Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• $USDJPY moves lower away from short term moving averages.
• ISM Worse than expected as was Construction Spending. Pending Home sales much better
• US ISM data due out at 10:00 AM along with Construction Spending and Pending Home Sales.
• Canadian Finance Minister says unlikely to use options to stop the CAD$ strength
• USDCAD moves sharply lower. Finds profit taking support against 1.0415-25 level
• December 1st 2009 Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• GBPUSD at a decision point? Watching 1.6558 and 1.6600 levels
• $EURUSD moves higher overnight but runs into yesterdays highs
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.1.2009
• BOJ Emergency Meeting and lending announcement sends the USDJPY up and down
• Eur/Gbp on steady decline, trading at 100 hour M/A
• Eurozone unemployment
• UK PMI Manufacturing weaker than expected
• German Unemployment
• Eur/Usd firmly above 100 hour M/A

$USDJPY moves lower away from short term moving averages. Posted: 01 Dec 2009 07:13 AM PST The lower ISM data pushed the USDJPY to the downside below the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.   Look for  selling with stops should the price move back above these intraday MA’s.

ISM Worse than expected as was Construction Spending. Pending Home sales much better Posted: 01 Dec 2009 07:01 AM PST ISM Manufacturing comes in at 53.6 ve 55.7 last month. This was worse than expectations of 55.0.   Order Backlog 52.0 VS 53.5 last month  Price Paid 55.0 VS 65.0 last month  Inventories 41.3 VS 46.9 last month  Employment 50.8 VS 53.1 last month  Production 59.9 VS 63.3 last month  New Orders 60.3 VS 58.5 last month Although down, the index remains above the 50 level indicating that the manufacturing sector is still growing. Better international sales is likely helping and new orders for the restocking of inventories is also a positive.  Employment is growing but not by much. Construction Spending was revised much lower to -1.6% from +0.8%.  For this month the Construction Spending was 0.0%.This was better than estimate of -0.5%.  The Pending home sales was better than expected coming in at +3.7% vs expectation fo -1.0%. Last month was revised a touch lower to 6.0% from 6.1%. This is likely influenced by the 1st time homeowners incentive which was scheduled to come to an end in November.

US ISM data due out at 10:00 AM along with Construction Spending and Pending Home Sales. Posted: 01 Dec 2009 06:58 AM PST Expection is for a fall to 55.0 from 55.7.  Price Paid is expecte to stay at 65.00 Also out will be Construction Spending for October. The expectation is for a declien of -0.5% vs a gain of +0.8% last month Finally Pending Home sales for October are expected to show a -1.0% declien following the sharp 6.1% rise in September.

Canadian Finance Minister says unlikely to use options to stop the CAD$ strength Posted: 01 Dec 2009 06:54 AM PST Finance Minister Flaherty has indicated that it is unlikely the BOC would intervene in the forex market to slow the CAD$ move higher. This has led to the USDCAD moving back toward the low. There is support between the 1.0415-25 level (see prior post).  The low off the comment has not approached the level support level yet.  Upside resistance remains against the 100 bar MA currently at the 1.0472 level and moving lower.   I would expect sellers against this level. The bias remains to the downside, although, the market is showing some pause against support levels.

USDCAD moves sharply lower. Finds profit taking support against 1.0415-25 level Posted: 01 Dec 2009 06:39 AM PST In last night’s video commentary we spoke about how the USDCAD was consolidating with the price and moving averages converging, and as a result, to look for a directional move.  The price continued to consolidate in the early Far East session, then made a momentum break to the downside that has seen the price move from 1.0540-50 level to a low of 1.0422.  The pair has found support against the lows from November 12th and November 16th at the 1.0415 and the 1.0425 levels respectively (see daily chart below).  These levels should continue to provide profit taking support for the pair today.    A break below should lead to further selling for the pair. ON the topside, look for continued resistance against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (1st chart above) currently at the 1.0472 level (blue line in 5 minute chart above and moving down). Until that line is broken the bias is to the downside for the pair.

December 1st 2009 Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 01 Dec 2009 06:20 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

GBPUSD at a decision point? Watching 1.6558 and 1.6600 levels Posted: 01 Dec 2009 05:17 AM PST The 200 hour MA was broken, but the 1.6600 level provided the ceiling once again. SO the price has retraced back to the 200 hour MA at the 1.6558 level. Buy against the support, sell against the 1.6600 level and/or go with the break as the market should have additional momentum on a break. Bias remains to the upside. On the downside, the 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.6525 level. This would be a target for the pair on the downside on a break lower.  Above the 1.6600 level, the  1.6620, 1.6641. 1.6693  and ultimately the 1.6744 level are levels to watch above.

$EURUSD moves higher overnight but runs into yesterdays highs Posted: 01 Dec 2009 04:56 AM PST The EURUSD moved back through the 100 hour MA at the 1.5019 level after holding the 200 hour MA earlier in the day and the 1.4967 level which was the close from Friday’s trade.  The price move higher has been capped at the highs from yesterdayat 1.5083 (high reached 1.5082). A break of this level today will be needed to spur on further upside momentum.   On the topside the 1.5100 level and then the high for 2009 at the 1.5144 level are the next targets for the pair.  Moves above those levels should propel the pair higher. On the downside, the 1.5062 level was the old 2009 high until the move to new highs last week.  This area seems to be holding the downside and may be a key pivot level for todays trade.   Aggressive traders may look to be long above this level and short below. With a break to the downside next targeting the  100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.5042 level (currently but moving higher).  Watch these levels today.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.1.2009 Posted: 01 Dec 2009 04:40 AM PST Good Morning: The USD  and JPY dropped,  world wide equity markets rallied, and Gold set another record overnight as news spread that Dubai is in “constructive”talks to restructure part of their debt with their creditors. In the FX markets the RBA (Australia) raised interest rates  for a third straight month.  The rate rose 25 bps to 3.75%.  The JPY also fell as  Japan  makes overtures that they will add liquidity to the market with  short term-low interest rate loans to commercial banks.  This is an interesting development, as some other G20 countries are considering ending their stimulus measures. Gold hit another record high overnight, as did other commodity markets. Oil:$78.63                   Gold;$1193.10 Today’s data: ISM Mfg:                    exp: 54.8                 prior: 55.7 Pend Home Sales:  exp: -1.0%               prior: 6.1% Const Spend:           exp: -.5%                 prior: .8% Vehicle Sales:          exp: 10.5M            prior: 10.45 M HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

BOJ Emergency Meeting and lending announcement sends the USDJPY up and down Posted: 01 Dec 2009 04:32 AM PST The BOJ announced after an emergency meeting that they would offer commercial lenders 10 trilllion yen ($115 billion yen) for 3 month periods in order to help stimulate the economy and stoke inflation as they struggle with the prospects of deflation in their economy.  The actions led to a volatile move in the currency with the USDJPY first moving higher through the 100 hour MA for the first time since November 23rd, on its way to the 61.8% retracement level of the move down from the November 23rd high to the November 27th low (see 61.8% retracement level in the chart above) .  The price is now back down testing the 100 hour MA at the 86.73 level.  Buyers have emerged against the level and seem to be holding the line against the level.   The 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is also being held on the downside (green line in the chart below - currently at 86.79).  On the topside look for a move back through the 87.02 level should lead to further upside gains for the pair. This is the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart ( blue line in the chart below).

Eur/Gbp on steady decline, trading at 100 hour M/A Posted: 01 Dec 2009 03:37 AM PST Eur/Gbp has been on a steady decline since the European trading session began. The pair is trading at its 100 hour M/A of .9087 and for added support the 38.2% Fibo lies at .9085. If the pair follows its downtrend the next support level lies at .9064. If it holds look for a retracement back to .9120-25.

Eurozone unemployment Posted: 01 Dec 2009 02:12 AM PST As forecasted the Eurozone unemployment rate came in at 9.8%. Last months 9.7% reading was revised to 9.8%. Eur/Usd continues to look bid through this session as the pair is closing in on earlier highs, currently 5 points away at 1.5070.

UK PMI Manufacturing weaker than expected Posted: 01 Dec 2009 01:34 AM PST UK PMI Manufacturing came in at 51.8, weaker than the 54.0 expected and the 53.7 prior reading. Thus far Gbp/Usd is off about 20 points to 1.6510 and Eur/Gbp has gotten a 10 pip lift to .9125.

German Unemployment Posted: 01 Dec 2009 01:14 AM PST German unemployment claims decreased by 7,000, better than the 5,000 increase that was expected. Strong number for the Euro as the currency strengthens across the board. Eur/Usd made new highs at 1.5075, the pair has since come off to 1.5060-65 level. Eur/Gbp is at fresh session low of .9113.

Eur/Usd firmly above 100 hour M/A Posted: 01 Dec 2009 01:00 AM PST Eur/Usd is trading firmly above its 100 hour M/A of 1.5020. If the pair sees some pullback this will now act as a good level of support. Resistance should be at the 1.5085-90 , with next level being Nov. 25 high of 1.5144.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610