Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- December 11, 2009 Weekend Forex Commentary is available for viewing.
- Activity remains subdued as the weekend approaches
- Dec 11 2009 Forex Midday Report
- $EURUSD continues to come under pressure
- USDCHF tests 100 day MA resistance at 1.0356 level
- AUDUSD between “Goal Posts” as defined by the 100 and 200 bar moving average
- GBPUSD remains supported at the 1.6214 level. Watch key levels.
- EURUSD breaks below 100 day MA at 1.4638. A close below today would be significant.
| December 11, 2009 Weekend Forex Commentary is available for viewing. Posted: 11 Dec 2009 01:46 PM PST |
| Activity remains subdued as the weekend approaches Posted: 11 Dec 2009 11:48 AM PST The EURUSD moved above the 1.4611 level but has so far respected the resistance against the 100 day MA at the 1.4637 level. The high corrective price comes in at 1.4625 so far. We will be watching that level into the close
The USDCHF remains below the 100 day moving average at the 1.0356 level. This level will be watched into the close. A close above would be bullish but the market will probably wait for a confirmation on Monday. The GBPUSD remains below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart but above support at yesterdays low at the 1.6214 level. The 100 bar MA comes in at the 1.6255 level and as long as the price can remain below that level, the downward bias remains. |
| Dec 11 2009 Forex Midday Report Posted: 11 Dec 2009 09:30 AM PST |
| $EURUSD continues to come under pressure Posted: 11 Dec 2009 08:31 AM PST The last time the market was below the 1.4600 level was in early October. At that time, the price was moving up from the October 2nd low of 1.4480. On the way the price had interim highs at 1.4463 and a later low at the 1.4566 level. From the 1.4566 low the price continued its move higher - later using the 100 hour MA as support at the 1.4590 level (see chart) before surging to the highs. The 1.4566 level is the next support level. The upside resistance is now at 1.4611 and the 1.4638 level. Watch these levels to provide resistance. A move above the 1.4611 may see some profit taking. However, to keep the bearish bias, the 1.4638 level should not be breached. |
| USDCHF tests 100 day MA resistance at 1.0356 level Posted: 11 Dec 2009 08:07 AM PST Like the EURUSD as the 1.4638 level, the USDCHF is testing the 100 day MA as well. The current target level comes in at the 1.0356 level. The high for the day has reached 1.0362. However, the price has moved back lower. A close above this moving average level will be the first close above since April 27th 2009. Also, like the EURUSD the 38.2% retracement of the summer fall has been tested today at the 1.0338 level. This is a modest correction off of the summer high, not the high from March. If the dollar is making a more serious corrective move, the pairs correction off the March high comes in up at the 1.0699 level. First things first, however. A break of the 100 day MA is needed and this should lead to further upside momentum for the pair. |
| AUDUSD between “Goal Posts” as defined by the 100 and 200 bar moving average Posted: 11 Dec 2009 07:38 AM PST The AUDUSD is between the 100 and 200 hour MA. These are the “Goal Posts” in our technical terminology at FXDD. The price moved above the 200 hour MA earlier today which should have solicited buyers. However, the better than expected US data reversed that break (and upward bias). When a break does not do what it is suppose to do, get out. Now the downside support against the 100 hour moving average has been tested at 0.9117. A break above or below the barriers should lead to a momentum move in the direction of the break. However, before that time, look for support buyers against the 100 hour MA and sellers against the 200 hour MA. The 100 hour MA currently comes in at the 0.9117 level. Look for intraday buyers against the level with stops below. |
| GBPUSD remains supported at the 1.6214 level. Watch key levels. Posted: 11 Dec 2009 07:32 AM PST The low from yesterday is basically the low for today. Yesterday the low reache 1.6214. The low for today reached 1.6216. Watch this level. A break should solicit some selling in the pair. Key support remains at 1.6158-66 (see prior post for charts and further discussion). |
| EURUSD breaks below 100 day MA at 1.4638. A close below today would be significant. Posted: 11 Dec 2009 07:13 AM PST The 100 day MA level have given way at 1.4638. The price has been above the 100 day MA since April 28th. A close below this level will be bearish for the pair and should be significant for the bears. The next support comes in at the 1.4611 level where the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the summer lows comes in. This is a modest corrective level in the big picture for the EURUSD. If the dollar is to become more bid as a result of stronger growth, tighter interest rates, change in Fed policy earlier than later, the correction could extend down to the 38.2% of the move up from the March 2009 low level. That retracement level comes in at the 1.4117 level. The 200 day MA is also near that level (currently at the 1.4137 level). This is a longer term perspective given a change in the economic prospects for the US and is also contingent on the shorter term technicals. As we all know markets do not go down or up in a straight line so be sure to follow those moves as well. The consolidation of the range for the 3 days has set up the market for a trend type move. The break to the downside today is what we have been looking to happen. The data support the move. Resistance now comes in at 1.4638 (100 day MA) and the 1.4668 level. Watch these levels to attract sellers. |
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