 Supplier Deliveries: 57.7 vs 61.5

GBPUSD breaks above topside trendline resistance Posted: 29 Feb 2012 06:34 AM PST

A technical look at the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF Posted: 29 Feb 2012 06:19 AM PST

German official sees no risk that IMF not participate in bailout Posted: 29 Feb 2012 06:09 AM PST Adds that does not expect a decision on ESM size by the end of March

Better GDP. Consumption better Posted: 29 Feb 2012 05:37 AM PST The Annualized QoQ GDP came in better at 3% (expected 2.8%) Consumption: 2.1% vs 1.9% in the first cut. Investment rose to 20.6% from 20.0% in the advance release. Government fell -4.4% which was better than the -4.6% previously reported. Exports increased 4.3% vs 4.7% and imports rose 3.8% vs 4.4%. The net exports were slightly improved at -404.4 billion vs -405.8 billion. Contributions to the 3% Annualized Growth Consumption 1.52% Investment     2.42% Net Exports   -0.07% Government  -0.89% The US runs a trade deficit so Net Exports tend to be a negative contributor to GDP.  Federal Government subtracted -0.58% from GDP while State and Local government subtracted -0.30% Real Final Sales increased 1.1% which was better than the 0.8% previously reported

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.29.2012 Posted: 29 Feb 2012 05:32 AM PST Good Morning: 800 European banks took advantage of the ECB’s 3 year lending program.  The ECB distributed over 529 billion euros-this exceeded the 470 billion euros that was expected. The lending plan has alleviated a credit crunch in Europe, but has it helped increase lending in the EU?   In US political news- Mitt Romney won both the Arizona and Michigan Republican primaries on Tuesday.  He won Arizona with a big lead-but Michigan (his home state), only gave him a 3  point lead-which is a narrow margin for a native son-His father George Romney was a GM executive and Governor  of the state.  Arizona gave him a 22 point lead.  These will all lead to the next round of primaries-Super Tuesday which will be on March 8th. Gold is lower-but Silver is slightly higher.  Oil is trading just below $107/bbl. Equity markets are higher-as are US Futures.  Fed Chairman Bernanke in on his way to testify on Capital Hill this morning. He will deliver his semi annual report to the House Financial Services Committee. Beige Book released this afternoon. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

GDP and Personal Consumption Both Higher Posted: 29 Feb 2012 05:31 AM PST (Annualized):   Survey: 2.8%   Actual: 3.0%   Prior: 2.8%   Personal Consumption:   Survey: 2.0%   Actual: 2.1%   Prior: 2.0%   GDP Price Index:   Survey: 0.4%   Actual:  0.9%   Prior: 0.4%   Core PCE QoQ:   Survey: 1.1%   Actual: 1.3%   Prior: 1.1%

US GDP & Personal Consumption Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 29 Feb 2012 05:05 AM PST

ECB Lending higher than expectations. US GDP, Bernanke and Feds Beige Book awaited. Posted: 29 Feb 2012 04:52 AM PST CLICK ON PICTURE FOR PDF VERSION A total of 800 banks will receive a total of 529.5 billion euros ($712 billion) in the latest round of 3 year lending by the ECB.  This was higher than the previous 489 billion Euros (523 banks participated last time).  The total was higher than the 470 billion expected. The funds are which are intended to spur on lending has mainly led to a decline in yields of sovereign debt as banks take look to recapitalize their balance sheets with carry profits.  It has also averted a liquidity or credit crunch in the EU. Whether it encourages lending is still open for debate.  The results (which were released at 5:25 AM ET) led initially to a rally in the EURUSD. When the underside of old trendline resistance held, the price rotated to new lows for the day.  The EURUSD is starting NY near the middle of the post announcement range (at 1.3450) and will battle between the upside resistance and on the downside the 100 hour MA which comes in at the 1.3413 level (low reached 1.34215).  It is month end so, there could be unusual flows that cause choppy trading conditions so be aware.   In other EU news overnight, Germany Unemployment Change held steady MoM (0K vs -5K) and the Unemployment rate rose to 6.8% from an expected 6.7%.  EU CPI Estimate came in a touch lower at 2.6% (vs est of 2.7%).  The next 3months a total of 2.4% of MoM gains from last year will roll off (0.4%, 1.4% and 0.6%).  The net effect on the YoY inflation will be of interest to the mkt & the ECB.  Should economic activity slow more than expected it could give the ECB a reason to ease further (currently 1% target). Finland and the the Netherlands approved the Greek bailout.  In the UK Mortgage approvals increased to 58.7k (est 54K).  Swiss CPI fell by a greater than expected -0.7%  (-0.3% exp).  The EURCHF barely moved/the USDCHF moved higher but has since come back down. NZ building permits increased by 8.3% MoM which was much higher than the 3.4% expected. The news sent the NZDUSD to it’s highest level since Sep 1 2011.  It also pushed the pair above its month long Non trending range. The old high of 0.8426 will now be support for the pair.  Today US GDP will be released at 8:30 AM with the second cut of the data coming in unchanged at 2.8%. Consumption is expected to decline slightly to 1.9% from 2%. US Chicago PMI (10 AM) is est to show a rise to 61 from 60.2.  The Feds Bernanke testifies in Washington at 10 AM and the Fed’s Beige book will be released at 2 PM

MBA Mortgage Applications Released -0.3% vs Prior of -4.5% Posted: 29 Feb 2012 04:08 AM PST MBA Mortgage Applications Released -0.3% vs Prior of -4.5%

ECB lend banks 529.5 bln EUR for 3 years; more than the 470 bln estimate. Posted: 29 Feb 2012 02:27 AM PST BOE’s King says the ECB LTRO has removed the possibility of a bank run in the Eurozone and the UK.

Eurozone CPI (y/y) 2.6%; worse than the 2.7% forecast. Posted: 29 Feb 2012 02:20 AM PST Core CPI was also worse at 1.5%.

BOE’s Bean Posted: 29 Feb 2012 01:48 AM PST Expects subdued growth in the first half of 2012. Sees a gradual strengthening of the UK economy, easing a squeeze on household incomes. Expects inflation falling back to target the near term. Sees wages and oil prices as upside risks to inflation.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Irish vote on the EU fiscal compact not the end on failure
• Irish PM will hold referendum on the EU fiscal compact
• Richmond Fed better at 20 vs 14 expecations
• Richmond Fed Released Higher Alongside Consumer Confidence
• The 1.3425 area is a strong level intraday for the EURUSD
• USDCHF keeps below trendline resistance
• EURUSD falls post housing data but holds intraday support
• S&P Case-Shiller Numbers
• Case Shiller Home data add to the economic weak numbers today
• EURUSD chopping around after weaker Durables
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.28.2012
• Durables a disappointment
• German CPI comes in higher at 0.7% MoM and 2.3% YoY
• US Durable Goods Orders Much Lower Than Anticipated, Biggest Drop in 3 Years
• Traders prepare for the next LTRO tomorrow. Japan Retail Trade better than expected.

Irish vote on the EU fiscal compact not the end on failure Posted: 28 Feb 2012 07:24 AM PST According to sources, 12 of the 17 member states of the EU need to ratify the EU fiscal compact. If Ireland referendum vote is not passed, it does not mean the measures cannot be enacted.   The news nevertheless worried the market and new lows were made (below 1.33897. Low reached 1.33884). The close from yesterday at the 1.3396 and the 1.34066-1.34122 will be eyed as topside resistance.

Irish PM will hold referendum on the EU fiscal compact Posted: 28 Feb 2012 07:09 AM PST The EURUSD has moved lower on the headline on the uncertainty of the vote. The Irish Deputy PM Gilmore does add that he feels any referendum vote will pass.

Richmond Fed better at 20 vs 14 expecations Posted: 28 Feb 2012 07:01 AM PST Consumer Confidence better than expected at 70.8 as well. The up and down action continues for the EURUSD. The USDJPY pushed higher on the data. and looks toward the 80.71 level (broken trendline). The 100 hour MA at the 80.46 is now support. Not much rhythm to the market action today.

Richmond Fed Released Higher Alongside Consumer Confidence Posted: 28 Feb 2012 07:00 AM PST Consumer Confidence:    Survey: 63.0   Actual: 70.8    Prior: 61.1    Revised:  61.5 Highest consumer confidence number since February 2011. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index:  Survey:  14     Actual: 20   Prior: 12

The 1.3425 area is a strong level intraday for the EURUSD Posted: 28 Feb 2012 06:42 AM PST The 1.3425 area is shaping up as a level the market is paying attention to for the EURUSD.  There are a number of support levels at the area. Should the price move below the level, there should be some further selling in the pair, with a break of 1.3415 the next target. The pair has been in a quiet range today.  There is room for an extension (above or below) but it is a non-trendy type day and the market is unsure about the LTRO operation tomorrow.

USDCHF keeps below trendline resistance Posted: 28 Feb 2012 06:28 AM PST

EURUSD falls post housing data but holds intraday support Posted: 28 Feb 2012 06:10 AM PST The EURUSD fell on the Case Schiller data (risk off) but the buyers showed up against the 50% of the days range and the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. The  last intraday lows were also at the level.  Activity remains two way it seems for the pair as the market awaits the LTRO tomorrow. The 100 bar MA is at 1.3441. Traders will watch this level for intraday clues.

S&P Case-Shiller Numbers Posted: 28 Feb 2012 06:03 AM PST S&P Case-Shiller Numbers S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA: Survey: -0.35%, Actual:-0.50%, Prior: =0.70%, Revised: -0.74% S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY Survey: -3.65%, Actual: -3.99%, Prior: -3.67%, Revised:-3.85% S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YOY Survey: -4.30%, Actual: -4.03%, Prior: -3.90%, Revised: -3.70% S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Survey: 137.11, Actual: 136.71, Prior: 138.49, Revised: 138.24 S%P/Case-Shiller US HPI Actual: 125.67, Prior: 130.39, Revised: 130.66

Case Shiller Home data add to the economic weak numbers today Posted: 28 Feb 2012 06:02 AM PST The foreclosure hangover continues to be a problem according to officials

EURUSD chopping around after weaker Durables Posted: 28 Feb 2012 05:59 AM PST The EURUSD has been chopping around after the weaker Durables data. The price has support at the 1.3435 and resistance at 1.3455. The range for the EURUSD is narrow today at 72 pips. This leaves the door open for an extension of the range in NY trading.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.28.2012 Posted: 28 Feb 2012 05:40 AM PST Good Morning: The Greek sage continues: S&P cuts Greece’s rating to “selective default” from CC.  This was expected once the debt swaps started.  S&P sees the Greek debt plan as nothing but a distressed restructuring. Markets reacted positively to the initial news that the German Parliament voted in favor of the aid package to Greece.  It seems that the German courts may have a challenge to this aid package-we will see what happens in due time. In US economic data Durable goods tumbled 4%-a dreadful report.  Durable goods data is always volatile-but this will be a hard number to overcome. World equity and US Futures are higher. Gold and silver are higher-while oil is stable. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Durables a disappointment Posted: 28 Feb 2012 05:36 AM PST The numbers were weak across the board.  They are guessing that the expiration of a tax incentive allowing full depreciation of equiptment purchases may have led to the sharp decline in January as purchases were front loaded in 2011.  The fall ex transportaton of -3.2% was the most since October 2010.  Civil aircraft orders fell 19%.  Orders for non defense capital goods excluding aircraft fell by 4.5%. This is thought to be an indication of overall  business investment. All in all, a disappointment as the New Year and quarter got started.

German CPI comes in higher at 0.7% MoM and 2.3% YoY Posted: 28 Feb 2012 05:32 AM PST They were expecting 0.5% and 2.1% respectively

US Durable Goods Orders Much Lower Than Anticipated, Biggest Drop in 3 Years Posted: 28 Feb 2012 05:31 AM PST Durable Goods Orders:   Survey:  -1.0%    Actual: -4.0%    Prior: 3.0%  Revised: 3.2% Durables Ex Transportation:   Survey: 0.0%   Actual:  -3.2%   Prior:  2.1%   Revised: 2.1%

Traders prepare for the next LTRO tomorrow. Japan Retail Trade better than expected. Posted: 28 Feb 2012 04:47 AM PST The ranges overnight are generally narrow in comparison to the 20 day averages with the dollar down against most of the currency pairs.  Traders may look to extend the ranges in the NY session so be aware.  The EURUSD increased on the eve of the next phase of the LTRO on the thought that the operation is risk supportive and the EURUSD is a risk currency pair (at least that is the story). Whether or not an additional 400, 500, 600  billion or 1 trillion of liquidity (there is no limit) is good or not will not be decided until the tomorrow.   What is known is the 1st piece of liquidity was successful in reducing sovereign debt fears and lowered bond yields in the Eurozone and was a boost (at least initially) for the EURUSD.  However, when the US embarked on it’s quanitative easing, the dollar fell.  So risk will be increased and traders can expect volatile market conditions.   The estimate is for 470 billion Euros ($631 billion) according to a Bloomberg survey.  In the last operation they gave banks 489 billion euros.  In other news out of the EU, S&P said Greek was in selective default following their insertion of collective action clauses in some sovereign debt documentation. EU Business Climate indicator came in weaker at -0.18 vs -0.15 expectations.  Services Confidence came in at -0.9 vs -0.6 exp, Consumer Confidence came in at -20.3 vs -20.2 exp, and Industrial Confidence came in at -5.8 vs -6.9 exp.  German inflation numbers are being released from the different regions with most showing elevated increases of 0.8% MoM, the expectations is for a 0.5% increase.  Japan Retail Trade grew by a larger than expected 4.1% MoM vs 1% last.  The  USDJPY initially declined on the news but then rallied back higher. The EURJPY tested the 100 hour MA on the decline and found buyers at the key technical level (see chart).  In the UK the CPI reported retail sales  at -2 vs expectations of -12. The GBPUSD rallied after falling to the 50% retracement of the Friday sharp move higher.  The AUDUSD is mired in a month long non trending range and is back near the topside resistance area.  Last week, the price tested the bottom end (actually made a new low for the month) but could not muster additional selling pressure.  The other commodity currency pairs NZDUSD and USDCAD are in similar chart patterns.  A breakout will be eyed for these pairs that could lead to a trend move. US Durable Good Orders will be released at 8:30 with expectatations of -1% with 0.0% for ex Transportation. S&P Home Sales for the top 20 cities are expected to show -3.65%.  US Consumer Confidence (63 vs 61.1 last) and Richmond Fed (14 vs 12) are expected at 10 AM ET.  Feds Duke speaks at 10. SNBs Jordan speaks at 12:30 PM ET.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD approaches the 100 hour MA
• US Pending Home Sales better at +2%
• US Pending Home Sales Higher
• USDJPY moves below 100 hour MA for the 1st time since Feb 3rd
• Merkel says idea of swift solution to Greek crisis is an illusion
• EURUSD tests trendline support
• EURUSD falls on lack of G20 help. JPY moves higher bucking the dollars strength today.
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.27.2012
• Not much help for the EU from G20. Greece implementation eyed. Yen moves higher, bucking the dollar strength trend today
• French Producer Price Index up 0.6% from prior month, 0.3% rise was expected
• 2-27 Economic Calendar
• The Forex Week Ahead
• oilusd continue to rise breaking through this channel.
• Aussie: Gillard Wins Leadership Vote, Ending Rudd’s Bid to Return to Job
• China Sets Yuan Reference Rate @6.2985

EURUSD approaches the 100 hour MA Posted: 27 Feb 2012 07:26 AM PST The 1.3409 level  is the 100 hour MA . The 38.2% of the leg down to the downside comes in at the 1.3403 level.  This is intraday resistance for the pair.

US Pending Home Sales better at +2% Posted: 27 Feb 2012 07:16 AM PST The YoY rose by 10.3%. Pending Home Sales are a precursor to Existing Home Sales as they represent contracts signed.  The better employment situation in the US is triggering the better tone in the housing market. Interest rates are low. Prices are down and combined with better employment is the recipe for buying. The better data has helped push the USDJPY back higher with the pair testing the underside of the broken trendline at the 80.399 currently. Staying below that level keeps the bears in charge. A move above could lead to further buying intraday.

US Pending Home Sales Higher Posted: 27 Feb 2012 07:15 AM PST US PENDING HOME SALES HIGHER Survey: 1.0%, Actual: 2.0%, Previous: -3.5%, Revision: -1.9%

USDJPY moves below 100 hour MA for the 1st time since Feb 3rd Posted: 27 Feb 2012 06:16 AM PST The USDJPY has moved below the 100 hour MA for the first time since February 3rd at the 80.30 level. The price has also moved below a trendline support line at the 80.38 level. These levels will now be eyed as topside resistance today. The 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) will now be target support for the pair. That level comes in at the 79.688 level. The 38.2% of the rally up from the Feb 1 low comes in at the 79.499 level. Interim support may come in at the low from last Thursdays trading at the 79.85 area. The 100 hour MA was tested at this level and the level also corresponded with the high from Feb 21. The USDJPY has moved steadily higher over the month of  February with 13 of 18 trading days moving higher. Today is the largest 1 day decline for the pair over that time period.

Merkel says idea of swift solution to Greek crisis is an illusion Posted: 27 Feb 2012 06:10 AM PST Road is long and not without risk EU commission will boost control measures in Greece IMF role is indespensible and is a precondition for Germany Greece exit would come with unforeseeable risks She urges the lawmakers to pass the second bailout The German Parliament is debating the bailout of Greece.  A vote is expected in a few hours.

EURUSD tests trendline support Posted: 27 Feb 2012 05:57 AM PST The EURUSD has continued the move lower in  early NY trading and has moved down to test the trendline support at the 1.3370 level.  There should be some intraday buying against the trendline which extends up from the Feb 16th low, with stops on a break below. A move below this level will target the spike high from last Thursday at the 1.3341 level and below that the 100 hour MA at the 1.3320 level currently (see chart above). On the topside the market will be eyeing  the 1.34097 which is the 38.2% of the move down from the last leg down (see chart below).  Staying below this level will keep the bears firmly in charge as skepticism from last weeks gains, fades. The 100 day MA comes in at the 1.3305 level today. Last week the price moved above this MA for the 1st time since October 31st 2011 and moved higher.  A move back below this key moving average will be a failure.  Keep this level in mind as the trading progresses this week.

EURUSD falls on lack of G20 help. JPY moves higher bucking the dollars strength today. Posted: 27 Feb 2012 05:25 AM PST

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.27.2012 Posted: 27 Feb 2012 05:15 AM PST Good Morning: The markets is full of jitters today:  Is it the Iranian oil situation dragging on global growth prospects-or the lackluster G-20 meeting?  Either way-equities, oil, gold are all lower this morning. At the G-20 meeting, the group indicated that Europe needs to strengthen their bailout program.  Germany has been a holdout in approving more funds for the European bailout program. The G-20 did not offer their assistance-but called on Europe to increase their bailout program.  Many analysts feel that Europe does not need outside funding-but leadership by the stronger nations in the EU. World equities are lower-as are US Futures. Gold, silver and oil are all lower this morning. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Not much help for the EU from G20. Greece implementation eyed. Yen moves higher, bucking the dollar strength trend today Posted: 27 Feb 2012 05:06 AM PST The G20 over the weekend deferred aid to Europe until the details of the European rescue fund can be decided. That fund, which is looking to combine the funds left in the Europeans Stability Mechanism (or ESM) into the European Facility Stability Fund (or EFSF), would create a 1 trillion dollar pool of resources that would then be combined with an additional 1 trillion from the IMF, to put a ring or firewall around the troubled nations within the EU.  The implementation still requires Germany’s well wishes as well as others coming together including Greece itself. They still need the approval of their proposed debt restructuring with the Private Sector (so called PSI) which calls for a 53% haircut on existing debt. Moody’s chief economist said that implementation risks for reform remain very high.  So although steps were made last week that sent the EURUSD to the highest levels since December 1st on Friday (at 1.3485), the new week is starting with a move lower in the pair. The price is back below the 50% of the move down from the October 2011 high to the January low (at the 1.34344 level).  Staying below that level today, will be eyed by the bears today.  In Australia, PM  Julia Gillard retained her position after soundly defeating former PM Rudd.  The AUDUSD has moved lower on the day but has recovered some of the losses.  The pair remains in consolidation range since the beginning of the month.  The dollar overall moved higher against all the major currencies except the Japanese Yen.  The USDJPY has been moving higher with 13 of 17 days in the month of February moving to the upside.  Today, the price nearly reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move down from the 2011 high at the 81.708 level (high reached 80.645), before finding wiling sellers.  The  price decline is the steepest since the beginning of the rally on February 1st and has seen the price move back down to test the 100 hour MA at the 80.30 level currently. This level will be eyed in the NY session today. A move below could lead to some further selling pressure. US Pending Home sales will be released at 8:30 AM today with expectations of a 1% gain vs a 3.5% decline last month. The Forex Week Ahead webinar will be held at 9:30 AM today. To register please go to: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/442410992

French Producer Price Index up 0.6% from prior month, 0.3% rise was expected Posted: 26 Feb 2012 11:56 PM PST Eur/Usd up about 10 pips to 1.3464 on news.

2-27 Economic Calendar Posted: 26 Feb 2012 09:05 PM PST

The Forex Week Ahead Posted: 26 Feb 2012 08:57 PM PST I will review the key releases and events in “The Forex Week Ahead” webinar, Monday at 9:30 AM ET. To register, click here: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/442410992

oilusd continue to rise breaking through this channel. Posted: 26 Feb 2012 06:57 PM PST oilusd continue to rise breaking through this channel.

Aussie: Gillard Wins Leadership Vote, Ending Rudd’s Bid to Return to Job Posted: 26 Feb 2012 06:52 PM PST

China Sets Yuan Reference Rate @6.2985 Posted: 26 Feb 2012 05:45 PM PST

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Fed’s Bullard With Further Comments
• Week ahead in Trading, this Monday at 9:30am with Greg Michalowski
• Merkel and Juncker Speak in Germany
• Feds Williams Speaks in New York

Fed’s Bullard With Further Comments Posted: 24 Feb 2012 09:50 AM PST Fed’s Bullard With Further Comments 2014 pledge overemphasizes Fed forecast ability Fed’s Bullard says QE3 is reasonable if there is a markdown from the FOMC’s forecast, and inflation declines

Week ahead in Trading, this Monday at 9:30am with Greg Michalowski Posted: 24 Feb 2012 08:58 AM PST Week ahead in Trading, this Monday at 9:30am with Greg Michalowski – Register now

Merkel and Juncker Speak in Germany Posted: 24 Feb 2012 08:23 AM PST Merkel says: Greek aid to be paid if Greece meets conditions Greek PSI is ‘new territory’ need to await outcome EU summit next week to address spurring economies Juncker says: ‘Night isn’t over’ on sealing aid for Greece Cites need to complete Greek PSI ‘No alternative’ to Greece meeting budget pledges

Feds Williams Speaks in New York Posted: 24 Feb 2012 07:50 AM PST Feds Williams Speaks Housing ‘major factor in ‘sluggish’ recovery Fed policy addressing aggregate-demand shortfall Housing isnt only reason for demand shortfall

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Greek Finance Ministry Says: Debt Swap Announcement Will be Online Soon
• ECBs Stark on the Wires
• New Home Sales Come out Higher, MoM Lower
• University of Michigan Confidence Comes Out Higher
• coMexico Unemployment Rate Slightly Lower and Trade Balance Much Lower Than Expected
• Angela Merkel Press Conference
• Tim Geithner Speaking
• Feds Bullard Speaks on CNBC TV
• Mexico Unemployment and Trade Balance Data Due at 9AM
• UK GDP y/y revised to 0.7% from 0.8%; Q4 GDP down 0.2%
• German Final GDP as expected at -0.2% for Q4
• 2-24 Economic Calendar
• China Sets Yuan Reference Rate@ 6.2965
• Japan’s Corp Service Price Index Continues to be Deflationary @-0.2% (0.1% estimate/prior_
• EURJPY Pushing Up on Resistance 38.2%/200day – Could Continue Higher

Greek Finance Ministry Says: Debt Swap Announcement Will be Online Soon Posted: 24 Feb 2012 07:28 AM PST Greek Finance Ministry Says: Debt Swap Announcement Will be Online Soon

ECBs Stark on the Wires Posted: 24 Feb 2012 07:16 AM PST ECBs Stark on the Wires Stark Says: Draghi is right on whats needed in Euro economies The risk of Euro area breakup is exaggerated The euro will continue, absolutely There’s progress in Euro area institutional reform Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland aware progress is needed 500 Bln firewall is sufficient Market impact of me quitting was short lived Central bank shouldn’t do monetary financing Europe will overcome crisis will be stronger Buying of government bonds by the ECB postponed needed adjustments in higher debt countries

New Home Sales Come out Higher, MoM Lower Posted: 24 Feb 2012 07:02 AM PST New Home Sales Come out Higher, MoM Lower New Home Sales: Survey: 315k, Actual: 321k, Prior: 307k, Revision: 324k New Home Sales MoM: Survey: 2.6%, Actual: -0.9%, Prior: -2.2%, Revision: 1.9%

University of Michigan Confidence Comes Out Higher Posted: 24 Feb 2012 06:56 AM PST University of Michigan Confidence Comes Out Higher Prior: 73.0, Actual: 75.3, Prior: 72.5

coMexico Unemployment Rate Slightly Lower and Trade Balance Much Lower Than Expected Posted: 24 Feb 2012 06:00 AM PST Mexico Unemployment Rate Slightly Lower and Trade Balance Much Lower Than Expected   Unemployment Rate Survey: 5.06%, Actual: 4.90%, Prior: 4.51% Trade Balance Survey: 160.00M, Actual: -287.20M, Prior: 6.60M

Angela Merkel Press Conference Posted: 24 Feb 2012 05:44 AM PST Angela Merkel Press Conference Greek bankruptcy would have unpredictable impact on banks and the economy Greek bankruptcy would be highly risky Greece still must aim for a consolidated budget and stick to its budget pact.

Tim Geithner Speaking Posted: 24 Feb 2012 05:43 AM PST Tim Geithner Speaking Less likely Europe will cause global contagion IMF can play larger role after European firewall Other nations waiting for Europe to act Congress has to act to help the housing market

Feds Bullard Speaks on CNBC TV Posted: 24 Feb 2012 04:29 AM PST Says: Sees 3% possible growth in 2012 7.8% Unemployment possible by end of year I wouldnt take QE3 off table ever Economy might look different in 6-9 months Labor markets have improved recently Unemployment situation not great Fed rate hike in 2013

Mexico Unemployment and Trade Balance Data Due at 9AM Posted: 24 Feb 2012 04:23 AM PST

UK GDP y/y revised to 0.7% from 0.8%; Q4 GDP down 0.2% Posted: 24 Feb 2012 01:45 AM PST Gbp/Usd dropped 10 points upon release and has since rebounded to session high of 1.5797.

German Final GDP as expected at -0.2% for Q4 Posted: 23 Feb 2012 11:01 PM PST

2-24 Economic Calendar Posted: 23 Feb 2012 08:38 PM PST

China Sets Yuan Reference Rate@ 6.2965 Posted: 23 Feb 2012 05:37 PM PST

Japan’s Corp Service Price Index Continues to be Deflationary @-0.2% (0.1% estimate/prior_ Posted: 23 Feb 2012 04:22 PM PST

EURJPY Pushing Up on Resistance 38.2%/200day – Could Continue Higher Posted: 23 Feb 2012 03:37 PM PST

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US House Price Index Higher at 0.7%
• US House Price Index Data Due at 10AM
• Dutch Finance Minister says does not rule out Greece needing more public sector aid
• GBPUSD consolidates near days highs.
• Fed’s Fisher on CNBC
• US Jobless Claims Slightly Better Than Expectations
• Venizelos: Greece Will be a Different Country After Debt Swap
• US Jobless Claims & Continue Claims Data Due at 8:30AM
• The US dollar falls on better German data, but lower GDP estimates are a reminder of the risks
• UK CPI Industrial Order Expectations -3; better than the -14 forecast and -16 expectations.
• EU’s Rehn
• PIMCO’s Japanese portfolio management head says the BOJ is likely to be more proactive than before in beating the JPY rise and deflation.
• UK BBA Mortgage Approvals (Jan) 38,092 vs. 36,250 expected (36.553 prior).
• Euro re-tests highs following German IFO release.
• IFO’s Abberger

US House Price Index Higher at 0.7% Posted: 23 Feb 2012 07:02 AM PST House Price Index(MoM):  Survey:  0.1%   Actual:  0.7%   Prior:  1.0%   Revised: 0.7%

US House Price Index Data Due at 10AM Posted: 23 Feb 2012 06:30 AM PST

Dutch Finance Minister says does not rule out Greece needing more public sector aid Posted: 23 Feb 2012 06:07 AM PST Meanwhile the Eurogroup has announced a March 1st meeting.

GBPUSD consolidates near days highs. Posted: 23 Feb 2012 05:41 AM PST The GBPUSD based in to the Asian and early London session and then shot higher.  The move higher has pushed the price back above the 100 day MA (see blue line in the chart below – currently at the 1.5695 level).  Traders will want to see the price stay above this level today.  Interim support should come in against the floor developing over the last few hours and the upside trend line in the shorter term chart above  (see trendlines in the  chart above). Those levels come in currently at the 1.5702/04 area. On the topside today, resistance comes in at the 1.5735 which is the 38.2% of the weeks move lower.  A break above this level would target the trendline resistance at 1.5743 and the 200 hour MA at the 1.5758 level currently. The move higher has been helped by a move out of the dollar today. The UK also had better home sales data this morning.

Fed’s Fisher on CNBC Posted: 23 Feb 2012 05:39 AM PST Fed’s Fisher on CNBC Says: ‘Tone is a lot better’ among businesses Jan 25 FOMC statement was ‘talking down the economy’ Fed should be ‘cautious’ and ‘do the right thing’ ‘Things are getting better, not worse’ He sees no need for quantitative easing ‘Our job is not to prob up the street’ Any expectation for new QE is ‘wishful thinking’ U.S. ‘still has too many people out of work’ Will be ‘pleased’ when FOMC develops an exit strategy FOMC likely to keep rates low until improvement

US Jobless Claims Slightly Better Than Expectations Posted: 23 Feb 2012 05:31 AM PST Jobless Claims:  Survey:  355K    Actual: 351K   Prior: 348K    Revised:  351K    Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3455K    Actual:  3392K    Prior: 3426K   Revised: 3444K

Venizelos: Greece Will be a Different Country After Debt Swap Posted: 23 Feb 2012 04:30 AM PST Venizelos: Greece Will be a Different Country After Debt Swap

US Jobless Claims & Continue Claims Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 23 Feb 2012 04:26 AM PST

The US dollar falls on better German data, but lower GDP estimates are a reminder of the risks Posted: 23 Feb 2012 04:04 AM PST The US dollar is down against all the major currencies as better data out of Germany pushed flows into the risk currency pairs. The German IFO Business Climate index came in at 109.6 versus expectations of 108.8.  This was the highest level since July 2011.  Movement toward a Greek solution and overall better tone in the debt markets of the EU from the ECB’s Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) calmed fears.  The second tranche of the LTRO will be made available next week with demand once again expected to be strong.  Germany’s IFO also published the Current Assessment and Expectations indices which were also better than expectations.  Current Assessment rose to 117.5 vs expectations of 116.5 and the Expectations Index advanced to 102.3 vs. 102.0 expectations.   Although the business climate might be better this month, the EU Commission signalled the expectations for a shrinking EU economy in 2012.  The report shows that they expect the EU combined economies will contract by 0.3% for the year which was lower than the November forecast for 0.5% gain.  Although the Commission expects the German economy and French economies to grow by 0.6% (down from 0.8% in November) and 0.4% (was 0.6%) respectively, they are looking for a -1.3% decline in Italy, a -1% decline in Spain, a -4.4% decline in Greece (was projected as a 2.8% decline in November) and a -3.3% estimated decline in Portugal (was -3% previously).  The declines do not bode well for deficit reduction targets especially for the troubled nations of Greece, Portugal, and Spain.  Raising an eyebrow is the projections in the budget for Greece out to 2020 which are estimating a 2.6% gain in GDP over that period. This rosy outlook was needed to help lower the Debt to GDP ratio to the desired 120.5% target.   The GDP projections for Greece in 2012 highlight the risks inherent in the projections for deficit reductions for the nation.  In the US Initial Claims will be released at 8:30 with expectations for a rise to 355K from 348K last wk.

UK CPI Industrial Order Expectations -3; better than the -14 forecast and -16 expectations. Posted: 23 Feb 2012 03:22 AM PST

EU’s Rehn Posted: 23 Feb 2012 02:47 AM PST Euro are has entered a mild recession. Economic prospects have worsened, risks to growth remain. Recent surveys suggest expected slowdown will be mild, but no strong turnaround seen as of yet. Any decision on Spanish deficit target to be taken when all economic data has been released by Eurostat. All decisiosn on Spain deficit outlook to wait until after March. Expects Spain to share all information with EU over fiscal slippages in 2011. States under close scrutiny should be ready to meet budget targets. Essential that Spain ensures sustainability of its public finances. Quarterly review of Portugal’s aid program to be concluded next week.

PIMCO’s Japanese portfolio management head says the BOJ is likely to be more proactive than before in beating the JPY rise and deflation. Posted: 23 Feb 2012 02:14 AM PST

UK BBA Mortgage Approvals (Jan) 38,092 vs. 36,250 expected (36.553 prior). Posted: 23 Feb 2012 01:31 AM PST

Euro re-tests highs following German IFO release. Posted: 23 Feb 2012 01:22 AM PST The euro was getting some help from higher European equities, but broke today’s highs with the release of a better than expected German IFO reading. The pair is currently testing the highs on the daily chart, with the next topside target being 1.33564, a support level from last December.

IFO’s Abberger Posted: 23 Feb 2012 01:12 AM PST Does not see a recession in Germany for now. German domestic situation is particularly stable. High energy prices add additional risk, may hit consumption and auto sector. ECB interest rates are appropriate.

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