Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

GBPUSD liquidates lower

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 07:39 AM PST

Stops were triggered below the 1.5840 level and the 100 hour MA did not even hold the decline. Longs are caught in the pair with EURGBP helping to keep the pressure on the GBP as it continues to move higher. Resistance in the GBPUSD is now at the 100 hour MA at the 1.58245 level.

A Forex Quick look at the EURUSD

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 07:35 AM PST

GBPUSD tests trend line/Fibonacci support

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 07:26 AM PST

The GBPUSD is down testing key support against the 61.8% of the move up from yesterday and trendline support (on the hourly chart above).  The market should find support against the level on the test.  The catalyst for the decline is actually a rise in the EURGBP. The EURGBP has been moving higher today after moving above the 200 hour MA yesterday. Today, the price held support and moved higher off that level.

Forex Basics Webinar TODAY 4:00PM: Understanding Moving Averages

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 07:11 AM PST

Forex Basics Webinar TODAY 4:00PM: Understanding Moving Averages with Shawn Powell and Jason Galano from FXDD. Its free to attend and everyone can benefit from this class. Register now

EURUSD tests channel support at 1.3249

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 06:26 AM PST

The EURUSD is testnng support at the 1.3249 level.  A move below this level opens the door for a test of the low from yesterday afternoon at the 1.3231. Other targets are the 38.2% of the move up at the 1.3212 level.

The range for the EURUSD is only 48 pips today. I would expect that the range will be extended at some point. The low for the day is 1.3240.  The high is 1.32876.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.8.2012

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 05:57 AM PST

Good Morning:

The Greek saga continues-as the markets await Greek prime Minister Papademos is again set to meet in Athens to discuss and hopefully come to an agreement over the debt crisis in his country.  The scheduled meeting has been delayed-which is hardly a surprise to anyone

In US political news-Rick Santorum, Former US Senator of Pennslyvania  swept all 3 Republican primary contests last night.  This has certainly made the race a different animal.. Life will be difficult for Newt Gingrich now-and does this show that Mitt Romney does not have the support of the American Mid West.  I am sure that President Obama was very happy with the results-as this shows an even further divided Republican party-and that will be very helpful for the re election of the incumbent President.

World equity markets and US Futures are higher.

Oil is trading just under $100/bar.

ECB sources: Final decision on Greek debt likely next week

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 05:42 AM PST

The ECB is reported to have come to an agreement in principle

USDJPY finds sellers at the 100 day MA

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 05:41 AM PST

The USDJPY moved higher last night. Contributing to the rise was a report that the Current Account surplus came in lower than expectations. This helped weaken the Yen and move the USDJPY higher. However, the pair found willing sellers on the run up against the key 100 day MA.That level came in at the 77.15 level. The high came in at 77.179 (see blue line in the chart above).

Selling against the key technical level forced the pair back lower where it found support against the 38.2% of the move up from last weeks low. That level came in at 76.74. The low came in at 75.702.  The price is now trading near the underside of the channel trendline (see chart below) at the 76.88 level. A move above this level should lead to more buying support for the pair. However, I would expect that the sellers against the key 100 day MA  (at 77.15) will keep a lid on rallies for the time being at least.

GBPUSD tested key resistance overnight

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 05:16 AM PST

The GBPUSD moved up to key topside resistance overnight against the 50% retracement and the 200 day MA at the 1.5924 and 1.5937 levels respectively.   The inability to extend higher led to a quick sell off during the London morning sesssion that took the price from the high at 1.5927 to the low at 1.5868. The 38.2% of the move up from yesterday’s low came in at 1.5873. When the price stalled at the level, the market started to form a base against the level. It currently trades in the middle of the range.

Trader’s who are long will likely take solace that the 38.2% found support buyers. However, that resistance against the 50% and the 200 day MA will be a big hurdle to overcome.  Hence, I would look for any rallies toward the 1.5924-37 area to find intraday sellers. A break of the 38.2% would likely see more selling.

Canada Housing Starts Improve

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 05:14 AM PST

Canada Housing Starts:   Survey:  194.0K   Actual: 197.9K  Prior: 200.2K   Revised:  199.9K

USD/CAD moves a touch lower on the news.

Greece hope keeps the EURUSD up. USDJPY tests 100 day MA

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 05:10 AM PST

The overnight review

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 05:08 AM PST

EU leaders “hoped” for a concrete conclusion to Greek political leaders meeting on Wednesday (that is today).
There was comment out of EFSF that they will probably play significant role in PSI and Greek programme.  The
Bundesbank said that German exposure with haircuts is not critical.  An economic “think Tank” said that German taxpayers may face a 25 bln Euro hit  on Greek sovereign debt. Finally out of Greece there was a report that budget revenues were found lagging by a considerable 1 billion Euros in the 1st month.  According to the report revenues posted a 7% decline compared with January 2011. The budget had targetted a 8.9% annual increase.  The reported also said that VAT receipts posted an 18.7% decline in January compared to a year ago.  The recession is not getting better but worse and more cuts on the way. In other news out of Europe, Germany’s Trade Balance worsened to 14.1 B surplus from 14.9B last month, but was better than expectations (13.9 B).  However, both exports and imports showed declines (-4.3% and -3.9% respectively).  This suggests a weaker German economy.   Japan’s Current Account surplus came in weaker at 63T and this helped to weaken the JPY (increase the USDJPY) but that gains has not been sustained and the pair is opening the NY sesssion near yesterday’s closing level.  The USDJPY reached the 100 day MA on the  move higher (at 77.145. HIgh reached 77.17) but was not able to sustain any momentum above this key technical level.  Swiss employment came in as expected at 3.1%. The EURCHF has gotten a boost from chatter from SNB’s Jordan yesterday that they remain committed to maintaining support at the 1.2000 floor.  In economic data today, US Mortgage Applications already came out and showed at 7.5% increase from the previous week. Canada has Housing Starts for January due out at 8:15 AM. The expectations is for a decline to 194.0k from 199.9k last month.  Yesterday, Building Permits rose by a surprising 11.1%.. NZD Unemployment comes out at 4:45 PM today w/ a gain of 0.4%. At 8:30 PM China CPI is due with 4% vs 4.1% YoY expected.

Canada Housing Starts Data Due at 8:15AM

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 04:40 AM PST

Irish PM Kenny says Ireland is close to a budget deficit.

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 02:57 AM PST

Adds that austerity alone will not close the deficit.

Risk Sentiment Higher

Posted: 08 Feb 2012 01:33 AM PST

Equities are up a touch with Dow futures +40; Euro is trading off session highs. In the case of the Euro vs. the JPY, the pair has been trading in a tight range for most of the night, unable to break above the 102.42 high.

If we can break through hourly resistance we look to the daily chart for the next topside target which comes in at 102.569.
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