Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Philadelphia Fed Very Bad Data & Leading Indicators Remain the Same
• US Philadelphia Fed & Leading Indicators Data at 10AM
• Canada Leading Indicators Down Along with Wholesale Sales
• Jobless Claims Rise with Continuing Claims Slightly Better
• Jobless Claims Along with Continuing Claims Data 8:30AM
• UK CBI Industrial Orders
• UK Retail Sales better than expected
• Swiss Trade Balance
• German PPI
• 8-19 Economic Calendar
• Bollard on the wires…
• GBP/JPY Finding Resistance From 100 HR MAVG
• New Zealand PPI
• The markets still non-trending. Be aware for extensions as the week moves forward
• GBPUSD bases again and moving up. 1.5621-31 resistance

Philadelphia Fed Very Bad Data & Leading Indicators Remain the Same Posted: 19 Aug 2010 07:01 AM PDT Philadelphia Fed:     Survey: 7.0      Actual: -7.7      Prior:  5.1 Leading Indicators:    Survey: 0.1%     Actual:  0.1%    Prior:  -0.2%    Revised:  -.3%      USD/JPY trading lower on the news. Euro Stays Rangebound.

US Philadelphia Fed & Leading Indicators Data at 10AM Posted: 19 Aug 2010 05:57 AM PDT

Canada Leading Indicators Down Along with Wholesale Sales Posted: 19 Aug 2010 05:42 AM PDT Leading Indicators MoM:          Survey:  0.7%           Actual:  0.4%            Prior:  1.0%             Revised:   0.7% Wholesale Sales MoM :         Survey:  0.4%            Actual:  -0.3%             Prior:  -0.1%             Revised:   0.0%

Jobless Claims Rise with Continuing Claims Slightly Better Posted: 19 Aug 2010 05:32 AM PDT Initial Jobless Claims:             Survey: 478K    Actual: 500K    Prior: 484K    Revised: 488K    Continuing Claims:                  Survey: 4500K    Actual: 4478K    Prior: 4452K    Revised: 4491K

Jobless Claims Along with Continuing Claims Data 8:30AM Posted: 19 Aug 2010 04:56 AM PDT

UK CBI Industrial Orders Posted: 19 Aug 2010 03:04 AM PDT CBI Industrial Orders came in at -14, inline with expectations and stronger than the prior reading of -16. Gbp/Usd is making new highs, currently trading at 1.5655.

UK Retail Sales better than expected Posted: 19 Aug 2010 01:36 AM PDT UK Retail Sales m/m came in at 1.1%, stronger than the 0.3% expected.  Y/y came in at 1.3%, stronger than the 0.6% expected. Gbp/Usd stronger by 80 points to 1.5600 oupon the release.

Swiss Trade Balance Posted: 18 Aug 2010 11:17 PM PDT Swiss Trade Balance came in at 2.89B, stronger than the 1.86B expected. CHF unchanged on news as Eur/Chf trades at 1.3367 and Usd/Chf at 1.0438.

German PPI Posted: 18 Aug 2010 11:02 PM PDT German PPI m/m came in at 0.5%, stronger than the 0.1% expected. Y/y came in at 3.7%, stronger than the 3.3% expected. Good numbers for the Euro as Eur/Usd has been slowly grinding higher. The pair currently trades at 1.2815.

8-19 Economic Calendar Posted: 18 Aug 2010 08:49 PM PDT

Bollard on the wires… Posted: 18 Aug 2010 07:12 PM PDT RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard made the following statements: Economic recovery is gradual. GDP growth will continue. Underlying inflation pressure will increase. Firms shouldn’t base prices on GST spike. Underlying inflation pressure will increase. Firms should keep inflation anchored.

GBP/JPY Finding Resistance From 100 HR MAVG Posted: 18 Aug 2010 04:05 PM PDT The GBP/JPY has found resistance from the 100 hr moving average several times since last Friday, and in this thin market between U.S. and Asian trading sessions we will see if the pair can test the line again. It should also be noted on the hourly chart below that the pair has also found support both last week and this week around the 132.91 level.

New Zealand PPI Posted: 18 Aug 2010 03:47 PM PDT The market had a minimal reaction to New Zealand’s second quarter PPI, which came in better than expected. The details are as follows: PPI Input (q/q) - Survey: 0.6%   Actual: 1.1%   Prior: 1.3% PPI Output (q/q) - Survey: 0.7%   Actual: 1.4%   Prior: 1.8% The kiwi is currently trading off session lows against the USD and  AUD.

The markets still non-trending. Be aware for extensions as the week moves forward Posted: 18 Aug 2010 02:43 PM PDT

GBPUSD bases again and moving up. 1.5621-31 resistance Posted: 18 Aug 2010 10:48 AM PDT The GBPUSD held the 200 day MA earlier today. The surge higher on the back of MPC meeting minute relief, sent the pair toward the highs from yesterday.  Failure to take out the highs, sent the price back down and the pair fell below the 100 hour MA in the process (and old trendline channel).  In the last three hours the price has rebounded once again and looks toward resistance at 1.5621 (the underside of trendline resistance that was broken today but failed)  See chart below.   There is also resistance on the daily chart at the 1.5631 level (chart above).  A break of this area should lead to more clear sailing to the upside for the pair.

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