Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US Confidence & Business Inventories Both Higher
• USDCHF tiptoeing between support and resistance
• University of Michigan Confidence and Business Inventories Data 10AM
• Forex Morning Report- August 13th
• Retail Sales a touch better provides relief
• Consumer Price Index Better as Retail Sales a Touch Lower
• Odds don’t favor a decline in Retail Sales unless heading toward recession
• US Consumer Price Index & Retail Sales Data 8:30AM
• NY Opening Forex Commentary. EURUSD falls despite stronger growth
• Eurozone Flash GDP
• Swiss PPI
• German Preliminary GDP
• Eur/Jpy toying with hourly resistance
• 8-13 Economic Calendar
• BOJ July 14-15 Meeting Minutes

US Confidence & Business Inventories Both Higher Posted: 13 Aug 2010 07:01 AM PDT University of Michigan Confidence:       Survey:  69.0            Actual:  69.6               Prior: 67.8 Business Inventories:      Survey:  0.2%            Actual: 0.3%           Prior: 0.1%             Revised:  0.2%

USDCHF tiptoeing between support and resistance Posted: 13 Aug 2010 06:32 AM PDT The USDCHF is tiptoeing between support and resistance. ON the downside is support against the 1.0514 level while above there is resistance against the 1.0543-45 level. A break of either extreme should see a further move in the direct of the break. SO watch the key levels and look for a break. For more click on the following link

University of Michigan Confidence and Business Inventories Data 10AM Posted: 13 Aug 2010 06:25 AM PDT

Forex Morning Report- August 13th Posted: 13 Aug 2010 06:16 AM PDT Forex Morning Report- August 13th

Retail Sales a touch better provides relief Posted: 13 Aug 2010 05:43 AM PDT The headline number was a touch weaker than the 0.5% expected (+0.4%)but the prior two months were revised higher (-0.3% from -0.5% and -1.0% from -1.1%). However, ex-auto and gas came in down -0.1% after a 0.2% gain last month and a -1.1% decline in the previous month. The market seems relieved the number did not surprise to the downside (thank goodness it was not the 3rd negative number in a row). As a result the initial reaction is a short covering move in the USDJPY. A test of the key 86.22 level will be eyed for the pair. The EURUSD is back above the 1.2802 level (100 day MA) and this should be a relief on a Friday. Intraday traders will likely buy against a stop below the 1.2800 level.

Consumer Price Index Better as Retail Sales a Touch Lower Posted: 13 Aug 2010 05:35 AM PDT Consumer Price Index (MoM):    Survey: 0.2%      Actual: 0.3%    Prior:  -0.1%       CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM):     Survey: 0.1%      Actual:  0.1%    Prior:  0.2%      Consumer Price Index  (y/y):     Survey: 1.2%   Actual: 1.2%   Prior: 1.1% Core CPI (y/y) - Survey: 0.9%   Actual: 0.9%   Prior: 0.9% CPI Core Index SA:          Actual: 221.676            Prior: 221.388 Consumer Price Index NSA:   Survey: 218.100     Actual:  218.011       Prior:   217.965 Advance Retail Sales:           Survey:  0.5%            Actual:  0.4%               Prior: -0.5%                 Revised:  -.3% Retail Sales Less Autos:           Survey:  0.3%            Actual: 0.2%               Prior: -0.1%                 Revised:  -.1% Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas:   Survey: 0.1%              Actual:  -.1%                 Prior: 0.1%                 Revised:  0.2%

Odds don’t favor a decline in Retail Sales unless heading toward recession Posted: 13 Aug 2010 05:23 AM PDT

US Consumer Price Index & Retail Sales Data 8:30AM Posted: 13 Aug 2010 05:01 AM PDT

NY Opening Forex Commentary. EURUSD falls despite stronger growth Posted: 13 Aug 2010 04:41 AM PDT

Eurozone Flash GDP Posted: 13 Aug 2010 02:03 AM PDT Eurozone Flash GDP q/q came in at 1.0%, stronger than the 0.7% expected. The market anticipated a stronger reading based on the positive German GDP released earlier in the session. No market reaction to this number as Eur/Usd remains at 1.2860.

Swiss PPI Posted: 13 Aug 2010 12:18 AM PDT Swiss July PPI came in at -0.5%, weaker than the -0.2% expected. Y/y came in at 0.5%, weaker than the 0.8% expected. The Chf seemingly unaffected by weaker PPI figures as Eur/Chf and Usd/Chf trade at 1.3530 and 1.0497 respectively.

German Preliminary GDP Posted: 12 Aug 2010 11:04 PM PDT German Preliminary GDP q/q came in at 2.2%, stronger than the 1.3% expected. Y/y came in at 3.7%, stronger than the 2.4% expected. Eur/Usd rose about 20 points to 1.2895 upon release of very encouraging GDP figures.

Eur/Jpy toying with hourly resistance Posted: 12 Aug 2010 10:49 PM PDT Eur/Jpy has tested  a resistance line of old hourly highs (110.85)  3 times in recent trading. If the pair can break above this line a move to 111.61, its 100 hour M/A,  is possible. Another failure may bring Eur/Jpy back down to 110.00 or lower. The latter seems more likely.

8-13 Economic Calendar Posted: 12 Aug 2010 08:55 PM PDT

BOJ July 14-15 Meeting Minutes Posted: 12 Aug 2010 05:03 PM PDT Must watch yen, stock impact closely. Yen is seen as a relatively safe asset. Both upside and downside risks were growing. More concerned with downside risks in the second half of 2010. Must pay attention to global markets. Must keep watching whether yields keep falling.

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