Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- EURUSD moves back to the topside trendline
- Feds Fisher says too many people are unemployed for too long
- US Wholesale Inventories Weaker 0.4% vs Projected 0.6% and a Prior of 0.8%
- Australian Financial Review says RBA mulling rate cut
- USDCHF between support (38.2% retracement) and resistance (100 hour MA)
- GBPUSD rotates back down as employment digested
- EURUSD moves higher on the better employment report
- US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise 103K, Private Sector Also Stronger
- US NFP 103k, Private Payroll 137K UnE 9.1%
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.7.2011
- Support/Resistance targets for major pairs
- US Unemployment Preview with key technical levels to eye
- Nonfarm, Private Payrolls & Unemployment Figures Due at 8:30AM
- Canada adds a surprising 60.9K jobs. USDCAD moves to 38.2% retracement
- Canada Unemployment due at 7 AM ET
| EURUSD moves back to the topside trendline Posted: 07 Oct 2011 07:22 AM PDT
The topside trendline comes in currently at the 1.3507 level. Watch this level closely. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Feds Fisher says too many people are unemployed for too long Posted: 07 Oct 2011 07:20 AM PDT
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| US Wholesale Inventories Weaker 0.4% vs Projected 0.6% and a Prior of 0.8% Posted: 07 Oct 2011 07:02 AM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Australian Financial Review says RBA mulling rate cut Posted: 07 Oct 2011 06:51 AM PDT http://afr.com/p/national/rate_cut_on_cards_as_rba_spruiks_OUrbKYpuw0XDQePV1lwGOI The article says the RBA has told the IMF that they have plenty of room to respond to the current global downturn. This week, the RBA kept the rate unchanged at 4.75%. They have raised rates from 3.5% as they benefitted from the exporting of mining natural resources to emerging countries like China and India. The AUDUSD is up on the day but coming off the highs. The next support comesin at the 0.9814/17 which represents an earlier day high and the 38..2% of the days trading range.
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| USDCHF between support (38.2% retracement) and resistance (100 hour MA) Posted: 07 Oct 2011 06:32 AM PDT
The USDCHF’s initial reaction was to the downside (flight out of the risk? How the USDCHF has changed its tune from flight to quality?) and tested the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September 29th low to the recent high. That level comes in at the 0.9161 level (see chart above). On the topside resistance comes in against the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) at the 0.9207 level. These levels may just contain the price action for the USDCHF for the time being, with a break above or below the key technical levels providing the clues of the “markets” intentions. The USDCHF (and other CHF crosses) have a bullish bias due to the SNBs success in keeping the EURCHF elevated following the “pegging” of the pair above the 1.2000 level. The EURCHF is up at 1.2400 currently. Yesterday, the price closed above the 200 day MA in the EURCHF at the 1.2336 level. This was the first close above the 200 day MA for the pair since April 6th, and it should lead to further upside momentum (as long as the price stays above the level).
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| GBPUSD rotates back down as employment digested Posted: 07 Oct 2011 06:11 AM PDT
Like the EURUSD (see prior post), the GBPUSD moved higher on the back of the ”better” employment data, but has given back some of the gains and moved back within the channel boundaries. For the GBPUSD below the 1.5563 returns the pair into the channel. There is support target at the 1.5544 level now. This is the 61.8% of the move down from the Sept 28th high to the low reached yesterday. Further support comes in at the 1.5525/28 area where the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) and the 38.2% of todays range is found. A break of this level should lead to a test of the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (blue line below) and the 50% of the days range both currently at the 1.5508 level.
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| EURUSD moves higher on the better employment report Posted: 07 Oct 2011 05:54 AM PDT The EURUSD is correcting lower after testing the waters above the 1.3503 channel trendline level (see hourly chart above). The high reached 1.3512 but quickly retreated (only spent a minute above the 1.3503 level). The correction to the downside is testing the 38.2% of the last leg higher on the 5 minute chart at the 1.3474 level (see chart below). On the hourly chart the same level (1.3474) is the 61.8% of the move down from the September 29th high to the low reached on October 4th. This level will be a key level to watch today. Take note the volatility is not over for the pair. The stock market is yet to open. On the one hand the better data is a relief and should be good news for the economy. On the negative side, the better data puts QE3 on hold. Plus the underemployment rate did rise to 16.5% from 16.2% and the jobs were boosted by 45K returning Verizon strikers. The stock bulls would have loved to see jobs and QE stimulus. So look for continued volatility as the stock market comes into focus and weighs in.
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| US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise 103K, Private Sector Also Stronger Posted: 07 Oct 2011 05:33 AM PDT Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: Survey: 55K Actual: 103K Prior: 0K Revision: 57K Change in Private Payrolls: Survey: 90K Actual: 137K Prior: 17K Revised: 42K Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: Survey: 0K Actual: -13K Prior: -3K Revised: -4K Unemployment Rate: Survey: 9.1% Actual: 9.1% Prior: 9.1% Avg Hourly Earning (MoM) All Emp: Survey: 0.2% Actual: 0.2% Prior: -0.1% Avg Hourly Earning (YoY) All Emp: Survey: 1.9% Actual: 1.9% Prior: 1.9% Avg Weekly Hours All Employees: Survey: 34.2 Actual: 34.3 Prior: 34.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| US NFP 103k, Private Payroll 137K UnE 9.1% Posted: 07 Oct 2011 05:32 AM PDT Revisions higher as well Private Payroll 42K vs 17K Underemployment rate however rose to 16.5 from 16.2%. This is not good news. The average weekly hours rose to 34.3 and earnings increased by 0.2% Manufacturing -13K
45K striking workers return. Dow Futures up 87 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.7.2011 Posted: 07 Oct 2011 05:24 AM PDT
With speculation growing that the banking sector in the European Union will get the financial support they need to keep their operations running smoothly, kept the Euro in positive territory this week. With the ECB reintroducing yearlong loans along with resuming the purchasing of covered bonds should help the banks continue their ability to lend funds. The Non Farm payroll data that is expected to be released at 8:30 AM this morning should show an increase of 55K , as the private sector is expected to show an increase of 90K. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 9.1%. With no change last month-any sign of growth will be a welcome sign to the marketplace. World equity markets were higher, and US Futures are slightly lower this morning.
HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Support/Resistance targets for major pairs Posted: 07 Oct 2011 05:21 AM PDT 100 Hour MA = Blue Line
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| US Unemployment Preview with key technical levels to eye Posted: 07 Oct 2011 05:01 AM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Nonfarm, Private Payrolls & Unemployment Figures Due at 8:30AM Posted: 07 Oct 2011 04:15 AM PDT
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| Canada adds a surprising 60.9K jobs. USDCAD moves to 38.2% retracement Posted: 07 Oct 2011 04:02 AM PDT The Unemployment rate falls to 7.1%. Full time employment adds 63.8k This is the highest job adds in 8 months. The Unemployment rate is the lowest since 2008. Education added 38.4K and Professional and Scientific Services added 35.6K accounting for all of the gains of 63.8K full time jobs added. Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing shed 35.3K jobs USDCAD gaps to the downside on the news. The 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September 16th low comes in at the 1.0327 level This level has found profit taking buying as the US Unemployment rate gives traders a reason to pause. On the topside, the 200 hour MA is at the 1.0400 level.
At 8:30 AM the US Unemployment report will be released with expectations for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 9.1%, the NFP to add 60K jobs, the Private Sector to add 90K and Manufacturing to be flat. The Underemployment rate will also be eyed (last month it was at 16.2%).
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| Canada Unemployment due at 7 AM ET Posted: 07 Oct 2011 04:01 AM PDT Expectation: 7.3% Rate | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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