Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD looks to test the 9 day high
• Bernanke on the Wires with Similar Dialogue to Last Week’s House Panel
• IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and JOLTs Job Openings both Higher
• USDJPY finds sellers against retracement level
• EURUSD moves higher on Greek statement (Again)
• Canada permits send the USDCAD lower
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.7.2012
• Canada Building Permits Surge
• Reserve Bank of Australia surprises the market. Dollar gains vs EURUSD but gains contained
• Canada Building Permits Due at 8:30AM
• SNB’s Jordan says “won’t tolerate” CHF breaching 1.20 against the Euro.
• German Industrial Production (Dec) -2.9% vs. 0.0% expected.
• German deputy Fin. Minster says Germany and France are not trying to push Greece from the EMU.
• EUR/USD re-tests 1.3167
• PIMCO says a hard landing for China is only a “tail-risk scenario”.

EURUSD looks to test the 9 day high Posted: 07 Feb 2012 07:21 AM PST The EURUSD is moving closer and closer to the 9 day high at the 1.3226 level.   Traders who are long will likely sell against the level but a move above should not be faded.  The price has been in a 201 pip trading range for the last 9 days of trading. The price has been buoyed by the apparent agreement within the Greek coalition. This will free up 130 billion tranche from the EU/IMF which will allow for the interest payment due in March.  Support at eh 1.3176-84 level now.

Bernanke on the Wires with Similar Dialogue to Last Week’s House Panel Posted: 07 Feb 2012 07:03 AM PST Says: Labor market has ‘improved modestly’ Senate remarks same as Feb 2nd house testimony Interest rates to stay low through 2014 Calls pace of recovery ‘frustratingly slow’ Fed expects inflation to ‘remain subdued’ Fiscal policy must be put on ‘sustainable path’ ‘Long way to go’ before job market running normally

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and JOLTs Job Openings both Higher Posted: 07 Feb 2012 07:00 AM PST IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism:     Survey: 48.6      Actual:  49.4     Prior: 47.5 JOLTs Job Openings:  Survey: 3250  Actual: 3376   Prior: 3161     Revised: 3118

USDJPY finds sellers against retracement level Posted: 07 Feb 2012 06:15 AM PST The USDJPY tested the 38.2% of the move down from the January 24th high to the low reached on February 1st. That level comes in at the 76.879 level. The high today reached 76.85 and has backed off. The next support level comes in at the trendline at the 76.65 level. Below that the 200 hour MA at the 76.55 level is the next target.  The pair was supported today on the official word that the BOJ did in fact intervene in the market (13.2 billion).  The intervention occurred on October 31st. On that day the low for the USDJPY was 75.56 and the high reached 79.52.  The price has since moved down to the lowest level since  that intervention at the 76.017 level.  BOJ Shirakawa amd Finance Minister Azumi has each stated recently that they won’t rule out any action to curb the rise including intervention.

EURUSD moves higher on Greek statement (Again) Posted: 07 Feb 2012 05:41 AM PST The market is clearly trading with short term intentions in place.  Markets are sloppy. The market moved quickly to the upside on yet another comment about a Greek bailout.  Because of the headline effect it seems that the real movers in the EURUSD market are simply waiting for the dust to all settle.  This helps contribute to the up and down action. Nevertheless the EURUSD has moved above the previous high for the day above 1.3167 and looks toward the next target at the 1.3184 area. The high from last week came in at the 1.3226 level. Other highs during the week were at 1.3217, 1.3211 and 1.3204. These will also be targets above. On the downside the 100 and 200 hour MA have converged at the 1.3130 level and this will now be support for intraday traders. Recognize the markets are sloppy and therefore deserve being patient for risk defined entries.  At those points, the market will work for you or you get out.  The best way to define risk is still technical levels. Keep stops in place and be prepared for a bumpy ride.

Canada permits send the USDCAD lower Posted: 07 Feb 2012 05:38 AM PST The Building Permits is at the highest level in 4 1/2 years after a surprising 11.1% gain (expected 1%). The USDCAD has moved lower on the news and pushed back below the 100 hour MA at the 0.9973 level. Traders should use this level to sell against.  The close from yesterday came in at the 0.9957.  This is the next level to get through on the downside.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.7.2012 Posted: 07 Feb 2012 05:33 AM PST Good Morning: In an unexpected move, the Reserve Bank of Australia left their benchmark interest rates unchanged at 4.25%.  With signs of growth in North America and Asia-the RBA opted to leave rates steady for the time being.  The RBA will monitor the growth of the global economy, and will set their interest and monetary policy accordingly. In other news-it seems that Greece is getting closer to an agreement with their creditors.  We have heard this for the past few weeks-so when we get confirmation-I will let you know.  In the meantime-European leaders are running out of patience for Greece to get their monetary policy in place. Fed Chairman Bernanke will be speaking to Congress today-after last friday’s positive jobs data-will his  tone be different?  No likely. Equity markets are lower-as are US Futures. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Canada Building Permits Surge Posted: 07 Feb 2012 05:30 AM PST Canada Building Permits:    Survey:  1.0%     Actual: 11.1%        Prior:  -3.6%     Revised:  -2.6%

Reserve Bank of Australia surprises the market. Dollar gains vs EURUSD but gains contained Posted: 07 Feb 2012 05:18 AM PST

Canada Building Permits Due at 8:30AM Posted: 07 Feb 2012 05:02 AM PST

SNB’s Jordan says “won’t tolerate” CHF breaching 1.20 against the Euro. Posted: 07 Feb 2012 03:15 AM PST SNB ready to take further measures if needed. Further escalation of Euro crisis is “main risk”. Swiss economy to cool “considerably” in 2012. SNB “more than ever” committed to defending cap. Policy has been absolutely credible to markets. Franc remains “very strong”. CHF should weaken “over time”. “Downside risks” prevail. Can’t allow Franc to appreciate further. EUR/CHF was relatively unaffected by the release.

German Industrial Production (Dec) -2.9% vs. 0.0% expected. Posted: 07 Feb 2012 03:01 AM PST

German deputy Fin. Minster says Germany and France are not trying to push Greece from the EMU. Posted: 07 Feb 2012 01:39 AM PST

EUR/USD re-tests 1.3167 Posted: 07 Feb 2012 12:55 AM PST The Euro made a run up earlier with no confirmed reason why other than reports that there was a large Asian player making large purchases. The pair found resistance at  1.3167, Sunday’s high.

PIMCO says a hard landing for China is only a “tail-risk scenario”. Posted: 07 Feb 2012 12:40 AM PST Sees China’s policy easing “less aggressive” than in 2008.

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