Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Charting the Majors with James Chen – Webinar Rebroadcast
• EURUSD support at 1.4097 remains key level.
• USDCHF falls below trendline support and selling intensifies
• Greece will save 4.5 billion Euros per year on debt write down: Greek official
• The Forex Traders Course with Greg Michalowski 4:00 PM EDT. See you there!
• Horrific Pending Home Sales Data
• GBPUSD above 100 day MA a 1.6033
• EURUSD breaks above the 100 and 200 day MA and scoots higher
• EURUSD continues upward move
• US Pending Home Sales Expected To Be a Positive Number
• USDJPY moves to new lows. Test trend line at 75.66.
• ECB Weidmann says Greek haircut will improve its ability to cope with debt load
• Consumption better 2.4% vs 1.9%. GDP on target at 2.5%.
• US GDP Data Slightly Better
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary for October 27th 2011

Charting the Majors with James Chen – Webinar Rebroadcast Posted: 27 Oct 2011 07:40 AM PDT Please click on the following link to access the rebroadcast of today’s Charting the Majors with James Chen. This webinar featured the current technical outlook on the major currency pairs in an interactive and educational session. Please click here to access: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/180063240 .

EURUSD support at 1.4097 remains key level. Posted: 27 Oct 2011 07:36 AM PDT The EURUSD has found sellers above.  The 1.4054 level has slowed the increase. However, the downside remains supported as well.  Specifically, the 1.4097 will be eyed by traders. The level is the 38.2% of the last leg higher.  I like to test the sellers to see if they can push the pair below the 38.2% of the most recent trend surge.  A failure to break this level is a signal that the bulls remain in control. The second reason the level is important is it is bull flag channel support (see chart above).  Finally, the level is the also where the 200 day MA is at today (see green line in chart below).   If the sellers/profit takers cannot take the price below this level, the bulls remain in charge.

USDCHF falls below trendline support and selling intensifies Posted: 27 Oct 2011 07:18 AM PDT    The USDCHF fell below the 200 day MA and selling intensified. The pair has slowed somewhat by channel trendline support and also near the low from the September 15th low (see daily chart below) . This was the lowest level after the first trend move post SNB intervention.

Greece will save 4.5 billion Euros per year on debt write down: Greek official Posted: 27 Oct 2011 07:13 AM PDT

The Forex Traders Course with Greg Michalowski 4:00 PM EDT. See you there! Posted: 27 Oct 2011 07:02 AM PDT Traders Course webinar with Greg Michalowski, Thursday at 4:00 PM. Join Shawn Powell and I for an informative training on Forex trading. We will share strategies and ways to deal with the current uncertainty in the markets surrounding Greece and the EU.  You will learn a lot in the class today. Register now

Horrific Pending Home Sales Data Posted: 27 Oct 2011 07:01 AM PDT Pending Home Sales (MoM):    Survey:  0.4%    Actual: -4.6%    Prior:  -1.2%     Sept vs Aug 2011 Seasonally Adjusted(MoM%) U.S: -4.6% vs  -1.2% Northeast:  -4.7% vs -5.8% Midwest:  -6.2% vs -3.7% South:  -5.5% vs 2.6% West: -2.1% vs  -2.4% Level Change U.S:  -4.1 vs  -1.1 Northeast: -3.0 vs  -3.9 Midwest: -4.7 vs -2.9 South:  -5.3  vs 2.5 West:  -2.3 vs -2.7 Unadjusted (YoY%) Change U.S:  7.9% vs 13.1% Northeast: 2.6% vs 7.9% Midwest: 13.0% vs 14.4% South: 5.5% vs 11.1% West: 9.7% vs 17.0% Level Change U.S:  84.5 vs  88.6 Northeast: 60.6 vs 63.6 Midwest: 71.5  vs 76.2 South: 91.6 vs 96.9 West:  105.8 vs 108.1 Pending Home Sales (YoY):   Survey: 12.6%  Actual: 7.9%     Prior:  13.1%

GBPUSD above 100 day MA a 1.6033 Posted: 27 Oct 2011 06:51 AM PDT The GBPUSD has moved above the 100 day MA at the 1.6033. Staying above is bullish for the pair today. The high so far has come in at the 1.6082. It is back down near the 1.6050 level. On the topside the next target comes in at the top trendline a tthe 1.6094 level (see chart below).    ON the downside the 1.6040 level was the high reached yesterday. It and the 100 dayMA at the 1.6033 level is the support area for the pair. Staying above keeps the bulls in charge. Moving below, may be a sign the top is in place and should neutralize the market a bit at least.

EURUSD breaks above the 100 and 200 day MA and scoots higher Posted: 27 Oct 2011 06:26 AM PDT The EURUSD moved above the 100 and 200 day SMA at the 1.4175 and 1.4197 levels and ignited further short covering. The pair is trading near the highs now at the 1.4145 area. The 1.4154 area has been a level that the market has used a number of times over the last 6 or so months of trading as support (see arrows above). This is my next target on the topside.  A level above that comes in at the 1.4209 level which is the underside of the trendline that comes up from the June 2010 low. Support for the pair now comes in 1.4097. This is the 200 day MA and also the 38.2% of the last leg higher in the pair.  In addition to being the 200 day MA it is also currently the 38.2% of the last leg higher. That retracement level can change if the price makes a new high.  So adjust.   The price has moved up at an unsustainable pace, but trends are fast and directional and have ranges outside the normal range (low was 1.3863 and high has been 1.4145 so far or 282 pips)   That is what we are seeing here today.  The bulls remain in control.

EURUSD continues upward move Posted: 27 Oct 2011 06:01 AM PDT The 1.4075 level is the 100 day MA for the pair. The 200 day MA is at 1.4097. Two key levels for the EURUSD today

US Pending Home Sales Expected To Be a Positive Number Posted: 27 Oct 2011 06:00 AM PDT

USDJPY moves to new lows. Test trend line at 75.66. Posted: 27 Oct 2011 05:52 AM PDT The USDJPY fell to new lows after the GDP report (not sure why, but the market may be offsides). The price low came in at the 75.66 level. The level corresponded with the bottom trendline on the hourly chart (see below).    Below that level, 75.54 is another level off the Daily chart. Below that, there is not much support for the pair.

ECB Weidmann says Greek haircut will improve its ability to cope with debt load Posted: 27 Oct 2011 05:44 AM PDT EU summit decisions should mean risks for monetary policy are reduced EFSF not being refinance through ECB was positive decision Still unclear how to view Greek measures and unclear how haircut will be implemented 5 billion needed for German banks as per summit agreement

Consumption better 2.4% vs 1.9%. GDP on target at 2.5%. Posted: 27 Oct 2011 05:32 AM PDT Consumption 2.4% (1.7% of the 2.5%) Private Investment 4.1% (0.52% of the 2.5%) Government: 0.0% (0% of the 2.5%.  Federal 2%, State and Local -1.3%) Exports +4.0%, Import +1.9%.  NOTE: The Commerce department assumed high imports and exports in their first estimate (Net exports contributed 0.22% of the 2.5%) Other details: Inventories (part of Investments) rose by 5.4 billion which is virtually unchanged after a 39.1 billion increase last quarter. (Inventories subtracted 1.08% from the 2.5%) Real FInal sales rose by 3.6% vs 1.6% in Q2 The GDP was pretty solid it seems. Most of the gains were from the consumer. Inventories took over 1% from the number. If those inventories are replenished down the road, growth could be stronger. Government and Net exports did nothing for growth.   Investment added a small 0.52% vs 0.79% last quarter.  Initial Claims as expected. The EURUSD has moved a touch higher on the data. The 1.4075 is the 100 day MA, while the 1.4097 is the 200 day MA.

US GDP Data Slightly Better Posted: 27 Oct 2011 05:31 AM PDT (Annualized):   Survey: 2.5%   Actual: 2.5%   Prior: 1.3%   Personal Consumption:   Survey: 1.9%   Actual: 2.4%   Prior: 0.7%   GDP Price Index:   Survey: 2.4%   Actual: 2.5%   Prior: 2.5%   Core PCE QoQ:   Survey: 2.2%   Actual: 2.1%   Prior: 2.3% Jobless Claims:  Survey: 401K  Actual: 402K  Prior: 403K  Revised: 404K Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3700K  Actual: 3641K  Prior: 3719K  Revisad: 3741K

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for October 27th 2011 Posted: 27 Oct 2011 05:13 AM PDT

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