Monday, October 31, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Chicago Purchasing Manager 58.4 vs 59.0 Survey and Prior of 60.4

Posted: 31 Oct 2011 06:46 AM PDT

The Forex Week Ahead for October 31st 2011

Posted: 31 Oct 2011 06:20 AM PDT

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-October.31.2011

Posted: 31 Oct 2011 05:49 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervened in the FX markets as the USD/JPY came very close to breaching the 75.00 barrier at the start of Asian trading.  The pair moved about 300 points after the announcement. With the vital export business again in jeopardy with the USD/JPY at 75, the BOJ needed to move, as they have been talking about intervening for weeks.
The JPY moved quickly, but shortly thereafter gave back some of the momentum that had been established just after the intervention.  Comments from BOJ officials seem to indicate that  intervention will need to continue.
 
The EUR/USD pair sold off, and dropped though the key 1.40 level overnight.  With doubts rising about the effectiveness of the EFSF European rescue plan-the pair took a bit of a licking.
The ECB was seen in the marketplace again last night buying Italian and Spanish debt.

Dow Futures are lower-along with gold and oil.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK
 

 

 

Canada Showing Good Numbers

Posted: 31 Oct 2011 05:32 AM PDT

Industrial Production Price Index MoM:    Survey:  0.2%    Actual: 0.4%    Prior:  0.5%   Revised: 0.4%

Raw Materials Price Index:      Survey: -1.9%   Actual:  1.4%     Prior: -3.2%    

Domestic Product (MoM):   Survey:  0.2%  Actual: 0.3%   Prior: 0.3%  Revised: 0.4%

Gross Domestic Product (YoY):  Survey: 2.2%  Actual: 2.4%   Prior: 2.3%  Revised: 2.4%

USDJPY breaks above the 78.00 level and scoots higher

Posted: 31 Oct 2011 05:17 AM PDT

The 78.00 is the 38.2% of the days range. A break above led to the price scooting higher.  The 77.83 is the 100 day MA.  The market traders will be watching these levels on the downside today. Stay above and the bullishness can continue.

With Japanese exporters selling on the rally higher today, one must be cognizant that the businesses the BOJ is trying to help are the sellers of the USDJPY above.  So we may continue to see more two way flows in the pair.  I will be watching the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart for clues (this is the next target above). That level currently comes in at the 78,57 level.

 

NY Morning Forex for October 31st 2011

Posted: 31 Oct 2011 04:59 AM PDT

Canada Industrial Product Price, Raw Materials Price Index, Gross Domestic Data Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 31 Oct 2011 04:09 AM PDT

Eurozone unemployment rate (Sep) 10.2% vs 10.0%.

Posted: 31 Oct 2011 03:24 AM PDT

Greek retail sales (Aug) -1.5% vs. -4.3% prior.

Posted: 31 Oct 2011 03:23 AM PDT

UK mortgage approvals (Sep) 51K vs. 50.6K expected.

Posted: 31 Oct 2011 02:38 AM PDT

Euro tests 38.2% on 15 minute chart

Posted: 31 Oct 2011 02:16 AM PDT

After the sell-off earlier the pair rebounded back up to 1.40489, but found resistance at this level. It also appears that there is currently support at 1.3987.

UBS cuts Euro area 2012 GDP forecsat to 0.2% from 1%, and forecasts a recession in H1 of 2012.

Posted: 31 Oct 2011 12:25 AM PDT

Adds that Japan’s FX action is based on teh G20 agreement that excessive and disorderly FX moves are undesirale.

BOJ’s Shirakawa says he hopes JPY sale will help stabilize FX markets, adding that the strong JPY is spillover from EU fiscal woes.

Posted: 31 Oct 2011 12:15 AM PDT

German retail sales (Sep) 0.4% vs. 1.0% expected.

Posted: 31 Oct 2011 12:01 AM PDT

Kiwi finding support at .80761

Posted: 30 Oct 2011 11:49 PM PDT

Most of the risk currencies have been showing some signs of a rebound after selling off earlier today. In the case of the NZD/USD the pair found support at the 50.0% fibo line on the move from the October 26th low to the high on the 28th; we also find the 100 hour moving average at this level. We are currently testing the 38.2% to the topside, the next target higher is .81623.
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Saturday, October 29, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Week Ahead in Forex with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell this Monday 9:30 AM

Posted: 28 Oct 2011 09:21 AM PDT

Week Ahead in Forex with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell this Monday 9:30 AM – Register now

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Friday, October 28, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

University of Michigan Confidence Better Than Expected at 60.9 From a Survey of 58.0 and a Prior of 57.5

Posted: 28 Oct 2011 06:55 AM PDT

Forex Weekend Wrap up TODAY at 11:00AM with Greg and Shawn

Posted: 28 Oct 2011 06:29 AM PDT

Forex Weekend Wrap up TODAY at 11:00AM with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell – Register now

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-October.28.2011

Posted: 28 Oct 2011 05:41 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The Forex markets were in consolidation mode in overnight trading after yesterday’s 200 point rally in the EUR/USD pair after the EU summit.
China is now in the forefront, as the leaders of the EFSF are in Asia looking for commitments of capital for the fund.
Reports show that China already has a 600 Billion Euro stake in the region-so it seems likely that they will have interest in continuing to support the European credit markets.
In other European news-Spain’s unemployment rate rose to a 15 year high-climbing above 21 percent.  This is the highest level in the Euro Zone, and most certainly puts a damper on any recovery in the regions 4th largest economy.
The GBP took advantage of the nervous markets and rose-as investors look at UK assets for relative safety.

Asian equity markets rose-as European equity markets were lower-and US Futures are lower at this time.
Oil, gold, and silver are all lower at this time.

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

US Data Released Weaker

Posted: 28 Oct 2011 05:33 AM PDT

Employment Cost Index:   Survey: 0.6%     Actual:  0.3%    Prior:  0.7%   

Personal Income:   Survey: 0.3%     Actual:  0.1%    Prior: -0.1%   

Personal Spending:   Survey: 0.6%    Actual: 0.6%  Prior: 0.2% 

PCE Deflator:    Survey: 3.0%  Actual:  2.9%   Prior: 2.9%

PCE Core(MoM):     Survey: 0.1%   Actual:  0.0%    Prior: 0.1%  Revised: 0.2%

PCE Core(YoY):    Survey:  1.7%   Actual:  1.6%   Prior:  1.6%  Revised: 1.7%

Fitch says 50% haircut would be a default event

Posted: 28 Oct 2011 04:32 AM PDT

  • Adds that downward ratings on sovereigns is to persist
  • The post debt Greek rating will likely be B or lower
  • Debt to peak at 143% of GDP in 2013

EURUSD moves lower on the news headline

US Personal Income, Spending & Employment Cost Index Data Due at 8:30am

Posted: 28 Oct 2011 04:21 AM PDT

EU wants an FX rate pledge from China at the G-20 meeting, according to and EU official.

Posted: 28 Oct 2011 02:49 AM PDT

Swiss KOF leading indicator (Oct) 0.80 vs. 1.00 expected.

Posted: 28 Oct 2011 02:48 AM PDT

EUR/JPY testing support @ 107.336

Posted: 28 Oct 2011 02:45 AM PDT

Since the end of yesterday’s trading day, the EUR/JPY has been recieving support from 107.336 where we currently find both the 38.2% fibo line and the 100 bar moving average.

Analysts at Investec say ECB will cut rates by 25 bps next week.

Posted: 28 Oct 2011 02:38 AM PDT

EUR/USD consolidating between 1.41611 and 1.41934

Posted: 28 Oct 2011 02:33 AM PDT

Seen on the 15 minute chart, the pair has traded between these two levels today; testing support and resistance but not able to break out. The first level lower we have the 100 bar moving average at 1.41503 and to the topside we look to 1.42457.

Eurozone Q2 household savings rate rises to 13.9% vs. 13.6% in Q1.

Posted: 28 Oct 2011 02:02 AM PDT

USD/CHF developing short-term trend line support

Posted: 28 Oct 2011 01:16 AM PDT

The pair is developing a bullish support line since the end of yesterday; currently testing resistance from the 100 bar moving average and 38.2% line. In the case of a break higher through .86409, we look to the 50.0% at the next target.

Goldman Sachs economists say a Chinese reserve requirement cut is unlikely, may grow 8.6% in 2012.

Posted: 28 Oct 2011 12:49 AM PDT

  • China reserve requirement cut is unlikely.

China vice fin. minister sayas sees China as an important investor in the EFSF.

Posted: 28 Oct 2011 12:47 AM PDT
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Thursday, October 27, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Charting the Majors with James Chen – Webinar Rebroadcast

Posted: 27 Oct 2011 07:40 AM PDT

Charting the Majors with James Chen

Please click on the following link to access the rebroadcast of today’s Charting the Majors with James Chen. This webinar featured the current technical outlook on the major currency pairs in an interactive and educational session. Please click here to access: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/180063240 .

EURUSD support at 1.4097 remains key level.

Posted: 27 Oct 2011 07:36 AM PDT

The EURUSD has found sellers above.  The 1.4054 level has slowed the increase. However, the downside remains supported as well.  Specifically, the 1.4097 will be eyed by traders. The level is the 38.2% of the last leg higher.  I like to test the sellers to see if they can push the pair below the 38.2% of the most recent trend surge.  A failure to break this level is a signal that the bulls remain in control. The second reason the level is important is it is bull flag channel support (see chart above).  Finally, the level is the also where the 200 day MA is at today (see green line in chart below).  

If the sellers/profit takers cannot take the price below this level, the bulls remain in charge. 

USDCHF falls below trendline support and selling intensifies

Posted: 27 Oct 2011 07:18 AM PDT

 

 The USDCHF fell below the 200 day MA and selling intensified. The pair has slowed somewhat by channel trendline support and also near the low from the September 15th low (see daily chart below) . This was the lowest level after the first trend move post SNB intervention. 

Greece will save 4.5 billion Euros per year on debt write down: Greek official

Posted: 27 Oct 2011 07:13 AM PDT

The Forex Traders Course with Greg Michalowski 4:00 PM EDT. See you there!

Posted: 27 Oct 2011 07:02 AM PDT

Traders Course webinar with Greg Michalowski, Thursday at 4:00 PM. Join Shawn Powell and I for an informative training on Forex trading. We will share strategies and ways to deal with the current uncertainty in the markets surrounding Greece and the EU.  You will learn a lot in the class today. Register now

Horrific Pending Home Sales Data

Posted: 27 Oct 2011 07:01 AM PDT

Pending Home Sales (MoM):    Survey:  0.4%    Actual: -4.6%    Prior:  -1.2%    

Sept vs Aug 2011
Seasonally Adjusted(MoM%)
U.S: -4.6% vs  -1.2%
Northeast:  -4.7% vs -5.8%
Midwest:  -6.2% vs -3.7%
South:  -5.5% vs 2.6%
West: -2.1% vs  -2.4%

Level Change
U.S:  -4.1 vs  -1.1
Northeast: -3.0 vs  -3.9
Midwest: -4.7 vs -2.9
South:  -5.3  vs 2.5
West:  -2.3 vs -2.7

Unadjusted (YoY%) Change
U.S:  7.9% vs 13.1%
Northeast: 2.6% vs 7.9%
Midwest: 13.0% vs 14.4%
South: 5.5% vs 11.1%
West: 9.7% vs 17.0%

Level Change
U.S:  84.5 vs  88.6
Northeast: 60.6 vs 63.6
Midwest: 71.5  vs 76.2
South: 91.6 vs 96.9
West:  105.8 vs 108.1

Pending Home Sales (YoY):   Survey: 12.6%  Actual: 7.9%     Prior:  13.1%

GBPUSD above 100 day MA a 1.6033

Posted: 27 Oct 2011 06:51 AM PDT

The GBPUSD has moved above the 100 day MA at the 1.6033. Staying above is bullish for the pair today. The high so far has come in at the 1.6082. It is back down near the 1.6050 level. On the topside the next target comes in at the top trendline a tthe 1.6094 level (see chart below).    ON the downside the 1.6040 level was the high reached yesterday. It and the 100 dayMA at the 1.6033 level is the support area for the pair. Staying above keeps the bulls in charge. Moving below, may be a sign the top is in place and should neutralize the market a bit at least.

EURUSD breaks above the 100 and 200 day MA and scoots higher

Posted: 27 Oct 2011 06:26 AM PDT

The EURUSD moved above the 100 and 200 day SMA at the 1.4175 and 1.4197 levels and ignited further short covering. The pair is trading near the highs now at the 1.4145 area. The 1.4154 area has been a level that the market has used a number of times over the last 6 or so months of trading as support (see arrows above). This is my next target on the topside.  A level above that comes in at the 1.4209 level which is the underside of the trendline that comes up from the June 2010 low.

Support for the pair now comes in 1.4097. This is the 200 day MA and also the 38.2% of the last leg higher in the pair.  In addition to being the 200 day MA it is also currently the 38.2% of the last leg higher. That retracement level can change if the price makes a new high.  So adjust.  

The price has moved up at an unsustainable pace, but trends are fast and directional and have ranges outside the normal range (low was 1.3863 and high has been 1.4145 so far or 282 pips)   That is what we are seeing here today.  The bulls remain in control.

EURUSD continues upward move

Posted: 27 Oct 2011 06:01 AM PDT

The 1.4075 level is the 100 day MA for the pair. The 200 day MA is at 1.4097. Two key levels for the EURUSD today

 

US Pending Home Sales Expected To Be a Positive Number

Posted: 27 Oct 2011 06:00 AM PDT

USDJPY moves to new lows. Test trend line at 75.66.

Posted: 27 Oct 2011 05:52 AM PDT

The USDJPY fell to new lows after the GDP report (not sure why, but the market may be offsides). The price low came in at the 75.66 level. The level corresponded with the bottom trendline on the hourly chart (see below). 

 

Below that level, 75.54 is another level off the Daily chart. Below that, there is not much support for the pair.

ECB Weidmann says Greek haircut will improve its ability to cope with debt load

Posted: 27 Oct 2011 05:44 AM PDT

  • EU summit decisions should mean risks for monetary policy are reduced
  • EFSF not being refinance through ECB was positive decision
  • Still unclear how to view Greek measures and unclear how haircut will be implemented
  • 5 billion needed for German banks as per summit agreement

Consumption better 2.4% vs 1.9%. GDP on target at 2.5%.

Posted: 27 Oct 2011 05:32 AM PDT

  • Consumption 2.4% (1.7% of the 2.5%)
  • Private Investment 4.1% (0.52% of the 2.5%)
  • Government: 0.0% (0% of the 2.5%.  Federal 2%, State and Local -1.3%)
  • Exports +4.0%, Import +1.9%.  NOTE: The Commerce department assumed high imports and exports in their first estimate (Net exports contributed 0.22% of the 2.5%)

Other details:

  • Inventories (part of Investments) rose by 5.4 billion which is virtually unchanged after a 39.1 billion increase last quarter. (Inventories subtracted 1.08% from the 2.5%)
  • Real FInal sales rose by 3.6% vs 1.6% in Q2

The GDP was pretty solid it seems. Most of the gains were from the consumer. Inventories took over 1% from the number. If those inventories are replenished down the road, growth could be stronger. Government and Net exports did nothing for growth.   Investment added a small 0.52% vs 0.79% last quarter. 

Initial Claims as expected.

The EURUSD has moved a touch higher on the data. The 1.4075 is the 100 day MA, while the 1.4097 is the 200 day MA.

US GDP Data Slightly Better

Posted: 27 Oct 2011 05:31 AM PDT

(Annualized):   Survey: 2.5%   Actual: 2.5%   Prior: 1.3%  

Personal Consumption:   Survey: 1.9%   Actual: 2.4%   Prior: 0.7%  

GDP Price Index:   Survey: 2.4%   Actual: 2.5%   Prior: 2.5%  

Core PCE QoQ:   Survey: 2.2%   Actual: 2.1%   Prior: 2.3%

Jobless Claims:  Survey: 401K  Actual: 402K  Prior: 403K  Revised: 404K

Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3700K  Actual: 3641K  Prior: 3719K  Revisad: 3741K

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for October 27th 2011

Posted: 27 Oct 2011 05:13 AM PDT
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Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

EU official says leader may frame agenda for bank talks

Posted: 26 Oct 2011 07:18 AM PDT

EURUSD falls below low for the day.

Posted: 26 Oct 2011 07:11 AM PDT

 The low floor area going back to yesterday afternoon at the 1.3892 level  has been broken.  On the 5 minute chart above, the 1.3876 is the next target followed by the low from yesterdays trade at the 1.3847. Before that level, however is the 100 hour MA at the 1.3864 (see blue line in the chart below). This level should find some profit taking buyers on the 1st test. A break below the level should not be ignored however.

US New Home Sales Improve Slightly

Posted: 26 Oct 2011 07:07 AM PDT

New Home Sales:   Survey: 300K     Actual: 313K     Prior: 295K      Revised:  296K

New Home Sales (MoM):  Survey: 1.7%     Actual:  5.7%     Prior: -2.3%     Revised:  -0.3%

EURUSD falls back below the 1.3952-58 and traders exit longs/sell

Posted: 26 Oct 2011 06:36 AM PDT

The price is back in the main range  for the day with the 1.3933 level now the midpoint of the days range.

EU Juncker says Italy knows it must take considerable consolidation measures

Posted: 26 Oct 2011 06:35 AM PDT

  • Overall direction of crisis package must be decided today

Ask the Chartist with James Chen – Webinar Today at 10:00 AM ET

Posted: 26 Oct 2011 06:21 AM PDT

Ask the Chartist with James Chen

Please join us today (Wednesday, October 26) at 10:00 AM ET for FXDD’s Ask the Chartist with James Chen. This free webinar will feature answers to questions from the audience regarding forex trading, technical analysis, and trading strategies. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/846440832 .

US New Home Sales Data Due at 10AM

Posted: 26 Oct 2011 06:18 AM PDT

Lower house of German Parliament passes vote to back leverage EFSF

Posted: 26 Oct 2011 06:16 AM PDT

The EURUSD has shot higher and extended the range for the EURUSD.  THe high on the spike reached 1.3973. The old highs at the 1.3951-59 will be eyed on the downside now for support. If the price moves below these levels look for disappointment to set in. 

 

EURUSD stuck. Narrow range. Up and down. Little conviction. EU still awaited.

Posted: 26 Oct 2011 05:53 AM PDT

The EURUSD is stuck with little movement.

Crude oil is down -0.54 cents
S&P is up 8.6
DJ Futures are up 82 points
Gold is up $9.00
Copper is up strong (2.18%) 7.55 cents

The range for the day is narrow with a low to high range of 1.3892 to 1.39515.  The 60 pip range is likely to be extended at some point today.  The midpoint of the range is 1.3922.  On the topside the 1.3950 level needs to be broken to push higher. ON the downside the 1.3905 level is the bottom trendline intraday. 

Overall, if a poll was taken the market would likely vote for the EURUSD to go down. The uncertainty about Greece, Italy, EU should lead to lower prices.  The problem is that despite the expectations, the pair is still trading near the highest level since the 1st few weeks of September and remains above the midpoint of the 2 month range at the 1.3846 level (see chart below).  There is a standoff here that has the market traders waiting for clues. 

Better US Durable Goods Orders has little impact

Posted: 26 Oct 2011 05:36 AM PDT

The headline came in at -0.8% but the Ex Transportation comes in at 1.7%. Capital Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air come in at 2.4%. The inventories of Manufactured goods increased by 0.1% for the 21st consecutive month increase. The inventory level was the highest level since 1992 when statistics were first introduced.

SHipments of Non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 0.9%. This is used in the calculation of GDP. Last month it rose 3.1% (revised higher).

The data had bright spots but it seems the market is not all that impressed with a negative headline number nor the measures that will directly effect GDP.

US Durable Goods Orders Improve

Posted: 26 Oct 2011 05:32 AM PDT

Durable Goods Orders:   Survey: -1.0%    Actual: -0.8%    Prior: -0.1%  

Durables Ex Transportation:   Survey: 0.4%   Actual:  1.7%   Prior: -0.1%   Revised:  -0.4%

Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air:   Survey:  0.5%     Actual:   2.4%    Prior:  1.1%     Revised: 0.5%

Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air:    Actual:  -0.9%    Prior:  2.8%   Revised: 3.1%

The NY Opening Forex Commentary for October 26th 2011

Posted: 26 Oct 2011 05:19 AM PDT

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-October.26.2011

Posted: 26 Oct 2011 05:14 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The markets have been sitting on the edge of their seats-as the leaders of the Euro Zone meet today to once again hammer out the debt crisis that is plaguing Europe and has attributed to the global economic meltdown.  This is the 14th “crisis summit” in 21 months, and starts today with the gathering of all 27 European leaders after noon (EST).  The biggest flaw in the plan is that a meeting of Euro Zone Finance Ministers that was set for after the “summit” has been cancelled with no timetable being announced for the resumption of this meeting.
Greece, who received 110 billion euros in a bailout last year, and needs more again this year, is hoping that bond investors are willing to accept losses as high as 50-60%.  The Greek government is looking for another 109 billion euros this year.

 This morning we have Durable Goods orders data out of North America.  The guesstimate is that we will see a drop of .7 to 1%, after Durable Goods dropped .1% last month.

Most world equity indexes were higher, as were most commodity markets.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

CNBC says 50% haircut is a done deal

Posted: 26 Oct 2011 05:00 AM PDT

Being reported now.

IMF source reported to say did not rule out a haircut of 70-75%

Posted: 26 Oct 2011 04:46 AM PDT

This is unconfirmed but apparantely similar to an earlier comment.
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