Forex Market Updates & Commentary

US House Price Index Higher at 0.7%
US House Price Index Data Due at 10AM
Dutch Finance Minister says does not rule out Greece needing more public sector aid
GBPUSD consolidates near days highs.
Fed’s Fisher on CNBC
US Jobless Claims Slightly Better Than Expectations
Venizelos: Greece Will be a Different Country After Debt Swap
US Jobless Claims & Continue Claims Data Due at 8:30AM
The US dollar falls on better German data, but lower GDP estimates are a reminder of the risks
UK CPI Industrial Order Expectations -3; better than the -14 forecast and -16 expectations.
EU’s Rehn
PIMCO’s Japanese portfolio management head says the BOJ is likely to be more proactive than before in beating the JPY rise and deflation.
UK BBA Mortgage Approvals (Jan) 38,092 vs. 36,250 expected (36.553 prior).
Euro re-tests highs following German IFO release.
IFO’s Abberger

US House Price Index Higher at 0.7%

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 07:02 AM PST

House Price Index(MoM): Survey: 0.1% Actual: 0.7% Prior: 1.0% Revised: 0.7%

US House Price Index Data Due at 10AM

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 06:30 AM PST

Dutch Finance Minister says does not rule out Greece needing more public sector aid

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 06:07 AM PST

Meanwhile the Eurogroup has announced a March 1st meeting.

GBPUSD consolidates near days highs.

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 05:41 AM PST

The GBPUSD based in to the Asian and early London session and then shot higher. The move higher has pushed the price back above the 100 day MA (see blue line in the chart below – currently at the 1.5695 level). Traders will want to see the price stay above this level today. Interim support should come in against the floor developing over the last few hours and the upside trend line in the shorter term chart above (see trendlines in the chart above). Those levels come in currently at the 1.5702/04 area.

On the topside today, resistance comes in at the 1.5735 which is the 38.2% of the weeks move lower. A break above this level would target the trendline resistance at 1.5743 and the 200 hour MA at the 1.5758 level currently.

The move higher has been helped by a move out of the dollar today. The UK also had better home sales data this morning.

Fed’s Fisher on CNBC

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 05:39 AM PST

Fed’s Fisher on CNBC

Says:

‘Tone is a lot better’ among businesses
Jan 25 FOMC statement was ‘talking down the economy’
Fed should be ‘cautious’ and ‘do the right thing’
‘Things are getting better, not worse’
He sees no need for quantitative easing
‘Our job is not to prob up the street’
Any expectation for new QE is ‘wishful thinking’
U.S. ‘still has too many people out of work’
Will be ‘pleased’ when FOMC develops an exit strategy
FOMC likely to keep rates low until improvement

US Jobless Claims Slightly Better Than Expectations

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 05:31 AM PST

Jobless Claims: Survey: 355K Actual: 351K Prior: 348K Revised: 351K

Continuing Claims: Survey: 3455K Actual: 3392K Prior: 3426K Revised: 3444K

Venizelos: Greece Will be a Different Country After Debt Swap

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 04:30 AM PST

Venizelos: Greece Will be a Different Country After Debt Swap

US Jobless Claims & Continue Claims Data Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 04:26 AM PST

The US dollar falls on better German data, but lower GDP estimates are a reminder of the risks

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 04:04 AM PST

The US dollar is down against all the major currencies as better data out of Germany pushed flows into the risk currency pairs. The German IFO Business Climate index came in at 109.6 versus expectations of 108.8. This was the highest level since July 2011. Movement toward a Greek solution and overall better tone in the debt markets of the EU from the ECB’s Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) calmed fears. The second tranche of the LTRO will be made available next week with demand once again expected to be strong. Germany’s IFO also published the Current Assessment and Expectations indices which were also better than expectations. Current Assessment rose to 117.5 vs expectations of 116.5 and the Expectations Index advanced to 102.3 vs. 102.0 expectations. Although the business climate might be better this month, the EU Commission signalled the expectations for a shrinking EU economy in 2012. The report shows that they expect the EU combined economies will contract by 0.3% for the year which was lower than the November forecast for 0.5% gain. Although the Commission expects the German economy and French economies to grow by 0.6% (down from 0.8% in November) and 0.4% (was 0.6%) respectively, they are looking for a -1.3% decline in Italy, a -1% decline in Spain, a -4.4% decline in Greece (was projected as a 2.8% decline in November) and a -3.3% estimated decline in Portugal (was -3% previously). The declines do not bode well for deficit reduction targets especially for the troubled nations of Greece, Portugal, and Spain. Raising an eyebrow is the projections in the budget for Greece out to 2020 which are estimating a 2.6% gain in GDP over that period. This rosy outlook was needed to help lower the Debt to GDP ratio to the desired 120.5% target. The GDP projections for Greece in 2012 highlight the risks inherent in the projections for deficit reductions for the nation. In the US Initial Claims will be released at 8:30 with expectations for a rise to 355K from 348K last wk.

UK CPI Industrial Order Expectations -3; better than the -14 forecast and -16 expectations.

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 03:22 AM PST

EU’s Rehn

Posted: 23 Feb 2012 02:47 AM PST

Euro are has entered a mild recession.
Economic prospects have worsened, risks to growth remain.
Recent surveys suggest expected slowdown will be mild, but no strong turnaround seen as of yet.
Any decision on Spanish deficit target to be taken when all economic data has been released by Eurostat.
All decisiosn on Spain deficit outlook to wait until after March.
Expects Spain to share all information with EU over fiscal slippages in 2011.
States under close scrutiny should be ready to meet budget targets.
Essential that Spain ensures sustainability of its public finances.
Quarterly review of Portugal’s aid program to be concluded next week.