Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- GBPUSD surges higher. Resistance at 1.5772-85 eyed.
- USDJPY showing signs of consolidation/correction mode
- The headlines have the EURUSD trading in a choppy fashion
- Philadelphia Fed Survey Improves
- German Ministry says PSI may start Feb 22nd and end on March 9th
- Source: Bridge loan for Greece off the table
- Rumors of Greece bridge loans being off the table
- USDCHF falls below trendline and MA signaling the end of the trend (for now)
- Dutch Finance minister says large chance of a Greek selective default swap
- Philadelphia Fed Imminent at 10AM
- EURUSD tests 200 bar MA and 38.2% retracement on intraday chart
- EURUSD bounces off the 50%. Tests resistance
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.16.2012
- US Jobless Claims Move Even Lower to 348K, Housing Starts Improve Slightly, Building Permits Weaker
- Canadian International Securities Transactions and Manufacturing Sales Index both lower than forecast
| GBPUSD surges higher. Resistance at 1.5772-85 eyed. Posted: 16 Feb 2012 07:52 AM PST
The GBPUSD broke above the 100 hour and trendline support and this led to a sharp move higher in the GBPUSD (see blue line in the chart above). The move has pushed the price up through the 38.2% and toward the next key target against the 200 hour MA at the 1.5777 level. This and the 50% retracement of the move down from the Feb 8th high, should slow the upward momentum. A break above this area, should not be ignored however. Looking at the daily chart, remember the highs from November and December. The 1.5794, 1.5778. 1.5772, 1.5768 were highs. These highs capped the price for over two months. This should also slow the move back higher and/or ignite more buying on a break higher.
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| USDJPY showing signs of consolidation/correction mode Posted: 16 Feb 2012 07:18 AM PST
The USDJPY has fallen below trendline on the shorter term chart and this has the USDJPY on the defensive. The downside targets show support at the 78.71/75 area where the 100 bar MA and the 38.2% of the move higher today is found. Looking at the hourly chart the price has marched higher for the entire month, the low was reached on Feb 1 ast the 76.01 level (not shown in the chart below). The high today has reached 78.93. The last leg higher off the lows on Monday and Tuesday have trendline support line target at the 78.58 level. The 38.2% of the move up this week comes in at the 78.325 level. These also be come downside targets if the price can develop more downside momentum.
Traders looking for a correction would prefer to see the price stay below the 78.84/86 level (tight stop). A move below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute at 78.75, would target trendline on the hourly at 78.58 and then the 78.32 38.2% retracement off the hourly. |
| The headlines have the EURUSD trading in a choppy fashion Posted: 16 Feb 2012 07:02 AM PST
The EURUSD has been trading in a choppy fashion as headlines from EU/German sources dominate . The next topside target is the topside trendline on the hourly chart at the 1.3048 level and the 38.2% of the move down from the high yesterday. That level comes in at the 1.30577 level. |
| Philadelphia Fed Survey Improves Posted: 16 Feb 2012 07:02 AM PST Philadelphia Fed: Survey: 9.0 Actual: 10.2 Prior: 7.3 February 12″ vs January 12′ |
| German Ministry says PSI may start Feb 22nd and end on March 9th Posted: 16 Feb 2012 07:00 AM PST
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| Source: Bridge loan for Greece off the table Posted: 16 Feb 2012 06:58 AM PST These comments come from reports after the conference call yesterday with Economic Finance Ministers This means that Greece will have to come with the neccesary austerity cuts and agreements and that the EU/IMF must all agree they are worthy of the bailout funds. |
| Rumors of Greece bridge loans being off the table Posted: 16 Feb 2012 06:58 AM PST Rumors of Greece bridge loans being off the table |
| USDCHF falls below trendline and MA signaling the end of the trend (for now) Posted: 16 Feb 2012 06:48 AM PST
The USDCHF fell below trendline and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and this has prompted some profit taking selling in the USDCHF. The trend is still up but there could be additional selling that could take the price to 0.9257 and then a test of the 38.2% of the move up from yesterday’s low at the 0.92433 level. |
| Dutch Finance minister says large chance of a Greek selective default swap Posted: 16 Feb 2012 06:38 AM PST
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| Philadelphia Fed Imminent at 10AM Posted: 16 Feb 2012 06:22 AM PST
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| EURUSD tests 200 bar MA and 38.2% retracement on intraday chart Posted: 16 Feb 2012 06:17 AM PST
As per the prior post, the 1.3020 area is key resistance for the pair today (on an intraday basis). The EURUSD has moved up to test this level on a report thar a Euro bond swap may be done by Monday. This is unconfirmed but forced the market price higher. Now a Dutch Finance Minister is on the news wires saying there is no agreement on a 2nd program for Greece. So news headlines has the market on edge. The bounce off the 50% of the 2012 range stopped the decline today. The move above the trendline (in chart above) and the 100 bar MA (blue line), gave shorts cause for pause. Now it is up to the profit takers and those who are still inclined to sell the EURUSD. A move above the key intraday resistance at 1.3020 is a vote for the buyers. A move below the 100 bar MA (blue line at 1.3002) and the trendline (at 1.2997 curently) below, is a vote for the sellers. |
| EURUSD bounces off the 50%. Tests resistance Posted: 16 Feb 2012 05:40 AM PST
The EURUSD found support/profit taking buyers in the early NY session, off the 50% retracement of the move up from the 2012 lows. Better US data has led to a flight into risk and as a result the EURUSD has bounced higher. The pair is looking toward the next resistance target at the 1.3012 level (shallow trendline in the chart below). Above level is the more important 38.2% of the move down from late Wednesday’s high. That level comes in at the 1.30206 level. The 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is also at that level currently. As a result, the level if tested, would likely solicit good sellers on a test. The move off the key support and move through the topside channel in the chart below will likely give sellers a reason to buy dips and rest. I will watch 1.2987-89 for support buyers on a dip
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| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.16.2012 Posted: 16 Feb 2012 05:35 AM PST
Oh- the Greek sage: With uncertainty being the main theme-the euro lost steam-and the EUR/USD fell below 1.30. In other news-Moody’s has commented that they will review and may cut 17 global and 114 European financial companies as the debt crisis in the euro zone continues to spread. Oil is still over $101/bbl-as the Iranian situation continues to heat up. World equity markets and US Futures are lower today. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK |
| US Jobless Claims Move Even Lower to 348K, Housing Starts Improve Slightly, Building Permits Weaker Posted: 16 Feb 2012 05:32 AM PST USD/JPY Trading at session highs on the news.
Jobless Claims: Survey: 365K Actual: 348K Prior: 358K Revised: 361K Continuing Claims: Survey: 3490K Actual: 3426K Prior: 3515K Revised: 3526K Producer Price Index (MoM): Survey: 0.4% Actual: 0.1% Prior: -0.1% PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM): Survey: 0.2% Actual: 0.4% Prior: 0.3% Producer Price Index (YoY): Survey: 4.1% Actual: 4.1% Prior: 4.8% PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY): Survey: 2.7% Actual: 3.0% Prior: 3.0% Housing Starts: Survey: 675K Actual: 699K Prior: 657K Revised: 689K Housing Starts (MoM)%: Survey: 2.7% Actual: 1.5% Prior: -4.1% Revised: -1.9% Building Permits: Survey: 680K Actual: 676K Prior: 679K Revised: 671K Building Permits (MoM)%: Survey: 1.3% Actual: 0.7% Prior: -0.1% Revised: -1.3% |
| Posted: 16 Feb 2012 05:30 AM PST International Securities Transactions
Manufacturing Sales Index (MoM)
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