Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- US Non Manufacturing comes in below 50. $EURUSD head back down toward support
- Dec 3 2009 Forex Market Update
- $EURUSD approaches support at the 1.5062 level and bounced. 1.5087 eyed now
- Trichet makes comment the dollar
- Intial Claims came out better than expectations
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.3.2009
- Trichet says 12 month loans to track average bid rate. $EURUSD dips but rallies to 2009 high.
- USDJPY moving sharply higher. Back above 88.00 level
- Initial and Continuing Claims due out at 8:30 AM
- ECB leaves rates unchanged. Do not announce any change in policy
- ECB meeting expected to announce scaling back of excess liquidity. EURUSD likely to be volatile
- Eurozone Retail Sales
- UK Services PMI
- Eur/Gbp above 200 hour M/A on sterling weakness
- Eur/Usd not far off Nov 25th high (1.5144)
| US Non Manufacturing comes in below 50. $EURUSD head back down toward support Posted: 03 Dec 2009 07:02 AM PST The Non Manufacturing ISM index came in at 48.7, back below the 50 level after 2 months avove 50. PRICES 57.8 vs 53.0 last month The EURUSD has moved back lower as the weak data should lead to a lower stock market. The price is back down testing the 1.5062 support level. A break finds additional support against the 1.5048 level where the 100 hour MA is found. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dec 3 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 03 Dec 2009 06:30 AM PST | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| $EURUSD approaches support at the 1.5062 level and bounced. 1.5087 eyed now Posted: 03 Dec 2009 06:29 AM PST Watching the 1.5062 level. This is the old low from 2009 reached in October 2009. Look for some initial profit taking at the level. Resistance comes in at the 1.5074 and 1.5087 now. The price is now below the 100 and 200 bar MAs on the above 5 minute chart. The high today was contained by the 2009 high price of 1.5144. This gave the bears the courage to be sellers. There is additonal support below against the 100 hour MA which is at the 1.5047 level. Watch the upside resistance levels outlined above. The more shallow the correction off the 1.5062 level the better the chance for continued downside moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Trichet makes comment the dollar Posted: 03 Dec 2009 06:00 AM PST Says very important that the US dollar is strong. He notes comments made by Bernanke once again. Of course in the Fed minutes it said the Fed as saying they were comfortable with the level of the dollar. The EURUSD has dipped back below the 1.5100 level . Support remains against the 1.5062 level (old high for 2009 reached in October but eclipsed last week). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Intial Claims came out better than expectations Posted: 03 Dec 2009 05:54 AM PST The Initial Claims for the US came out better than expectations at 8:30 with a decline to 457K from last weeks 462K. This was also better than expectations fo 480K. The Continuing Claims came in at 5465K vs expectations of 5400K. The Non Farm Productivity came in at +8.1% vs the initial estimate of 8.5%. This is still the highest level since September 2003 as producers cut high priced staff and made existing workers work harder for less wages. The Unit Labor costs fell by -2.5% for the quarter which was higher than the first cut of the release which showed a decline of -4.1%. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.3.2009 Posted: 03 Dec 2009 05:49 AM PST
The ECB left interest steady at 1%. The Euro rose as speculation that the ECB will consider scaling back their stimulus program as the Euro-Zone recovers from the global recession. The ECB will have a press conference this morning, and we will see if there are any details about removing the stimulus programs. (Please see the other postings on our site). World equity markets rose. News of improvement in the U.S. economy, and the statement from Bank of America that they are planning on paying back the bailout funds they received. U.S. Futures are higher this morning. Gold reached another record high overnight-but has settled down this morning. Oil:$77.87 Gold:$1216.80
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| Trichet says 12 month loans to track average bid rate. $EURUSD dips but rallies to 2009 high. Posted: 03 Dec 2009 05:39 AM PST The tracking to the average bid rate is removing the fixed rate provision which was thought to be opening up arbitrage opportunities in the market via carry trades. This ends after December. In addition, he notes the 6 month purchase program will end March 31st. Cites that not all liquidity measures are not needed as much. He acknowledges that risks to economic outlook is broadly balanced with risk including oil prices and protectionism Trichet also announces that 2010 GDP 0.1% to 1.5% VS previous -0.5% TO 0.9%. He also sees 2010 inflation at 0.9% to 1.7% vs previous estimate of 0.8% TO 1.6%. he expects inflation to rise temporarily as the 2008 declines fall out of the base, but that risk to inflaition is broadly balanced. The EURUSD initially moved lower on low liquidity but rallied when the comment on the 12 month loans was made. The price spiked higher to a high of 1.5141 which is just short of the 1.5144 high price for 2009. The price has moved back toward the 1.51000 level as the market continues to digest Trichets comments. So far he has not addressed the level of the EURUSD but expect him to say something with regard to its lofty status (2009 highs). His standard comment is he supports the USAs assessment that a strong dollar is desired. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| USDJPY moving sharply higher. Back above 88.00 level Posted: 03 Dec 2009 05:26 AM PST The USDJPY is moving sharply higher today. The move continues the better tone after the pair moved through the support level at the 85.85 last week, reached the low at 84.80 but bounced back higher. The price moved above the 100 hour MA yesterday. Today the price moved above the 200 hour MA. The price also moved through the 38.2% retracement level at 87.67, paused, and then used that level for a springboard to the recent surge which has taken the price up through the old 2009 low of 88.00. The next target to he upside is the 88.56 level which is the 50% retracement of the move down from the October 27th high of 92.32 and the low of 84.80. Support comes in against 88.00 and 87.67 now. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Initial and Continuing Claims due out at 8:30 AM Posted: 03 Dec 2009 05:16 AM PST The Initial Claims for the current week will be announced at 8:30 AM. The expectation is for the Initial Claims to rise to 480K from the sharply lower 466k from last week. The Continuing Claims meanwhile are expected to show further downward pressure with the weekly figure expected to show a decline to 5400K from 5423K last week. The trend in both measures have been down and the decline in the Continuing Claims seems to suggest that there are less people collecting Unemployment which says although 466K people lost their jobs, there are others who are gaining jobs back. This is good news. However, those people getting jobs may be much lower paying jobs than their previous job. Employers have the upper hand obviously. Nevertheless, a job is better than no job. In Washington,there is a Jobs Summit taking place which is specifically targeted toward the job situation. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ECB leaves rates unchanged. Do not announce any change in policy Posted: 03 Dec 2009 04:47 AM PST Trichet is likely to announce the changes in Asset Purchase Program going forward during his normal 8:30 press conference. The market is unchanged at 1.5120 after the announcement. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ECB meeting expected to announce scaling back of excess liquidity. EURUSD likely to be volatile Posted: 03 Dec 2009 04:24 AM PST Although rates are expected to remain unchanged the ECB has hinted they willl look to phase out providing excess liquidity to the banking system as a result of the credit crisis. The feeling is the liquidity is no longer needed as conditions have settled down in the market and the excess liquidity can actually be contributing to arbitrage opportunities that encourage transactions like carry trades. For example, higher yielding asset purchases could be funded with the lower yield liquidity provided by the ECB. The interest rate decision will be annonced at 7:45 AM. ECBs Jean Claude Trichet will conduct his usual press conference at 8:30 AM. This should lead to a more favorable EURO. However, given the hints by officials already, the reaction is dependent on the market’s supply and demand flows. It may already be discounted. From a technical basis, the EURUSD has already risen today - moving above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart early on and confirming the move via a move through the 1.5062 level. This was the old high for 2009. The price has been tracking the 100 bar MA for the day with a test in the beginning of the London session. The current 100 bar MA comes in at the 1.5107 level. Watch this level. A move below the 100 bar MA that stays below the level, would be bearish for the pair. Be aware that there may be increased volatility as the market sorts out the implications and the liquidity conditions will likely be less than usual. Below the 100 bar MA is the 200 bar MA on the same chart (green line in the 5 minute chart). That level comes in at the 1.5086 level. A move below this level confirms the bearish bias. On the topside the 1.5144 level is the high from 2009. It also is an area the market paused at the last time in 2008, the EURUSD was trading at these levels (see chart from 2008 below). Breaking through that level has a longer term target of 1.5284 which was lows from March 2008 and again in May 2008. This was the last time the price was up at these areas in 2008. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 03 Dec 2009 02:15 AM PST Eurozone Retail Sales m/m came in at 0.0%, weaker than the 0.2% expected, but stronger than the prior reading of -0.7%. Although the number did not beat the estimates it has to be a good sign to see retail sales out of the red. The msrket took this number as neutral as Euro has not budged since release at 5:00 EST. Eur/Usd currently trading at 1.5118, eur/Jpy at 132.80 and Eur/Gbp at .9075. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 03 Dec 2009 01:31 AM PST UK Services PMI came in at 56.6, weaker than the 57.0 estimate and 56.9 prior reading. Gbp started selling off about 30 minutes prior to release. Currently Gbp/Usd trades at 1.6645 and Eur/Gbp at .9075, new high for the pair. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Eur/Gbp above 200 hour M/A on sterling weakness Posted: 03 Dec 2009 01:25 AM PST Eur/Gbp has risen above its 200 hour M/A of .9063, mainly on sterling’s weakness going into Services PMI figures out at 4:30 EST. If the pair can get a stronghold above look for a run to .9085 where the 100 hour M/A lies. Further upward momentum could bring pair to .9105, a level it found hard to break during yesterday’s session. If the level holds we should see a move back to .9040-45 area. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Eur/Usd not far off Nov 25th high (1.5144) Posted: 02 Dec 2009 11:11 PM PST Eur/Usd has almost fully retraced move from 1.5144 down to 1.4826 from Nov 25-26. If the pair can break above 1.5118 which is a trendline of some recent hourly highs look for a move up to 1.5144. That would signify a full retracement of the vicious move downward during the Dubai crisis. To the downside there should be some support around 1.5075, with better support coming in at 1.5032, the 100 hour M/A. it appears a move upward is more likely at this point. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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