Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• $GBPUSD moves to test support at 1.6158 level
• December 31st 2009 Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• $USDCAD in between the “goal posts” as defined by the 100 and 200 hour moving averages
• $USDJPY surges higher off the 92.32 support but runs into double top resistance perhaps?
• Initial Jobless Claims comes in at 432K. Continuing Claims have fallen to 4982K
• Trading closes today at 2:00 PM NYT for FXDD
• US Weekly Jobless Claims due out at 8:30 AM
• GBPUSD rally continues today. Boosted by better data, continued covering. Resistance tested at 1.6232.
• $EURUSD boosted overnight and holding support. So watch support for trading clues.
• December 31st 2009 NY Opening Forex Commentary
• UK Nationwide HPI m/m
• 12-31 Economic Calendar
• December 30th 2009 Evening Forex Report is available for viewing
• $EURUSD has intraday support at 1.4327/35
• December 30th 2009 Midday Forex Commentary is available for viewing

$GBPUSD moves to test support at 1.6158 level Posted: 31 Dec 2009 05:39 AM PST The downside target of 1.6158 is approaching (see prior post).  This level corresponds with the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. It also is support off the daily chart going back to the August/September time period.  Look for some profit taking buying against the level.  A break would target 1.6114 level where the 200 bar MA on the same 5 minute chart is found. The market in general is trading in a technical fashion today with key levels tending to hold resistance and support.  The warning, however, is we are beginning to approach the end of the year where some last minute position squaring is likely to take place.   Be aware that this, along with less liquidity, can lead to some unusual moves.  So be aware. Be prepared.

December 31st 2009 Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 31 Dec 2009 05:24 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

$USDCAD in between the “goal posts” as defined by the 100 and 200 hour moving averages Posted: 31 Dec 2009 04:59 AM PST The USDCAD is sitting in between the 100 and 200 hour MAs.  We define this condition at FXDD as being in between the “goal posts” .    When this condition exists the market is thought to be in a period of transition as it decides if the next move is higher or lower.  Watch the price action.  Traders can buy dips against the 100 hour with selling below. Alternatively, they can sell against the higher 200 hour MA with buying on moves above.  Look for momentum on the breaks.  The current 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.0469.  The current 200 hour MA comes in at the 1.0531.

$USDJPY surges higher off the 92.32 support but runs into double top resistance perhaps? Posted: 31 Dec 2009 04:38 AM PST The USDJPY surged higher off the better Employment data this morning. Earlier the price held our support level at the 92.32 level where the 100 bar MA was also located.   The price is up testing the high from yesterday at the 92.76 level and this high provides a low risk trading opportunity for range trading traders.  Look for sellers with stops above. A break targets the 93.12 level (50% of the move down from the April high to the low). Another longer term upside target coming more into focus is the 200 day MA (green line in the daily chart below) at the 93.67 level).

Initial Jobless Claims comes in at 432K. Continuing Claims have fallen to 4982K Posted: 31 Dec 2009 04:25 AM PST Much better than expectations.  However, the holiday season can influence the numbers as offices close for the holiday and if the seasonal changes don’t account for it fully, it can be reversed going forward in the weeks ahead. Nevertheless, it is what it is, and the dollar is finding a little bid off the number.  The EURUSD is down testing the 200 bar MA support at the 1.4378. Next support at 1.4362 which was the floor from earlier today. Look for sellers on rallies back toward the 100 bar MA (blue line below).  That level comes in at the 1.4400 area currently.

Trading closes today at 2:00 PM NYT for FXDD Posted: 31 Dec 2009 04:23 AM PST In observance of the New Year holiday, FXDD will close at 2:00 PM today and also be closed tomorrow.  We wish all our valued customers a Happy, Healthy, Prosperous and Peaceful New Year.

US Weekly Jobless Claims due out at 8:30 AM Posted: 31 Dec 2009 04:20 AM PST The weekly Unemploymnet Claims are due out at 8:30 AM. The expectation is for a small rise to 460K from 452K last week. The Continuing Claims are expected to show a slight rise to 5100K from 5076K last week.  Both measures have been trending down as the employment situation improves slowly but surely in the USA.

GBPUSD rally continues today. Boosted by better data, continued covering. Resistance tested at 1.6232. Posted: 31 Dec 2009 04:02 AM PST The GBPUSD was supported this morning by better Home Price data this morning.  The short squeeze is also continuing to boost the price as traders square up positions before the New Year.  The price move higher is now testing the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the high in November at the 1.6876 level and the low reached just yesterday at the 1.5832 level. The level comes in at the 1.6231 level.  Look for profit taking sellers at the level.  However, be careful of a  break above given the breadth of the rally that has seen level after level broken. On the downside, support today comes in at the 1.6185 and 1.6158 today.

$EURUSD boosted overnight and holding support. So watch support for trading clues. Posted: 31 Dec 2009 03:39 AM PST The EURUSD has been testing the 100 bar moving average since yesterday afternoon and in early NY trade, the pattern has continued.  The 100 bar moving average comes in at the 1.4400 level currently.  The price tested the MA on no fewer than six occasions.  The trade for the day is if the price stays above the MA, bullish. If it falls below bearish, and look for momentum on the break with a test of the 200 bar moving average the next target (currently at the 1.4374 level) .  Use a 10 or so pip stop as the market should move lower, but if it does not, protect yourself with a stop.

December 31st 2009 NY Opening Forex Commentary Posted: 31 Dec 2009 03:19 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

UK Nationwide HPI m/m Posted: 30 Dec 2009 10:01 PM PST The Nationwide HPI beat estimates for December coming in slightly stronger than expected.  The GBP and the EUR made strong moves to the upside against the USD coming in to the release, but the GBP has given back 30% of the move since the reading. The details of the release are as follows: (MoM) - Survey: 0.3%   Actual: 0.4%   Prior: 0.5% (YoY) - Survey: 5.6%   Actual: 5.9%   Prior: 2.7%

12-31 Economic Calendar Posted: 30 Dec 2009 09:16 PM PST

December 30th 2009 Evening Forex Report is available for viewing Posted: 30 Dec 2009 11:28 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

$EURUSD has intraday support at 1.4327/35 Posted: 30 Dec 2009 09:22 AM PST This was a floor from earlier today. The 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart should provide additional support for the pair.  They come in at the 1.4327 level.  As long as the price can remain above these moving averages, the bias is up intraday. Overall, the EURUSD has had a quiet day. The pair is still down from yesterdays closing level at the 1.4352 level.  The two shorter term moving averages are converged and moving sideways now.  On the hourly chart the price has closed below the 100 hour MA for most of the trading day (100 hour MA comes in at the 1.4363 level).   This will be an upside target price that the EURUSD will have to break to move to higher levels.

December 30th 2009 Midday Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 30 Dec 2009 08:23 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• GBPUSD moves higher. Tests target resistance at 1.5920 area.
• Chicago PMI is much better than expectations. Highest level since January 2006.
• A Tale of Two Currencies. EURUSD heading down+GBPUSD going up= EURGBP leading the way
• December 30th 2009 FXDD Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• GBPUSD moves back above 1.5881 level
• USDJPY reaches 92.32 target level. Now what?
• GBPUSD watching 1.5881 level this morning. Key level yesterday, today and in October 2009
• December 30th 2009 FXDD Pre-Market Commentary is available for viewing
• KOF Economic Barometer
• Eurozone M3 Money Supply & Private Loans
• 12-30 Economic Calendar
• Japan’s Manufacturing PMI (USD/JPY)
• December 29th 2009 Evening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• USDCHF getting ready to make another break? Watch the 1.0389 level.
• GBPUSD tests resistance on retracement

GBPUSD moves higher. Tests target resistance at 1.5920 area. Posted: 30 Dec 2009 05:53 AM PST Despite the better than expected data from the Chicago PMI, the GBPUSD has moved higher (HMMMM).  The price is testing the resistance target area at the 1.5920/31 level which was the low price from last week (See prior post).  The level is also near the 38.2% retracement of the move down from yesterdays high price (at 1.5922).  I would expect profit taking selling against this level, however, the action is a bit confusing given the stronger data today.  The EURGBP seems to remain in control of the pair as it has moved down to test the support at 0.8975. If the support in the EURGBP holds, the GBPUSD may find a top.  If not, look for continued move higher as the EURGBP wags the dogs tail today.

Chicago PMI is much better than expectations. Highest level since January 2006. Posted: 30 Dec 2009 05:42 AM PST Chicago PMI much better than expectations rising to 60.0 from 56.1 last month. This is much better than expectations and the highest reading since January 2006. The Employment component rose above the 50 level which is an indication that employment is growing. The stronger reading should lead to a higher dollar overall as the Fed tightening becomes closer to a certainty at some point. Prices paid          54.9  vs 52.6 last month Production           65.8  vs 57.6 last month New orders           63.5  vs 62.8 last month Order backlogs       53.0  vs 46.5 last month Inventories          39.4  vs 34.9 last month Employment           51.2  vs 41.9 last month Supplier deliveries  56.2  vs 57.4 last month

A Tale of Two Currencies. EURUSD heading down+GBPUSD going up= EURGBP leading the way Posted: 30 Dec 2009 05:36 AM PST As the market prepares for the Chicago PMI data - expectation of 55. 1 - the EURUSD is going one way, while the GBPUSD is going the other.  The EURUSD is testing the 1.4303 support level. Meanwhile the GBPUSD is back above the 1.5900 level after holding support at the 1.5872-86 area.  This action is manifesting itself in liquidation in the EURGBP which has fallen sharply over the last few hours. Looking at the chart the pair has fallen back below the 100 hour MA at the 0.8996 level and looks toward the 38.2% retracement support at the 0.8977 level.  The price was also able to break through trendline suppport.  The move in the EURGBP makes trading the dollar a bit tricky against the EURUSD and the GBPUSD as they are moving in seemingly opposite directions against the US dollar.  So be aware that it is more a cross trade, then a dollar trade today.  SO keep an eye on the EURGBP for some of the trading clues.

December 30th 2009 FXDD Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 30 Dec 2009 05:11 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

GBPUSD moves back above 1.5881 level Posted: 30 Dec 2009 04:32 AM PST As per prior post (click here), the 1.5881 level is a key level today. The price just pushed back above the level and we should now expect to see buyers on dips back toward the level.  In the process the price moved above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.5877 level currently.  This also should provide support for the pair.  The high for the day reached 1.5915 and this along with the other resistance at 1.5820/31 are the next target levels as long as the price is able to hold the 1.5977 price area. We will see what upside momentum can be established.

USDJPY reaches 92.32 target level. Now what? Posted: 30 Dec 2009 04:17 AM PST The USDJPY has reached the 92.32 target outlined in our video commentary and written commentary over the last 24 hours (see prior post from yesterday by clicking here).   I would expect some profit taking selling against the level as the move higher is still a grind. However, the upside momentum should remain in tact as long as the 91.76/86 level can hold below.  The longer term upside target is the 93.12 level which is the 50% retracement of the move down from the April 6th high price of 101.43 to the November low price of 84.80. There should also be some selling above against the 92.52 level which was the high price on September 21st. On the downside continue to watch the 91.86 and 91.72 levels for support.  The 91.86 level was the high price over the last week or so of trading and 91.72 was a low price from July 2009 (old “remembered price” - see daily chart above).  If the price can stay above these levels, we should be ok.

GBPUSD watching 1.5881 level this morning. Key level yesterday, today and in October 2009 Posted: 30 Dec 2009 03:52 AM PST The GBPUSD found support against the 1.5881 level earlier this today until breaking it’s way to the low for the day at the 1.5832 level. The level will be a level to watch today. If you listened to our commentary yesterday and followed our posts on http://forex.fxdd.com we talked about this level as being a past “remembered”  price the last time the GBPUSD was down at these levels in October 2009.  Looking at the chart below of the period from October 2009 before the surge higher, the 1.5881 level was first a spike high price, then became a springboard level for the surge higher.  Often the market will look back in time and find these levels and make them important again in the present.  That is what it has done over the last 18 or so trading hours.   Yesterday the price moved through this level as liquidation selling was taking place. However, the next hour, the price correction moved back above this level and the price became a floor level again.  Finally, the level gave way to the downside during the London session today.    For today, the level becomes a key price level to watch. I would look for the market to use it as resistance this morning. If the price can remain below the level, we should see a further probe back toward the low support (support at  1.5824/32).  A move  back above 1.5881, should lead to further upside corrective momentum, with a test of the 1.5920/31 area an upside target.

December 30th 2009 FXDD Pre-Market Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 30 Dec 2009 03:17 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

KOF Economic Barometer Posted: 30 Dec 2009 02:08 AM PST KOF Economic Barometer came in at 1.68, weaker than the 1.73 forecasted, but stronger than the prior reading of 1.62. No market reaction to this figure, which indicates a slower economic recovery for Switzerland. The lack of market reaction is to be attributed to sluggish trading as we are in the midst of a holiday week. Usd/Chf currently trades at 1.0368 and Eur/Chf at 1.4880.

Eurozone M3 Money Supply & Private Loans Posted: 29 Dec 2009 11:59 PM PST Eurozone M3 Money Supply y/y came in at -0.2%, weaker than the 0.4% forecasted and prior reading of 0.3%. Private Loans y/y came in at -0.7%, stronger than the -0.8% anticipated. Mixed numbers for the Euro as the market reaction would indicate. Eur/Usd currently trading at 1.4345.

12-30 Economic Calendar Posted: 29 Dec 2009 07:47 PM PST

Japan’s Manufacturing PMI (USD/JPY) Posted: 29 Dec 2009 02:18 PM PST Japan’s Nomura Manufacturing PMI indicator rose in December to 53.8 from 52.3 the prior month continuing the expansionary readings. The market had no reaction to this release as the year-end lull continues. The USD/JPY pair has continued to trade higher into the calendar year-end as some profit taking on long Yen positions and yield increases in the US have made USD funding less attractive. The channel we’ve been observing has continued to hold as the appreciation continues in an orderly fashion.

December 29th 2009 Evening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 29 Dec 2009 12:20 PM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

USDCHF getting ready to make another break? Watch the 1.0389 level. Posted: 29 Dec 2009 10:42 AM PST The 1.0389 level is the 100 hour MA.  The pair has moved up to test this moving average but has so far found sellers against the level.  A break back above the level would increase the bullish bias for the pair and should lead to further upside potential.  Today, the price continued it’s corrective move lower and, in the process,  fell below the 100 day moving average at the 1.0320 level.  The price moved above this key moving average on December 15th on it’s way to the December high price of 1.0507.  However, the last 4 days has seen a correction back down that saw the pair correct 38.2% of the last move higher at the 1.0280 level (low today reached 1.0279).  The healthy bounce off this Fibonacci retracement level and subsequent move back above the 100 day moving average is a bullish move.  As a result, the move above the 100 hour moving average would solidify the bullish bias for  the pair and should lead to further gains higher.  Look for momentum higher on a break.

GBPUSD tests resistance on retracement Posted: 29 Dec 2009 09:26 AM PST The GBPUSD is back up testing the weeks low price at 1.5931 and the low from last week at 1.5920.  If this level can hold, we should see a wander back down as the pairs move lower was a harsh move down.  Look for support at the 1.5881 level.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• AUDUSD tests Fibonacci Resistance at 0.8990
• December 29th 2009 Morning Forex Report is available for viewing
• S & P/Case Schiller comes in at -7.28%.
• Case Schiller Home Price Index due at 9:00 AM
• EURUSD trends higher today. Support comes in at 1.4413/18.
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.29.2009
• $USDJPY continues to coil in a narrow range. Is a move coming?
• GBPUSDs rise and fall. What lies ahead for the pound today?
• December 29 2009 Pre-market Forex Report is available for viewing
• JP Morgan’s London Headquarters in Doubt
• Gbp/Usd trading near 200 day M/A
• French GDP
• UBS Consumption Indicator
• 12-22 Economic Calendar
• December 28th 2009 Evening Forex Commentary is available for viewing

AUDUSD tests Fibonacci Resistance at 0.8990 Posted: 29 Dec 2009 05:24 AM PST The AUDUSD moved sharply higher today after breaking back above the 100 day moving average earlier.  The price is now testing the 38.2% retracement level of the corrective move lower from the November high price of 0.9405 to the low last week at the 0.8733 level. That level comes in at 0.8990.  The price is currently at this key level.  Look for profit taking sellers against the level. However, a move above will likely lead to a quick cover.   Below look for  support at the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. That level comes in at the 0.8946 level currently (and moving higher - so watch this moving average line for directional clues).  Given the trend move higher today and the move back above the 100 day MA, I would expect happy buyers against this trendline support today.

December 29th 2009 Morning Forex Report is available for viewing Posted: 29 Dec 2009 05:07 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

S & P/Case Schiller comes in at -7.28%. Posted: 29 Dec 2009 05:06 AM PST The S&P Case Schiller Home Price index came in at -7.28% for the YoY which is a bit weaker than expectations but should not be a big influence.  The dollar is a bit lower but only a smidge.

Case Schiller Home Price Index due at 9:00 AM Posted: 29 Dec 2009 04:53 AM PST The expectation is for a rise to 147.0 from 146.51 last month.  This would put the YoY composite at -7.2% vs a -9.36% last month.

EURUSD trends higher today. Support comes in at 1.4413/18. Posted: 29 Dec 2009 04:35 AM PST The EURUSD has come off the high for the day at the 1.4458 in early NY trade. The support comes in at the 1.4413/18 level this morning.  The 38.2% retracement of the days range, the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and the low correction floor come in at that area.  A break would be a disappointment for the days bulls who have seen the pair trend higher today after breaking above the 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 5 minute chart in early London trading.  Look for support against these intraday technical levels.  A break below will likely discourage and lead to some profit taking. On the topside, the next exit target on the bullish highway comes in at the 1.4480 level.  This is the low from October (see chart above).

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.29.2009 Posted: 29 Dec 2009 04:17 AM PST Good Morning: The USD dropped against the higher yielding currencies-as signs that the global economic recovery is gaining traction continues. World wide equity markets rose, and US Futures are higher at this time.  Mining companies rose, while Copper hit a 15 month high.  Speculation that investors aniticipate larger economic growth in 2010 is helping the rally continue. Oil:$78.68                                                     Gold:$1108.20   TODAY’S RELEASES TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 9:00A.M.. S&P CASESHILLER HOME PRICE IND. OCT. 146.8O 146.5I 9:00A.M.. S&P/CS COMPOSITE-20YoY OCT. -7.20% -9.36% 10:00A.M. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DEC. 53.O 49.5O HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

$USDJPY continues to coil in a narrow range. Is a move coming? Posted: 29 Dec 2009 04:10 AM PST The USDJPY is continuing to coil and consolidate.  The non-trending nature of the market action tends to transition to a trend like move.  As a result, we are on alert for a break out.  On the topside, the 91.76/86 area has been a ceiling over the last 5 trading days.  Back in July the low reached 91.72 (see daily chart below). The market is using the area as a level to pause the move higher which has seen the price move from a low of 84.80 on November 27th to the high of 91.86 reached last week.  A move above this level would next target the 92.32 level which is the high from October 2009.  93.12 would be another upside target level for the pair (50% retracement of the move down from the April high to the November low).  On the downside, the floor is still being provided by the 100 hour moving average (see blue line in the 1st chart above).  Although the price dipped below this line for the first time since December 18th today, no momentum could be established and the price quickly reversed. The moving average currrently comes in at the 91.58 level.   On a break back below this level, I would expect sellers, but also look for momentum on the break. IF not, get out as the market is telling you it is not ready for a move.  Further support comes in at 91.12/15 and at the 90.79 level (100 DAY moving average). Keep options open up or down, but know that the longer a market non-trends, the better chance for a trend like move.  SO be on alert for a move up or down.

GBPUSDs rise and fall. What lies ahead for the pound today? Posted: 29 Dec 2009 03:42 AM PST The GBPUSD moved above the 200 day MA at the 1.6040 level today, reached a high of 1.6067 and reversed.  There was a report that JP Morgan was scraping a plan to build a new European headquarter in London citing the unfairness of the 50% tax on bonuses above 25,000 pounds.  London’s economy is largely driven by the financial district.   The fleeing not only by large banks like JP Morgan but also hedge fund managers to more favorable tax havens is a real concern.  As a result, the GBPUSD fell back down, falling back through the 200 day MA and continuing the fall until hitting the 100 hour moving average at the 1.5980 level (low reached 1.5980).  This level will remain as support for the morning trade and keeps a positive bias for the pair on a interemediate term basis.  From the shorter term intraday chart, however, the price bias is down.  Watch the 1.6007/15 level where the 200 and 100 bar MAs are located on the 5 minute chart to provide upside resistance early this morning (green and blue line in the chart below).  A move above these levels would not be welcomed by the early bears today. Look for sellers on rallies, but keep in mind the bounce off the 100 hour moving average gives the dip buyers a reason to be encouraged.    Sell or buy at the extremes given a directional trader bias, but watch for stops on breaks of the key levels.

December 29 2009 Pre-market Forex Report is available for viewing Posted: 29 Dec 2009 03:16 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

JP Morgan’s London Headquarters in Doubt Posted: 29 Dec 2009 02:26 AM PST J.P. Morgan may scrap plans for a new European headquarters in London.  In a telephone conversation with UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling,  JP’s CEO Jamie Dimon cited the unfairness of  the UK’s 50% tax on banker bonuses greater than 25,000 pounds as the chief reason for the possible change of plans. Dimon feels the tax would unfairly penalize the US bank and stressed that JP Morgan paid British taxes and did not receive a UK taxpayer bailout, thus should not be subject to extra taxation. As this news hit the marketplace Gbp has sold off quite a bit.  Gbp/Usd is 70 points off session highs, trading at 1.5995 and Eur/Gbp is at its session high of .9018.

Gbp/Usd trading near 200 day M/A Posted: 28 Dec 2009 11:11 PM PST Gbp/Usd is trading just above its 200 day M/A of 1.6040. Since breaking below on Dec. 22 the pair has failed to close above the 200 day. If the pair can break and close above this level look for a further move up to 1.6224 (38.2% Fibo). If it closes below a move back down to recent low of 1.5918 is likely.

French GDP Posted: 28 Dec 2009 10:59 PM PST Third quarter GDP out of France had no effect on the market as it came in as expected at 0.3% (QoQ) and -2.3% (YoY). Currently, the EUR is trading at 1.4416 against the USD.

UBS Consumption Indicator Posted: 28 Dec 2009 10:00 PM PST The UBS Consumption Indicator came in at 1.28, stronger than the .87 prior reading. There were no estimates for this figure. This should be positive news for the CHF. Usd/Chf is trading near the bottom of a 20 point trading range, currently at 1.0345. Eur/Chf currently trades at 1.4880. Neither pair has shown much reaction to the Consumption Indicator.

12-22 Economic Calendar Posted: 28 Dec 2009 07:24 PM PST

December 28th 2009 Evening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 28 Dec 2009 12:20 PM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• GBPUSD tests 100 hour MA resistance at the 1.0595 level
• December 28th 2009 Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• USDCHF tests key 100 day MA at the 1.0325 level
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.28.2009
• Watching the USDJPY 100 hour MA today at 91.42
• EURUSD moves above the 200 hour for 1st time since the 1.5030 level. Tests Resistance at 1.4411-18
• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity at 10:30. Semi Holiday
• Japan’s November Economic Releases

GBPUSD tests 100 hour MA resistance at the 1.0595 level Posted: 28 Dec 2009 05:27 AM PST The GBPUSD has been testing key 100 hour moving average resistance currently at the 1.5995 level.  A move above the level turns the intermediate bias for the GBPUSD bullish and should look to test higher levels for the pair.   The intermediate target level for the pair would be the 1.6107 level which corresponds with both the 200 hour MA (green line) and the 38.2% retracement at the 1.6107 level.  Interim resistance will likely come in at the 1.6021 level where the high from last Friday is found and 1.6030 where the 200 day moving average is found.  The price has trended lower since December 17th when it last moved below the key 100 hour moving average at the 1.6276 level. The low reached on trend  move lower took the pair down to 1.5920. In the process the key 1.6158 level was breached along with the 200 day moving average (at 1.6030 today). These two levels will be watched closely. As long as the price remains below the 1.5995 level, the bias is bearish with 1.5920 lows from last week key support. However, if we get a close above on the hourly chart, we should see a further upside push for the pair today.

December 28th 2009 Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 28 Dec 2009 05:14 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

USDCHF tests key 100 day MA at the 1.0325 level Posted: 28 Dec 2009 04:20 AM PST Watch this level. Last Thursday, this key moving average was tested.  Today the same thing.  A break should lead to a move lower for the pair.  Until then look for dip buyers against the level. A move below targets 1.0298 next where the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 3rd low comes  in.   The level is also near highs and lows from Dec 9th, 10th and 14th (see 1,2,3 in chart above). On the topside today look for resistance at the 1.0359 (low from Wedsnesday) and 1.0384 where trendline resistance comes in today.  The 100 and 200 hour moving averages are both at the 1.0418.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.28.2009 Posted: 28 Dec 2009 04:19 AM PST Good Morning: The UK is closed today fro Boxing Day.  The USD picked up against the JPY, as speculation mounts that US corporations may start bringing back earning from overseas operations.  The JPY softened as a Japanese government report showed that manufacturing in Japan rose to the highest level in 6 months, thus dampening the demand for JPY as a safe haven. A report this  morning from China that confirms that their economy grew faster than estimated in 2009, led stocks higher in Asia and Europe.  US Futures are also higher at this time. Oil rose-demand always jumps with the first hint of weather (last weeks storms in the Mid West and East Coast were the first of this years winter season) Oil:$78.41                       Gold:$1113.20 HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Watching the USDJPY 100 hour MA today at 91.42 Posted: 28 Dec 2009 03:58 AM PST The 100 hour moving average comes in today at the 91.42 level. The price has been able to stay above this key intraday MA since December 18th.  On Friday, the price tested the level and bounced (at 91.12 area).  This raises the importance of the supportmoving average line today ( blue line in the chart above).  A break of the moving average line should lead to further selling pressure with a move to test low levels from last week at the 91.12 area.  Below that level targets 90.62 where the 200 hour MA is found.  The price tested this moving average also on the 18th of December (green line in the chart above), but this support level held and the price bounced sharply higher. On the topside watch the 91.72 level closely. This was the low price from July 2009.  Today the high reaced 91.76.  I would expect sellers against this level today as the USDJPY take a breather from it’s month long move higher which saw the price move from a low of 84.80 to the double high last week of 91.86.

EURUSD moves above the 200 hour for 1st time since the 1.5030 level. Tests Resistance at 1.4411-18 Posted: 28 Dec 2009 03:44 AM PST The EURUSD racheted higher today with the price moving above the 200 hour MA (currently at 1.4386 level - bullish bias).  However, the price has run into resistance at the 1.4411 level and above that the high from last week at the 1.4418 level (from Friday).  Look for some sellers against these levels with buying interest on breaks above the price level.  The move above the 200 hour MA today is the first time the price has been able to close above the key MA since December 4th when the price dipped below at the 1.5030 level (low reached 1.4217 last Tuesday).  Look for buyers on dips against this moving average today (green line in the chart above at 1.4387 currently).  A break below will likely signal a corrective high is in place for now, and should see the price dip back toward the 100 hour MA level which currently comes in at the 1.4319  price.  A break above the 1.4418 level has addditional resistance at the 1.4431 level and above that the 1.4480 level which corresponds with the low from October this year.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity at 10:30. Semi Holiday Posted: 28 Dec 2009 03:19 AM PST At 10:30 AM a regional manufacturing data out of Dallas will be released. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity will come out today with the expectation of +2.0% for the month.  Last month the measure rose by 0.3% which was the first gains since October 2007.  Canada and the UK are off today in observance of Boxing Day.  This week will be another shortened week in observance of the New Year Day holiday.  FXDD will have a holiday shortened day on December 31st (closing at 2:00 PM) in addition to be closed on Friday.  The economic releases/events will be highlighted by the following: Tuesday: German Prelim CPI, Expectation +0.6% MoM US Case Schiller/S&P Home Price Index : Exp -7.0% YoY vs -9.4% last month Wednesday: US Chicago PMI: Exp 55.4 vs 56.1 last month Thursday: US Unemployment Claims: Exp 461K vs 452K last month Quiet week.

Japan’s November Economic Releases Posted: 27 Dec 2009 02:54 PM PST The following November Japanese economic releases came out to little market reaction as the calendar year-end is upon us and the Far East (AUD, NZD) are on holiday. The releases were as follows: Industrial Production (MoM) - Survey:2.5%   Actual:2.6%   Prior:0.5% Industrial Production (MoM) - Survey:-4.3%   Actual:-3.9%   Prior:-15.1% Large Retailers’ Sales - Survey:-7.7%   Actual:-9.6%   Prior:-7.2% Retail Trade (YoY) - Survey:-1.1%   Actual:-1.0%   Prior:-0.9% Retail Trade (MoM sa) - Survey:0.2%   Actual:0.2%   Prior:-0.9%

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