Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- AUDUSD tests Fibonacci Resistance at 0.8990
- December 29th 2009 Morning Forex Report is available for viewing
- S & P/Case Schiller comes in at -7.28%.
- Case Schiller Home Price Index due at 9:00 AM
- EURUSD trends higher today. Support comes in at 1.4413/18.
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.29.2009
- $USDJPY continues to coil in a narrow range. Is a move coming?
- GBPUSDs rise and fall. What lies ahead for the pound today?
- December 29 2009 Pre-market Forex Report is available for viewing
- JP Morgan’s London Headquarters in Doubt
- Gbp/Usd trading near 200 day M/A
- French GDP
- UBS Consumption Indicator
- 12-22 Economic Calendar
- December 28th 2009 Evening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
| AUDUSD tests Fibonacci Resistance at 0.8990 Posted: 29 Dec 2009 05:24 AM PST The AUDUSD moved sharply higher today after breaking back above the 100 day moving average earlier. The price is now testing the 38.2% retracement level of the corrective move lower from the November high price of 0.9405 to the low last week at the 0.8733 level. That level comes in at 0.8990. The price is currently at this key level. Look for profit taking sellers against the level. However, a move above will likely lead to a quick cover. Below look for support at the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. That level comes in at the 0.8946 level currently (and moving higher - so watch this moving average line for directional clues). Given the trend move higher today and the move back above the 100 day MA, I would expect happy buyers against this trendline support today. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| December 29th 2009 Morning Forex Report is available for viewing Posted: 29 Dec 2009 05:07 AM PST | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| S & P/Case Schiller comes in at -7.28%. Posted: 29 Dec 2009 05:06 AM PST The S&P Case Schiller Home Price index came in at -7.28% for the YoY which is a bit weaker than expectations but should not be a big influence. The dollar is a bit lower but only a smidge. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Case Schiller Home Price Index due at 9:00 AM Posted: 29 Dec 2009 04:53 AM PST The expectation is for a rise to 147.0 from 146.51 last month. This would put the YoY composite at -7.2% vs a -9.36% last month. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EURUSD trends higher today. Support comes in at 1.4413/18. Posted: 29 Dec 2009 04:35 AM PST The EURUSD has come off the high for the day at the 1.4458 in early NY trade. The support comes in at the 1.4413/18 level this morning. The 38.2% retracement of the days range, the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and the low correction floor come in at that area. A break would be a disappointment for the days bulls who have seen the pair trend higher today after breaking above the 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 5 minute chart in early London trading. Look for support against these intraday technical levels. A break below will likely discourage and lead to some profit taking. On the topside, the next exit target on the bullish highway comes in at the 1.4480 level. This is the low from October (see chart above). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.29.2009 Posted: 29 Dec 2009 04:17 AM PST
The USD dropped against the higher yielding currencies-as signs that the global economic recovery is gaining traction continues. World wide equity markets rose, and US Futures are higher at this time. Mining companies rose, while Copper hit a 15 month high. Speculation that investors aniticipate larger economic growth in 2010 is helping the rally continue. Oil:$78.68 Gold:$1108.20
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| $USDJPY continues to coil in a narrow range. Is a move coming? Posted: 29 Dec 2009 04:10 AM PST The USDJPY is continuing to coil and consolidate. The non-trending nature of the market action tends to transition to a trend like move. As a result, we are on alert for a break out. On the topside, the 91.76/86 area has been a ceiling over the last 5 trading days. Back in July the low reached 91.72 (see daily chart below). The market is using the area as a level to pause the move higher which has seen the price move from a low of 84.80 on November 27th to the high of 91.86 reached last week. A move above this level would next target the 92.32 level which is the high from October 2009. 93.12 would be another upside target level for the pair (50% retracement of the move down from the April high to the November low). On the downside, the floor is still being provided by the 100 hour moving average (see blue line in the 1st chart above). Although the price dipped below this line for the first time since December 18th today, no momentum could be established and the price quickly reversed. The moving average currrently comes in at the 91.58 level. On a break back below this level, I would expect sellers, but also look for momentum on the break. IF not, get out as the market is telling you it is not ready for a move. Further support comes in at 91.12/15 and at the 90.79 level (100 DAY moving average). Keep options open up or down, but know that the longer a market non-trends, the better chance for a trend like move. SO be on alert for a move up or down. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GBPUSDs rise and fall. What lies ahead for the pound today? Posted: 29 Dec 2009 03:42 AM PST The GBPUSD moved above the 200 day MA at the 1.6040 level today, reached a high of 1.6067 and reversed. There was a report that JP Morgan was scraping a plan to build a new European headquarter in London citing the unfairness of the 50% tax on bonuses above 25,000 pounds. London’s economy is largely driven by the financial district. The fleeing not only by large banks like JP Morgan but also hedge fund managers to more favorable tax havens is a real concern. As a result, the GBPUSD fell back down, falling back through the 200 day MA and continuing the fall until hitting the 100 hour moving average at the 1.5980 level (low reached 1.5980). This level will remain as support for the morning trade and keeps a positive bias for the pair on a interemediate term basis. From the shorter term intraday chart, however, the price bias is down. Watch the 1.6007/15 level where the 200 and 100 bar MAs are located on the 5 minute chart to provide upside resistance early this morning (green and blue line in the chart below). A move above these levels would not be welcomed by the early bears today. Look for sellers on rallies, but keep in mind the bounce off the 100 hour moving average gives the dip buyers a reason to be encouraged. Sell or buy at the extremes given a directional trader bias, but watch for stops on breaks of the key levels. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| December 29 2009 Pre-market Forex Report is available for viewing Posted: 29 Dec 2009 03:16 AM PST | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| JP Morgan’s London Headquarters in Doubt Posted: 29 Dec 2009 02:26 AM PST J.P. Morgan may scrap plans for a new European headquarters in London. In a telephone conversation with UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling, JP’s CEO Jamie Dimon cited the unfairness of the UK’s 50% tax on banker bonuses greater than 25,000 pounds as the chief reason for the possible change of plans. Dimon feels the tax would unfairly penalize the US bank and stressed that JP Morgan paid British taxes and did not receive a UK taxpayer bailout, thus should not be subject to extra taxation. As this news hit the marketplace Gbp has sold off quite a bit. Gbp/Usd is 70 points off session highs, trading at 1.5995 and Eur/Gbp is at its session high of .9018. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gbp/Usd trading near 200 day M/A Posted: 28 Dec 2009 11:11 PM PST Gbp/Usd is trading just above its 200 day M/A of 1.6040. Since breaking below on Dec. 22 the pair has failed to close above the 200 day. If the pair can break and close above this level look for a further move up to 1.6224 (38.2% Fibo). If it closes below a move back down to recent low of 1.5918 is likely. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 28 Dec 2009 10:59 PM PST Third quarter GDP out of France had no effect on the market as it came in as expected at 0.3% (QoQ) and -2.3% (YoY). Currently, the EUR is trading at 1.4416 against the USD. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 28 Dec 2009 10:00 PM PST The UBS Consumption Indicator came in at 1.28, stronger than the .87 prior reading. There were no estimates for this figure. This should be positive news for the CHF. Usd/Chf is trading near the bottom of a 20 point trading range, currently at 1.0345. Eur/Chf currently trades at 1.4880. Neither pair has shown much reaction to the Consumption Indicator. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 28 Dec 2009 07:24 PM PST | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| December 28th 2009 Evening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 28 Dec 2009 12:20 PM PST | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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