Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD between the Goal Posts…Looking for a break
• GBPUSD moves below 200 hour MA in quiet UK holiday trade
• Forex Morning Report- August 30th
• This weeks Webinar: “Why I love the 100 and 200 bar moving average” You need to register
• USDJPY: The 84.80 rears it’s head again. Watch level this morning
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.30.2010
• Personal Income, Personal Spending Along with PCE Data Same as Survey
• EURUSD tests support at 1.2682-90
• EURJPY pauses at the 100 hour MA. Between the Goal Posts
• Personal Income & Personal Spending Data 8:30AM
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary for August 30th is available for viewing
• BoJ not as aggressive as market anticipated; yen regains early losses
• 8-30 Economic Calendar
• BOJ Expands Credit
• USD/JPY Better Bid

EURUSD between the Goal Posts…Looking for a break Posted: 30 Aug 2010 07:15 AM PDT When the EURUSD trades above the 100 hour MA, it gives the pair a bullish bias. When the price trades above the 200 hour MA, it confirms the bullish bias. When the price fails to stay above the 200 hour MA and moves back below that moving average, longs should be exited as the market is saying, “I am not ready to trend higher”. This is the situation for the EURUSD today. The price gapped above the 200 hour MA in early trade, then came down to test the 200 hour MA as momentum faded (green line in the chart below). The price moved below the 200 hour MA line and moved back down to test the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart) where buyers reemerged against the 100 hour MA and the 50% retracement level.  Note the market could not register a close below the 100 hour MA line and a modest buying rally ensued.    The correction took the price up to the 1.2715 level.  The price move higher has faded and the price has rotated back down in quiet trading.  When the price is “Trading Between the Goal Posts”  it is a signal that the market is unsure of the directional move. Typically, a move below the 100 hour MA (blue line) or above the 200 hour MA should lead to a move away.  So watch the levels and look for momentum on a break.

GBPUSD moves below 200 hour MA in quiet UK holiday trade Posted: 30 Aug 2010 06:44 AM PDT

Forex Morning Report- August 30th Posted: 30 Aug 2010 06:30 AM PDT Forex Morning Report- August 30th

This weeks Webinar: “Why I love the 100 and 200 bar moving average” You need to register Posted: 30 Aug 2010 06:25 AM PDT To all.. Due to positive comments and interest, we will focus Tuesday’s webinar on the weekend post titled “Why I love the 100 and 200 bar moving average“  The webinar will take place at Tuesday, August 31st, 4pm est/ 21:00 GMT. You do need to register for the webinar by going to the following site: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/356147496 Kind regards, Greg Michalowski

USDJPY: The 84.80 rears it’s head again. Watch level this morning Posted: 30 Aug 2010 05:47 AM PDT

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.30.2010 Posted: 30 Aug 2010 05:34 AM PDT Good Morning: The UK is closed today for their summer bank holiday-thus thinning out the ranks of market participants for a Monday. The JPY advanced as speculation that the BOJ will increasee credit easing measures.  Policy makers in Japan indicated that they want a weaker Yen.  They did not take direct steps to weaken the JPY, but made every indication that they will f necessary. Asian equity markets were higher, and European markets are lower.  US Futures are also lower this mornng. Oil:$74.71                                              Gold:$1238.70 TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 8:30A.M. PERSONAL INCOME JULY 0.30% 0.00% 8:30A.M. PERSONAL SPENDING JULY 0.30% 0.00% 8:30A.M. PCE DEFLATOR YoY JULY 1.40% 1.40% 8:30A.M. PCE CORE MoM JULY 0.10% 0.00% 8:30A.M. PCE CORE YoY JULY 1.40% 1.40% 10:30A.M. DALLAS FED MANF. ACTIVITY AUG. -21.00%         HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Personal Income, Personal Spending Along with PCE Data Same as Survey Posted: 30 Aug 2010 05:33 AM PDT Personal Income:           Survey: 0.3%         Actual: 0.2%        Prior: 0.0%          Personal Spending:        Survey: 0.3%         Actual: 0.4%         Prior: 0.0%        PCE Deflator:    Survey: 1.5%         Actual: 1.5%         Prior: 1.4%         PCE Core(MoM):     Survey: 0.1%         Actual: 0.1%         Prior: 0.0%       PCE Core(YoY):    Survey: 1.4%         Actual: 1.4%         Prior: 1.4%

EURUSD tests support at 1.2682-90 Posted: 30 Aug 2010 05:30 AM PDT

EURJPY pauses at the 100 hour MA. Between the Goal Posts Posted: 30 Aug 2010 05:13 AM PDT

Personal Income & Personal Spending Data 8:30AM Posted: 30 Aug 2010 04:59 AM PDT

The NY Opening Forex Commentary for August 30th is available for viewing Posted: 30 Aug 2010 04:56 AM PDT

BoJ not as aggressive as market anticipated; yen regains early losses Posted: 30 Aug 2010 12:23 AM PDT The BoJ was not as aggressive as some thought only making minor adjustments to policy. The markets had been looking for more aggressive action, possibly intervention, to weaken the currency. Usd/Jpy rose to 85.88 earlier in anticipation of bolder steps by the BoJ. When market learned of only tweaks in policy the pair sold off to 84.90. Currently Usd/Jpy trades at 85.10.

8-30 Economic Calendar Posted: 29 Aug 2010 09:04 PM PDT

BOJ Expands Credit Posted: 29 Aug 2010 08:25 PM PDT The BOJ has kept the overnight rate unchanged at 0.10%. (unanimous) BOJ expands credit program from 20 Trillion Yen to 30. To provide 10TLN Yen in 6 month lending program. Expansion of credit to enhance easing effect and guide market rate lower. BOJ reiterates economy will stay on recovery path, shows further signs of moderate economy. BOJ says consumer price drop will keep moderating. Uncertainty about economy, particularly US growing. Suda was opposed to expanding credit. Surprisingly, the Yen received a bid on this release, moving off session highs, but the USD/JPY has gained some traction in the middle of the 85 handle.

USD/JPY Better Bid Posted: 29 Aug 2010 07:31 PM PDT The Yen has weakened to open the trading week as the Chief Cabinet Secretary Sengoku is indicating that Finance Minister Kan and the BOJ’s Shirakawa will meet this afternoon to discuss the state of the economy, after which Kan will decide on a stimulus outline. It seems the market is interpreting this as additional easing is in the pipline, particularly with the strong performance of the Yen recently making things more difficult in Japan. On a 4-hr chart it seems the USD/JPY pair has broken the channel below to the upside and could test the 4-200hr moving average in the near-term. Above that indicator it seems that resistance is abundant, however at these depreciated levels the pair could move higher as easily as it did lower.

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