Friday, October 21, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Mexico Unemployment Rate Improves to 5.68% From 5.79%

Posted: 21 Oct 2011 06:48 AM PDT

Canadian CPI (Sept) 0.2% as expected.

Posted: 21 Oct 2011 04:01 AM PDT

German official says no consensus yet on EFSF leveraging, many reasons to reject the EFSF bank license.

Posted: 21 Oct 2011 03:44 AM PDT

ECB’s Stark

Posted: 21 Oct 2011 02:36 AM PDT

  • With every larger rescue package there is risk “the water damage is greater than the danger by the fire”.
  • ECB has clear mandate, must fulfil mandate to deliver price stability in medium term.
  • ECB has to do all it can to tackle the crisis, as far as the mandate allows.
  • We are facing not just a sovereign debt crisis in Europe, but a confidence crisis; it must be restored.

Fitch’s Riley has to plans to downgrade France.

Posted: 21 Oct 2011 02:33 AM PDT

  • If Greek default is part of resolution to the debt crisis, that will be beneficial for France.
  • Upcoming EU summit outcome is unlikely to trigger review of Italy and Spain ratings.
  • Expects larget haircuts on Greek debt than agreed in July.
  • Intensity of Euro zone crisis is likely to generate recession.

UK public sector net borrowing (Sept) 19.9B vs 18.0B expected (11.8B prior).

Posted: 21 Oct 2011 01:38 AM PDT

Euro lower after IFO’s Abberger says the ECB should cut its key rates to 1%, this will likely happen in two stages.

Posted: 21 Oct 2011 01:12 AM PDT

German Ifo business confidence 106.4 vs 106.2 expected (107.5 prior).

Posted: 21 Oct 2011 01:00 AM PDT

Aussie forming a short term wedge

Posted: 21 Oct 2011 12:39 AM PDT

The AUD/USD has been developing a wedge since yesterday. Currently the resistance line and the 200 bar moving average both come in at 1.0243. The pair tested support, but could not secure a close below, but tested the 61.8% line. On the 15 minute chart we look for a least two consecutive closes higher or lower in order to help pick a direction.

USD/CHF on the rebound

Posted: 21 Oct 2011 12:24 AM PDT

With European equities opening lower, we’ve seen the EUR softer in recent trading which has given the USD a slight boost. In the case of the USD vs. the CHF, we’re seeing some rebounding after hitting a low of .88455; the pair hasn’t traded this low since September 21st. The next bullish target appears to be the 38.2% line.

ECB’s Nowotny

Posted: 21 Oct 2011 12:19 AM PDT

  • EUR as a currency has no problem.
  • ECB focused on liquidity provision at the last minute.
  • Will discuss monetary policy again when we have new economic forecasts.
  • There are ideas about European investment banks stepping in to help growth.

A leading member of Merkel’s bloc says she rejects giving EFSF bank licenses.

Posted: 21 Oct 2011 12:17 AM PDT

German fin. minister says growth accelerated in Q2, growth to slow in H2.

Posted: 20 Oct 2011 11:55 PM PDT

10-21 Calender

Posted: 20 Oct 2011 09:01 PM PDT

USDCNH Continues to Consolidate

Posted: 20 Oct 2011 05:36 PM PDT

The USDCNH pair continues to consolidate inside the wedge we’ve discussed this week, not gaining a bid even as the USD has. News out of China has been light as it has from the US Congress as far as rhetoric in regards to sanctions is concerned. The window inside the wedge is closing quickly, which could have almost no effect on the pair as technicals do not rule the day as far as the Renminbi is concerned.
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