Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• The EURUSD rallies but not enough. Comes back down.
• SNB Hildebrand comments on newswires
• New Home Sales Fall, Along with House Price Index
• US New Home Sales Data due at 10AM
• The NY Morning Commentary: Weak data, has the dollar under some pressure
• USDJPY falls but not enough on weaker data. 84.07-14 eyed
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-August.25.2010
• Durable Goods weak…
• Very Weak Durable Goods Data
• Watch the 1.2605 level for the EURUSD this morning
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary: Key events, Key technical levels
• US Durable Goods Data Coming at 8:30AM
• German IFO Business Climate
• Usd/Jpy; good hourly resistance
• 8-25 Economic Calendar

The EURUSD rallies but not enough. Comes back down. Posted: 25 Aug 2010 07:28 AM PDT

SNB Hildebrand comments on newswires Posted: 25 Aug 2010 07:16 AM PDT Inflation remains a risk longer term Economic uncertainties remain high Not in a normal situation SNB does not have an exchange rate target Does not currently have deflation or inflation SNB would respond to deflationary risk Swiss growth may be weaker in the 2nd half of the year

New Home Sales Fall, Along with House Price Index Posted: 25 Aug 2010 07:03 AM PDT New Home Sales:        Survey: 330K           Actual: 275K           Prior: 330K         Revised: 315K New Home Sales(MoM):     Survey: 0.0%         Actual: -12.4%           Prior: 23.6%         Revised: 12.1% House Price Index (MoM):                         Survey: 0.1%    Actual:  -.3%     Prior:  0.5%    House Price Purachase Index (QoQ):    Survey: -0.4%         Actual: .9%         Prior: -1.9%       Month supply 9.1 this month vs 8.0 last month. Median Sale Price fell from $217,000 to $204,000 and the Mean Price also fell sharply to $235,300 from $248,300. These indicate not only is supply going up but prices are depressed as well.

US New Home Sales Data due at 10AM Posted: 25 Aug 2010 06:27 AM PDT

The NY Morning Commentary: Weak data, has the dollar under some pressure Posted: 25 Aug 2010 06:25 AM PDT

USDJPY falls but not enough on weaker data. 84.07-14 eyed Posted: 25 Aug 2010 06:04 AM PDT

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-August.25.2010 Posted: 25 Aug 2010 05:50 AM PDT Good Morning: Alert!: Durable Goods rises .3%-the data was expected to rise 3%. The data points to continued speculation that the economy is slowing. The JPY gave back some gains overnight as speculation mounts that the Japanese government will need to intervene to slow down the gains in the Yen. Any slight gains that the Euro had from yesterday were erased as the spread between Irish and German bonds hit the highest levels since May, 2010.  News from Germany that the IFO survey showed strength in the largest economy in Europe was good news for the EZ in general.  While data showed that the pace of growth may of slowed, the data also suggests that the region is in good standing to reach the GDP growth that they expect. World equity markets dropped again-and US Futures are also pointing to a lower opening this morning. Gold rose-and Oil is trading under $72/bar. Oil:$71.53                                     Gold:$1235.90   TIME FOR  EST PRIOR    REVISED 7:00A.M. MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS 20-Aug 13.00% 8:30A.M. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS JULY 3.00% -1.00% -1.20% 8:30A.M. DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION JULY 0.50% -0.60% -0.90% 8:30A.M. CAP GOODS ORDERS NONDEF EX AIR JULY 0.20% 8:30A.M. CAP GOODS SHIP NONDEF EX AIR JULY 0.50% 10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES  JULY 330K 330K 10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES MoM JULY 0.00% 23.60% 10:00A.M. HOUSE PRICE PURCHASE INDEX QoQ 2Q -0.40% -1.90% 10:00A.M. HOUSE PRICE INDEX MoM    JUNE 0.10% 0.50%   HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Durable Goods weak… Posted: 25 Aug 2010 05:34 AM PDT                                                 Durable Goods Orders  0.3%  vs -0.1%  Ex-transportation -3.8% vs   0.2%  Ex-defense   0.3% vs  0.2% Capital goods  -2.7% vs  0.2%  Non-defense -2.8%  vs 1.2%   ex-aircraft  -8.0% vs  3.6%   Defense   -2.2% vs -5.6% Shipments of NonDefense Capital Goods orders ex aircraft fell -1.5% after a 1.0% gain in June.  This goes into the GDP data for the 3rd quarter. Not a good start to the quarter.

Very Weak Durable Goods Data Posted: 25 Aug 2010 05:31 AM PDT Durable Goods Orders:   Survey: 3.0%      Actual: .3%     Prior:  -1.0%   Revised: -.1% Durables Ex Transportation:   Survey:  0.5%      Actual: -3.8%      Prior:  -0.6%   Revised: .2%

Watch the 1.2605 level for the EURUSD this morning Posted: 25 Aug 2010 05:26 AM PDT The 1.2605 level is the 50% of the move up from June low to the high. Yesterday we moved below the level on the way to the low at the 1.2586 level.  A move below these levels this morning will next target the 1.2549 area. In early July when the price was last at this level, the market used this level as support and resistance (see chart below) If the 1.2605 level holds support, the upside progressive targets would look to get through the 1.2645, then 1.2662 and 1.2682.  The EURUSD fell below the 100 day MA last Friday. Staying below this moving average line keeps the bearish long term bias in tact for the pair.  That level comes in at the 1.2744 level today. The high today reached 1.2725.  Was that the test?  Stay below the resistance levels outlined above and the downside remains in charge in the short term as well.

The NY Opening Forex Commentary: Key events, Key technical levels Posted: 25 Aug 2010 05:08 AM PDT

US Durable Goods Data Coming at 8:30AM Posted: 25 Aug 2010 05:08 AM PDT

German IFO Business Climate Posted: 25 Aug 2010 01:03 AM PDT German IFO Business Climate came in at 106.7, stronger than the 105.7 expected. Current Assessment came in at 108.2, stronger than the 107.5 expected. Expectations came in at 105.2, stronger than the 104.3 expected. Strong numbers for the Euro as Eur/Usd jumped up to 1.2720 on newss.

Usd/Jpy; good hourly resistance Posted: 24 Aug 2010 09:26 PM PDT Usd/Jpy is trading near the 38.2% fibo retracement of move down from 85.80 to 83.56. The pair is having a hard time breaking above this resistance line and seems to be under some pressure. Light support around 84.10-15 level. Tough to have confidence in any support line, so i look for 83.56 to be target for short covering. If the pair braks above the 50% fibo at 84.68 should lend more resistance.

8-25 Economic Calendar Posted: 24 Aug 2010 08:50 PM PDT

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