Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- US Leading Indicators a Touch Lower Than Expectations 0.4% versus 0.5% Survey, Revision Also Improved to 0.5%
- USDCHF tests 200 hour MA
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.17.2012
- EURUSD holds on the first test of key resistance
- GBPUSD chops around. Tests days midpoint and intraday 100 bar MA
- ECB Knot says more should be done to get debt to GDP to 60%
- US Consumer Price Index Data Slightly Lower
- Canadian Leading Indicators MoM Lower Than Previous
- The EURUSD between the 100 and 200 hour MA. Approaches resistance area
- ECB considering to allow bonds held in EU Central banks to be subject to PSI writedowns
- GBPUSD advances on better retail sales. USDJPY continues advance higher
- The Morning Forex Review
- German President Wulff announces resignation.
- UK Retail Sales 0.9%; stronger than the -0.3% expectation (0.6% prior).
- SNB’s Moser says CHF remains strong, cap countered massive over valuation. Ready to act if needed.
| Posted: 17 Feb 2012 07:01 AM PST US Leading Indicators a Touch Lower Than Expectations 0.4% versus 0.5% Survey, Revision Also Improved to 0.5% |
| Posted: 17 Feb 2012 06:23 AM PST
The USDCHF has been in a narrow range consolidation range after the sharp move lower yesterday found support buyers between the 100 and 200 hour MA (blue and green lines in the chart above). Today the price has been mainly confined by those two moving averages once again. There were a couple bars which closed above the 100 hour MA, but the midpoint of the weeks range was another hurdle on the topside. Now the price is testing support against the 200 hour MA. On a break, traders will be looking for the bar to develop momentum to the downside and ultimately a close below the MA level (at the 0.9156 level currently). Until the break, trader’s may continue to look at the level as an area to buy as the weekend approaches. |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.17.2012 Posted: 17 Feb 2012 05:49 AM PST
This is just like last Friday: The markets are jittery ahead of next Monday’s vote on the latest Greek bailout program. Traders will be scared to be short Euro this weekend-as no one knows what new developments will occur over the weekend-it is always something. Crude oil is now about to approach $103/bbl-as the tension between Iran and the majority of the world continues. Gold and Silver continue to climb today. World equity markets are higher-along with Us Futures. HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK We will be at the NY Traders Expo Feb. 19-21 in NYC- if you are in the area-please stop by to say hello. |
| EURUSD holds on the first test of key resistance Posted: 17 Feb 2012 05:43 AM PST
The one thing to consider with this key level is the low to high trading range for the EURUSD is still at a very narrow level at 75 pips. As a result, the market has some room to roam on a break higher. The 1.3115 is the next target above (high from Tuesday).
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| GBPUSD chops around. Tests days midpoint and intraday 100 bar MA Posted: 17 Feb 2012 05:40 AM PST
Better UK retail sales sent the GBPUSD higher but choppy action has taken charge. The pair is back at the days midpoint a tthe 1.58243 level and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is close by at the 1.5920 level. |
| ECB Knot says more should be done to get debt to GDP to 60% Posted: 17 Feb 2012 05:33 AM PST Earlier the central banker said:
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| US Consumer Price Index Data Slightly Lower Posted: 17 Feb 2012 05:33 AM PST Consumer Price Index MoM: Survey: 0.3% Actual: 0.2% Prior: 0.0% Consumer Price Index YoY: Survey: 2.8% Actual: 2.9% Prior: 3.0%
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| Canadian Leading Indicators MoM Lower Than Previous Posted: 17 Feb 2012 05:30 AM PST Survey: 0.6%, Actual: 0.7%, Prior: 0.8%, Revised: 0.7% |
| The EURUSD between the 100 and 200 hour MA. Approaches resistance area Posted: 17 Feb 2012 05:26 AM PST
The EURUSD approaches the 200 hour MA, the 61.8% retracement, and the downside trendline all at the 1.3183-91 area. This level is key resistance for the pair and I would expect some profit taking against the level. A move above would open the door for further upside gains with the 1.3215 the next target. On the downside, the price held the 100 hour MA on the last dip down. This gave traders the confidence to push the price higher. A move below the level later today would open the door to further downside momentum. |
| ECB considering to allow bonds held in EU Central banks to be subject to PSI writedowns Posted: 17 Feb 2012 05:19 AM PST This is contrary to the report yesterday that they would be immune from PSI haircuts/writedowns. The chance according to sources is 50-50 though. Yesterday it seemed like a certainty that they would be immune. Today, they are rethinking the idea. |
| GBPUSD advances on better retail sales. USDJPY continues advance higher Posted: 17 Feb 2012 05:12 AM PST
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| Posted: 17 Feb 2012 04:47 AM PST The GBPUSD received a boost this morning from better than expected Retail Sales. Total Retail Sales increased by 0.9% in January versus expectations of -0.3%. This came on the back of a 0.6% gain in December. Ex Fuel, the gains were even better with sales rising by 1.2% (expectations -0.3%). The gains pushed the GBPUSD above the 61.8% of the move down from the Feb 8th high at the 1.5818. The 200 day MA at the 1.5914 level today is the next key target on the topside for the pair. On Feb 8th, the price tested the MA level and fell off. In the Eurozone, officials seem eager to come to a conclusion. Yesterday, the Greeks announced they had completed the process to satisfy the EU/IMF and today the Greek Government is to submit the bill to parliament outlining the spending cuts. THe Eurozone leaders are scheduled to meet on Monday. Today, concensus of a conference call between Greece’s Papademos, Germany’s Merkel and Italian’s Monti was of “optimism”with Monti commenting that the leaders are confident of a Greek deal. Yesterday the EU Central banks announced that they will look to swap there Greek bonds for new bonds as a way to not be caught up in any restructuring haircut that would weaken the bond holdings of the member states. There is concern today that such an arrangement might make private bondholders of other EU debt, subordinate and this may lead to selling of the troubled debt of countries like Portugal. The EURUSD starts the NY day higher versus yesterday’s close, but still in a narrow trading range. The pair targets the 200 hour MA (at 1.3183) which held resistance on Wednesday. The USDJPY continued its march higher after the surprise QE announcement by the BOJ earlier this week. The pair is now at the highest level since October 31st when the BOJ secretly intervened in the currency market. The high on that day reached 79.52 and this is the next target. Canada announced CPI a touch higher (0.4% vs 0.3%). US CPI will be released at 8:30 AM with exp. of 0.3% (core 0.2%). Leading indicators are expected to rise 0.5%. |
| German President Wulff announces resignation. Posted: 17 Feb 2012 02:08 AM PST |
| UK Retail Sales 0.9%; stronger than the -0.3% expectation (0.6% prior). Posted: 17 Feb 2012 01:32 AM PST
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| SNB’s Moser says CHF remains strong, cap countered massive over valuation. Ready to act if needed. Posted: 17 Feb 2012 01:25 AM PST |
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