Monday, October 3, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

ISM Improves Along with Construction Spending

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 07:02 AM PDT

Construction Spending MoM:  Survey:  -0.2%    Actual:  1.4%    Prior:  -1.3%  Revised:  %

ISM Manufacturing:   Survey: 50.5    Actual: 51.6     Prior:  50.6

September vs August 2011
Prices Paid: 56.0 vs 55.5
Production:  51.2 vs 48.6
New Orders:   49.6 vs 49.6
Backlog of Orders:  41.5 vs 46.0
Inventory Change:  52.0 vs 52.3
Employment: 53.8 vs 51.8 

ISM Prices Paid:   Survey: 54.8  Actual: 56.0   Prior:  55.5

EURUSD moves higher on initial reaction to ISM index

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 07:01 AM PDT

Construction spending also better.

For the EURUSD, the 1.3341 level is where the 100 and 200 bar on the 5 minute chart is found.  A move above is needed to scare the short who have seemed comfortable in the NY session.  Above the 1.3341 is the 1.3361 (low from September 26th), 1.3384 (low from September 22nd) and 1.3394 (gap from Friday).  The 1.34077 is the 50% of the move up from the June 2010 low to the May 2011 high.

GBPUSD hanging around daily 50% Fibo level

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 06:15 AM PDT

The GBPUSD has been testing the 50% of  the move up from the May 2010 at the 1.54868 level today. The price has moved below it on three separate occasions (see hourly chart below) and each time, the move has found buyers. The most recent in the last hour of trading, saw a new low at the 1.5479 level.  The price is still staying around the level.  So a further decline is still possible.  There is further support against the 61.8% of the move up from the September 22nd low at the 1.54733 level. A break opens the door for further declines in the pair

On the topside today, 1.5519 is the midpoint of the recent move up from the 22nd low to the high reached on last Thursday.  It is also near the 100bar MA on the 5 minute chart (see 5 minute chart below).  A move above that will target the 200 hour MA at the 1.5549 level.

 

The GBPUSD was boosted by better UK PMI data this morning. However, that move higher found willing sellers which pushed the price back to the lows and support levels. 

 

The Forex Week Ahead Calendar of Releases and Events

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 06:04 AM PDT

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.3.2011

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 06:00 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Fears of a default by Greece has pushed the Euro to a 8 month low versus the USD.  The Euro’s decline was it’s steepest since June 2010.
Questions regarding Greece’s ability to secure additional bailout funds on the heels of fresh budget cuts made by the Greek government are on the forefront of most investors thoughts these days. 
The main issue is that weak growth prospects in Greece’s economy, along with additional cuts in Greek government spending, and additional taxes being placed on the Greek population are all leading to economic failure.
The cost of an EU bailout, along with keeping the debt crisis from spreading larger will not only take a lot of time-it will take a lot of money-most certainly more than the 440 billion Euros that have been agreed to so far.
In other European banking news-Dexia Bank -the French-Belgian Bank has been placed on a downgrade watch by Moody’s.
Moody’s already downgraded Soc Gen and Credit Agricole’s long term rating in September.  This just adds to the woes of the French Banking sector-which is rumored to be exposed to Greek debt in a big way.

World equity markets were and are mostly lower-at this time-and US Futures are pointing to a lower opening this morning.

Gold and silver are higher-Oil is lower at this time.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US Construction Spending, ISM Data Due at 10AM

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 05:46 AM PDT

NY Morning Forex Commentary for October 3rd 2011

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 05:04 AM PDT

Feds Fisher on CNBC ; Major comments

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 04:22 AM PDT

  • Fed has limited amount of ammunition
  • Operation twist impact is not that great
  • He does not feel benefits outweigh costs
  • Total uncertainty currently
  • Activity is not robust but not declining
  • Positive growth but anemic growth through year end. Less than 3% until the next of year
  • Businesses are uncertain.
  • All businesses are frozen with the uncertainty
  • What businesses know is rates will remain low.
  • Underestimated economic growth, infaltion is higher than expected.
  • Sees infaltion trending toward 2%
  • Question is With rates so low, are they effective? DO they create jobs? 
  • Fed Faces moral action if they continue action.

Fisher is from Texas and is a hawk. He is one of the dissenters on the Fed Open Market Committee.

IMF’s Zhu says Europe is making progress on debt problems, situation is more stable than before.

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 02:27 AM PDT

Kiwi testing resistance at .76277

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 01:52 AM PDT

After receiving short term support from .76054 the NZD/USD traded down to .75716, but has since rebounded and is currently testing resistance at .76277 where we find both the 100 bar moving average and the 50.0% line on the move from Friday’s high to today’s low of .75716. If we can move higher through this level our next target is .76409.

UK manufacturing PMI (Sept) 51.1 vs. 48.6 expected.

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 01:33 AM PDT

It seems that the market initially read the release wrong selling the GBP/USD 100 points lower down to 1.54818, but rebounded immediately and traded up to our previously stated target at the 50.0% line. The pair back trading around 1.5519.

Eurozone manufacturing PMI (Sept) 48.5 vs. 48.4 expected (49.0 prior) – lowest since August 2009.

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 01:02 AM PDT

IMF official says some slowing in Chinese economic growth is warranted.

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 12:58 AM PDT

Cable grinding higher

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 12:56 AM PDT

The USD has slowly depreciated through out the night with no drastic movements. After finding a low of 1.54883, the GBP/USD has slowly rebounded with the first topside target being 1.55553; further higher we look to 1.5576.

 

Swiss manufacturing PMI (Sept) 48.2 vs. 50.5 expected.

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 12:33 AM PDT
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