Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• USDCHF: The forgotten currency pair. Is it time for a move?
• Key technical levels for mulitiple currencies all in allignment
• EURUSD breaks below the 1.2962 support level
• Forex Morning Report- August 11th
• USDCAD breaks above the 200 day MA at 1.0393
• Trade Deficit much worse
• US & Canada Trade Balance Both Have Worse Data
• Canada Trade Balance Due at 8:30AM
• EURUSD technicals turn to the downside
• US Trade Balance Due at 8:30AM
• Rebroadcast of Tuesday August 10th 2010 Webinar
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary reviews the flight out of risk
• BOE cuts UK GDP forecast, sees inflation below 2% in 2012
• UK unemployment data
• Usd/Jpy may test historical levels

USDCHF: The forgotten currency pair. Is it time for a move? Posted: 11 Aug 2010 07:14 AM PDT The USDCHF has been in a choppy trading range over the lastmonth. Is it time for a break? For a review of a technical analysis of the choppy currency, click on the link

Key technical levels for mulitiple currencies all in allignment Posted: 11 Aug 2010 06:46 AM PDT

EURUSD breaks below the 1.2962 support level Posted: 11 Aug 2010 06:30 AM PDT

Forex Morning Report- August 11th Posted: 11 Aug 2010 06:30 AM PDT Forex Morning Report- August 11th

USDCAD breaks above the 200 day MA at 1.0393 Posted: 11 Aug 2010 05:56 AM PDT

Trade Deficit much worse Posted: 11 Aug 2010 05:33 AM PDT The Real Trade Deficit was also much worse (this is used in GDP and will lower 2nd quarter GDP). That measure moved from 45.992 billion to 54.136 billion (highest since Feb 2008). The headline number went from 41.984 billion last month to -49.895 this month, with Exports -1.3% and Imports +3.0%. Total exports -1.3% Goods -2.2% Capital goods -3.8% Semiconductors -7.5% Computer access. -5.7% Telecom equipment -5.0% Civilian aircraft 0.9% Indust. supplies -3.1% Consumer goods 0.9% Automotive 2.5% Food & beverage -3.9% Total imports MoM% 3.0% Goods 3.3% Ex-petroleum 4.7% Capital goods 1.2% Semiconductors 3.3% Computer access. -0.2% Telecom equipment 9.4% Civilian aircraft 53.2% Indust. supplies -0.4% Crude oil -1.0% Consumer goods 7.8% Pharmaceuticals 12.1% Apparel 1.3% Automotive 6.6% Food & beverage 0.4% Consumer Goods led the surge in imports with 3.1 billion change from last month. Crude Oil Imports were actually down.  They used a price level of $72.44.  The current price is higher which would indicate that in future months the oil imports are likely to be higher (given the same demand).  Civilian Aircraft rose 53.2% MoM but was only .232 billion increase. Automotive imports rose by 1.287 billion.

US & Canada Trade Balance Both Have Worse Data Posted: 11 Aug 2010 05:33 AM PDT

Canada Trade Balance Due at 8:30AM Posted: 11 Aug 2010 05:16 AM PDT

EURUSD technicals turn to the downside Posted: 11 Aug 2010 05:14 AM PDT The EURUSD technical picture has turned to the downside. The price is below the 38.2% retracement on the daily chart at 1.3124. Off the hourly chart, the price fell below the 100 and 200 hour MAs and has moved below the 50% retracement of the move up from the July 21st low at 1.3033 (watch that level this NY morning on corrections). It is below 100 and 200 bar MA levels and trending on th 5 minute chart. All are bearish. Being patient and waiting for corrective moves are preferred but be sure to define risk. For a full review, click on the following link.

US Trade Balance Due at 8:30AM Posted: 11 Aug 2010 05:12 AM PDT

Rebroadcast of Tuesday August 10th 2010 Webinar Posted: 11 Aug 2010 04:35 AM PDT Rebroadcast of Tuesday August 10th 2010 WebinarClick here to watch. This is a really good class to watch for new traders. Entry and Exits explained.

The NY Opening Forex Commentary reviews the flight out of risk Posted: 11 Aug 2010 04:34 AM PDT

BOE cuts UK GDP forecast, sees inflation below 2% in 2012 Posted: 11 Aug 2010 02:44 AM PDT The Bank of England cuts UK GDP forecast, growth at 3% annual pace in two years.  It sees inflation below 2% in 2012, based on 1% rate end of 2011 and 1.9% end of 2012. CPI forecasts at about 1.3% at start of 2012.  King says weaker GBP will be tailwind for UK economy. Gbp/Usd is off about 80 points to 1.5698 and Gbp/Jpy down the same to 133.70 on the news.

UK unemployment data Posted: 11 Aug 2010 01:36 AM PDT The UK Claimant Count came in at -3,800, stronger than the -17,200 expected. The Claimant Count Rate remains at 4.5%. Average weekly earnings 3m/y came in at  1.1%,weaker than the 1.3% expectation. Sterling made a new session low of 1.5757 upon news.

Usd/Jpy may test historical levels Posted: 10 Aug 2010 10:20 PM PDT Usd/Jpy saw an aggressive sell off  post FOMC but has yet to break below 85.00. The pair should run into resistance at the 85.45-50 level where the 38.2% fibo lies (85.00 low, 86.21 high). The longer the pair stays below this level the better shot we have of seeing Usd/Jpy below 85.00 and test its 15 year low of 84.80. Here is a monthly chart showing the last time Usd/Jpy was below 85.00 back in July of 1995. Based on this chart there should be an abundance of bids in front of this level, though a break below may be extremely sharp. Expect high volatility in the pair if it continues this sell off.

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