Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- The US dollar index looking to break higher?
- EURUSD consolidates the move. Awaits next directional move
- Dec 4th 2009 Morning Forex Report is available for viewing
- GBPUSD moving back higher. Tests 1.6600 level. 1.6574 is 100 hour MA support. Watch levels
- USDJPY surges higher. Watching support at 89.45 on the downside and 90.15 resistance above
- NFP fall by -11K and revisions better. Job losses fall
- Dec 3 2009 FXDD Online Training Rebroadcast
- US Unemployment report due at 8:30 AM. -125K loss in NFP expected.
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.4.2009
- Canada Unemployment comes in at 8.5%, +79.1K jobs
- Canada Unemployment due at 7:00 AM
- Swiss CPI
- Eur/Gbp comes off highs, touches 100 hour M/A
- 12-4 Economic Calendar
- $NZDUSD tests its 100 hour support today and holds, but topside has some resistance as well.
| The US dollar index looking to break higher? Posted: 04 Dec 2009 07:27 AM PST A customer sent me this chart of the US dollar index. It is looking like a break of the trendline is in the works. Just an FYI. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EURUSD consolidates the move. Awaits next directional move Posted: 04 Dec 2009 07:00 AM PST The EURUSD fell through the 1.4948 level on its way to a low for the day. So far the low has reached the 1.4912 level (no real technical significance). The price has rebounded to a high price of 1.4964. This is below resistance at 1.4971-75 area . The 1.4971 level is the lows from November 30th and December 1. While the 1.4975 level is the 38.2% retracement of the plunge lower after the number. On the downside, the 1.4888 level has been a level over the last month or so where the price has used as support/resistance and/or seemed to move through quickly. Below that level is all sorts of lows between the 1.4800 and 1.4830 level again over the last month (see 1st chart above). On the daily chart keep in mind the trendline support at the 1.4860 area as well. A move below this line should lead to a lower move for the EURUSD. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dec 4th 2009 Morning Forex Report is available for viewing Posted: 04 Dec 2009 06:42 AM PST | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GBPUSD moving back higher. Tests 1.6600 level. 1.6574 is 100 hour MA support. Watch levels Posted: 04 Dec 2009 06:37 AM PST The GBPSUD has moved back above the 1.6600 level in volatile trade. The pair move higher earlier in the day and fell to toward the 38.2% retracement of the last move higher in the pair that saw the price move from a low of 1.6271 to the high reached at 1.6720. That level came in at 1.6549 (low reached 1.6541). The price rebounded however and is back above the 100 and 200 hour MA at the 1.6574 and 1.6566 levels respectively. Now the marker is caught between the MA support and the 1.6600 level resistance. Watch these levels for clues to direction. Breaks of the support or resistance should lead to momentum moves in that direction. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| USDJPY surges higher. Watching support at 89.45 on the downside and 90.15 resistance above Posted: 04 Dec 2009 06:04 AM PST The USDJPY is being the big beneficiary as interest in risk trades increase and this adds fuel to the fire for the USDJPY. The USJPY has now moved through the 61.8% retraceement of the move down from the October 27th high to the low reached at 84.80. That level comes in at the 89.45 level which is now a support level for the pair. The next upside target for the pair is the 90.15 then 90.63. which are old lows/highs for the pair (see chart above). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NFP fall by -11K and revisions better. Job losses fall Posted: 04 Dec 2009 05:37 AM PST The NFP came in at -11K. The prior month rose to -111K from -190K. Overall jobs were created when looking at the all revisions. A total of 158K jobs were created with the revisions. The Unemployment rate improved as well to 10.0% from 10.2% last month. Overall, a very good report. The workforce declined by 100K which allowed for the Unemployment rate to decline. Gold is moving lower. The EURUSD has fallen as the report signals the Fed may be more inclined to raise rates sooner rather than later. This has pushed the price below the 100 and 200 hour MA at the 1.5035 level. The volatility is still quite high. The next support comes in at 1.4971 level which was lows from 11/30 and 12/01. Below that 1.4948. The bias is down for the pair but look for choppy volatile action. On the topside the resistance comes in at the 1.5014 level (38.2% of the days rang) and above that at the 200 hour moving average at the 1.5035 level | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dec 3 2009 FXDD Online Training Rebroadcast Posted: 04 Dec 2009 05:30 AM PST Dec 03 2009 FXDD Online Training -Click Here | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| US Unemployment report due at 8:30 AM. -125K loss in NFP expected. Posted: 04 Dec 2009 04:53 AM PST The US Unemployment is due at 8:30 AM this morning. The dollar is lower going into the data with the GBPUSD leading the way. The Unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 10.2% for November. The all time high (going back to 1948 at least) comes in at 10.4% in 1983. There was a reported headline that the White House saw reason to believe the Unemployment rate would go higher today. Later they denied that comment. The Non Farm Payroll is expected to rise to -125K from -190K last month the -125K number would be the lowest level since March 2008. The jobs recession started in January 2008 when the first negative NFP number was released. It has been 22 straight months of declines since that time. This is the longest string of monthly job losses on record. Over the 22 months a total of 7.304 million people have lost their jobs. The hardest hit industry has been the Manufacturing sector. Trade, Transportation and Utilities has been the next harded hit with 1.711 million jobs lost . The only gainers have been Health Care which has added 804 K jobs since January 2008 and Government which is spending billions of dollars to keep employment up. The problem with government is state and local governments are a drag as budgets are in the red and cuts are being made across the board. Last month the Health Care and Professional and Business services sector led the way. The sector that lost the most jobs was the Trade, Transportation and Utilities as jobs in the Retail sector continued to suffer. Manufacturing lost 61K jobs last month and this month the expectation is for another declined but higher decline of 45K jobs. The Manufacturing sector has lost jobs 23 consecutive months and 39 of the last 40 months. 2.5 million Manufacturing workers have lost their jobs since July 2006. For this month with the Initial Claims data showing improvement the market is getting antsy for a better than expected number. However, as the economy does rebound it is not unusual for the unemployment rate to continue to go higher as discourage unemployed re-enter the labor force. This has the effect of pushing up the unemployment rate. Be aware of the potential for NFP to improve while the Unemployment rate does not. Other leading indicators of improvement, if the Temporary Workers can show another increase (they have increased 3 months in a row), this can be a good leading indicator as long as momentum can be maintained. Those temporary workers have the potential to become full time employers if the improving employment trend and economic growth continues. As with all employment reports the volatility and risk increases. The market has to digest a lot of information and often the reactions from different things in the report cause confussion and volatile up and down moves. Be aware and plan your trade accordingly knowing risk is elevated. From a technical perpective,the EURUSD ahs the 100 hour MA at the 1.5062 level and the 200 hour MA around the 1.5031 level. A move below the 1.5062 100 hour MA level would confirm the downside with a move below the 1.5021-30 level. On the topside, the 1.5117 and the 1.5144 level (high for 2009) are key upside levels to watch. A break above the 1.5145 level could target the 1.5285 level eventually. For the GBPUSD the 1.6600 level remains a key level to eye as support on the downside. Below that level a move below the 1.6566/74 level (100 and 200 hour MAs) should lead to lower levels. On the topside watch 1.6694. A move above that level target 1.6720 but the real topside level to surpass is 1.6744. For the USDJPY, the pair has support at the 88.00 level. This was the old low from October 2009. There is also trendline support at the 87.80 level. A move below these levels should target lower levels with the 100 and 200 hour MA at the 87.28 level a downside attraction. On the topside watch the 88.56 level. This is the midpoint of the move down from the October 27th high of 92.32 to the low at 84.80. Above that level, the market will look toward 89.45 (61.8% of the same move lower). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.4.2009 Posted: 04 Dec 2009 04:36 AM PST
The USD was slightly weaker ahead of this morning’s employment data. In Germany, the Bundesbank upgraded it’s forcast for growth in 2010. Asian equity markets were mixed, and Europe is lower at this time. US Futures are pointing to a higher opening this morning. Today the markets will focus on the employment data. There are potentially mixed sgnals between the Non Farm Payroll data and the outright unemployment rate. Watch this section for continuous updates during ths day. Oil:$75.85 Gold:$1205.70
HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Canada Unemployment comes in at 8.5%, +79.1K jobs Posted: 04 Dec 2009 04:01 AM PST This is much better than expectations and is leading to a lower USDCAD. Full time rose 38.8K and Part time jobs rose by 40.4K. This is the highest reading since Septemebr 2008 The USDCAD has moved below the 100 hour MA at the 1.0507 level. Look for the level to hold retracements. The downside target for the pair is the 1.0405/15 area. On Tuesday the price broke the floor at 1.0415 got to 1.0405 but bounced strongly. This level will be the attraction on the downside for the pair. The low from yesterday came in at 1.0475 and on Wednesday the low was at 1.0430. These levels are likely to cause some support on the downside as well. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Canada Unemployment due at 7:00 AM Posted: 04 Dec 2009 03:55 AM PST The expectation is for a gain of 15K jobs versus a surprise loss of 43.2K last month. The unemployment rate is expected to stay steady at 8.6%. Also out of Canada today will be the IVEY Purchasing Managers index at 10 AM NYT. The expectation for it is for a dip to 60.0 from 61.2 last month. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 04 Dec 2009 12:40 AM PST Swiss CPI m/m came in at 0.2%, stronger than the 0.1% forecasted , but weaker than the 0.6% prior reading. No major change in Eur/Chf or Usd/Chf as they trade at 1.5070 and 1.0000 respectively. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Eur/Gbp comes off highs, touches 100 hour M/A Posted: 03 Dec 2009 11:21 PM PST Eur/Gbp has come off session highs about 20 points and touches its 100 hour M/A of .9089. The moves of this pair the last couple of days have been well defined as we have been portraying in recent hourly charts. A break below .9089 should bring Eur/Gbp down to .9065-70 level where it has support at .9072 (200 hour M/A) and .9064 (50% Fibo). If the pair can hold look for a move back up to .9110-15, although a break to the downside seems more likely. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 03 Dec 2009 08:31 PM PST | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| $NZDUSD tests its 100 hour support today and holds, but topside has some resistance as well. Posted: 03 Dec 2009 10:00 AM PST The NZDUSD came down today and tested the 100 hour MA at the 0.7209 level. The low reached 0.7211 today. The current level comes in at the 0.7211 level and will continue to be eyed as support for the pair. On the topside the pair has resistance at the 0.7251 level going into the New York afternoon. This level corresponds to low levels from yesterday and the level also was a level of support and resistance on the hourly chart today. WIth the price bouncing off the 100 hour MA the bias remains to the upside. However, expect the 0.7251 level to put up a fight on the upside today with sellers against the level. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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