Friday, August 27, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

The EURUSD remains within the boundary after Bernanke speech

Posted: 27 Aug 2010 07:19 AM PDT

Fed Chairman Bernanke on the Wires

Posted: 27 Aug 2010 07:04 AM PDT

Bernanke Says:

  • Fed will do ‘all it can’ to ensure US recovery
  • inflation fallen to level below FOMC preference
  • FOMC prepared to provide more accommodation if needed
  • fed has tools to support growth, oppose disinflation
  • more long-term securities buying would be effective
  • economic recovery ‘remains far from complete’
  • growth ‘has been to slow’ unemployment too high
  • FOMC not agreed on ‘criteria or triggers’ for action
  • preconditions for growth pickup in 2011 are in place
  • households more cautions about outlook than nexpected
  • near term spending likly to grow slowly
  • modest pace of growth for second half of 2010

FOMC Bernanke speech

Posted: 27 Aug 2010 07:02 AM PDT

Below is the link for the complete text of the speech as posted on the Federal Reserve website.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20100827a.htm

Highlights

  • Inflation should remain near current levels
  • Prepared to provide more accomodation if needed
  • Tools to support growth, oppose disinflation
  • Economic recovery far from complete but growth too slow and unemployment too high
  •  Modest growth in second half
  • Consumer spending to grow slowly

Michigan Confidence Drops Slightly

Posted: 27 Aug 2010 06:55 AM PDT

University of Michigan Confidence:       Survey:  69.6            Actual:  68.9               Prior: 69.6

 

Market stays calm on the news, Fed’s Bernanke to speak at 10AM.

Michigan Confidence 9:55AM

Posted: 27 Aug 2010 06:40 AM PDT

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Forex Morning Report- August 27

Posted: 27 Aug 2010 06:28 AM PDT

Forex Morning Report- August 27

Fed’s Bullard on CNBC

Posted: 27 Aug 2010 05:59 AM PDT

  • US double dip not likely
  • Recovery has gone reasonably well but slowed in the spring
  • Monetary policy is extremely accomodative
  • FOMC possibly contemplating more QE
  • Growth slower but stil positive in the 2nd half of the year
  • Housing is so low it’ll just be flat
  • Fed ready to act if situation worsens

I can’t help to think his comments dovetail the Chairmans.  It is what it is folks. The  economy has weak housing and employment. It is in a slow patch.  Policy is extremely accomodative as rates have not been this low before.  Bernanke will likely stress that the Fed look to use more QE if warranted. What else can they do?

USDJPY moves higher on better GDP, but waiting for Bernanke

Posted: 27 Aug 2010 05:50 AM PDT

GDP Review. Better consumption was the difference

Posted: 27 Aug 2010 05:33 AM PDT

The Personal Consumption was the difference. Consumption grew by 2.0% vs 1.6% expected. Instead of contributing 1.15% of the GDP it contributed 1.38%.

Other pieces were as expected. Inventories declined. Imports rose making the net trade more of a drain. Government was little changed.

GDP, Personal Consumption & PCE all have Stronger Data

Posted: 27 Aug 2010 05:32 AM PDT

GDP QoQ (Annualized):      Survey: 1.4%          Actual: 1.6%            Prior:  2.4%         

Personal Consumption:     Survey: 2.4%          Actual: 2.0%           Prior:  3.0%          

GDP Price Index:     Survey:  1.8%         Actual:  1.9%       Prior:  1.8%       

Core PCE (QoQ):    Survey:  1.1%         Actual: 1.1%        Prior: 1.1%       

US GDP and Core PCE Data at 8:30AM

Posted: 27 Aug 2010 05:01 AM PDT

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GDP, then Bernanke, Bernanke and Bernanke

Posted: 27 Aug 2010 04:49 AM PDT

Expect a sugar rush like move as Bernanke comments are reported at 10 AM. Last year, the comments had around a 100 pip range as the market moved up and down and all around. This year I would expect something similar. The comments are anyone’s guess. Popular thought is if new or rather a strong hint of QE (which is doubtful as that is why there is a FOMC - they decide that), the dollar gets weaker. If he doesn’t hint, expect up and down volatility. The good news is that the market has some key levels that straddle the current price so there are some boundaries to lean against or use as guides for bullish or bearish bias. I would think that the smart money will be using and watching the key levels for their clues today. Click to see the key levels.

Kan; ready to take bold action on currencies

Posted: 27 Aug 2010 01:36 AM PDT

Japan PM Kan states he is ready to take bold action on currencies. He will meet with Governor Shirakawa upon return from U.S.

UK Revised Quarterly GDP & Premliminary Business Investment

Posted: 27 Aug 2010 01:33 AM PDT

UK GDP q/q was revised up to 1.2% from 1.1%.

Premliminary Business Investment q/q came in at -1.6%, weaker than the 2.3% expected.

Gbp/Usd was bought up about 40 points prior to release of figures to trade at 1.5535. The pair currently is back down to 1.5505.

German Import Prices

Posted: 26 Aug 2010 11:05 PM PDT

German Import Prices m/m -0.2%, weaker than the 0.1% expected.

Not much market reaction to figure as Eur/Usd trades at 1.2725.

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