Forex Market Updates & Commentary

US Economic Optimism Strengthens to 40.3 vs 39.4 Survey and Prior of 39.9
EURUSD approaches the 38.2% of the last trend move higher at 1.3568
Moody’s says US growth pace leaves it vulnerable to a new downturn
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.11.2011
Slovak Finance Minister Miklos says lawmakers will eventually approve EFSF
EU Barroso says to make proposal on recapitalising banks on Wednesday
NY Morning Forex Commentary for October 11th 2011
Canada Housing Starts
Troika says Greece will miss 2011 targets, but to likely get next tranche in early November
Canada Housing Starts Due at 8:15AM
Greek haircut of 40-60% are under consideration
UK August Manufacturing Production drops 0.3%
Trichet on the wires
Eur/Usd from a daily perspective
10-11 Economic Calendar

US Economic Optimism Strengthens to 40.3 vs 39.4 Survey and Prior of 39.9

Posted: 11 Oct 2011 07:04 AM PDT

EURUSD approaches the 38.2% of the last trend move higher at 1.3568

Posted: 11 Oct 2011 05:57 AM PDT

The 38.2% of the move up from Friday’s low comes in at the 1.3568 level. The level should find some profit taking interest with a break lower targeting the next retracement area at the 1.3529 area. The high from Thursday comes in at the 1.3523 level. This should also increase the importance of the level.

On the topside 1.3615 was a floor level from earlier in the trading day. It capped the last hour of trading – before the move down in the last few minutes of trading.

Moody’s says US growth pace leaves it vulnerable to a new downturn

Posted: 11 Oct 2011 05:51 AM PDT

Cites a 40% chance for another recession.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.11.2011

Posted: 11 Oct 2011 05:51 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Quotes from the five best foreign-exchange forecasters (as measured by Bloomberg), say that the best is over for the dollar. The rally that has helped the greenback has no chance of continuing-as the slow US economy will force the Fed to flood the world with USD, to inject liquidity into the financial sector through bond purchases. With almost 3 years of near zero interest rates, and $2.35 billion of bond purchases during the same 3 years pulled the US out of a recession, but the faltering economy has some analysts fearing a new recession is brewing on the horizon.

The Euro was a bit softer ahead of a vote by Slovakian Lawmakers on the Euro Zone bailout. Most feel that this will pass, but that the vote will be messy-thus adding additional uncertainty to an already uncertain situation.
In other Euro Zone news, the Greek government is comenting that the budget deficit will be 9.1% of Greek GDP-versus the original target of 7.5%. I am not surprised-are you?

Asian equity markets were higher, following NY”s rally on Monday (up 330 points). European markets and US Futures are lower at this time.

Gold and oil are lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Slovak Finance Minister Miklos says lawmakers will eventually approve EFSF

Posted: 11 Oct 2011 05:45 AM PDT

It seems the comment implies it may not be today..

EU Barroso says to make proposal on recapitalising banks on Wednesday

Posted: 11 Oct 2011 05:32 AM PDT

Looking for comprehensive package for sovereigns and banks

Meanwhile the final vote from Slovakia is due this NY morning. The Slovakia finance minister is on the newswires saying EFSF is necessary to tame the debt crisis.

NY Morning Forex Commentary for October 11th 2011

Posted: 11 Oct 2011 05:25 AM PDT

Canada Housing Starts

Posted: 11 Oct 2011 05:18 AM PDT

Canada Housing Starts: Survey: 189.5K Actual: 205.9K Prior: 184.7 Revised: 184.6

USD/CAD stays flat on the news.

Troika says Greece will miss 2011 targets, but to likely get next tranche in early November

Posted: 11 Oct 2011 04:50 AM PDT

Additional measures are likely needed to meet 2013/14 targets
Progress has been uneven
Greek recission deeper than anticipated
Privatization revenues to be lower this year.
Greek will likely get the tranche in early November
Essential that Greek authorities put more emphasis on structural reforms

It seems the game is simply getting extended and extended.

Canada Housing Starts Due at 8:15AM

Posted: 11 Oct 2011 04:45 AM PDT

Greek haircut of 40-60% are under consideration

Posted: 11 Oct 2011 04:43 AM PDT

Greek Debt deemed unsustainable
Debate on whether haircut should involve ECB and EU governments

Going ahead 23rd October EU meeting to discuss plans for Greece
November 3rd, G20 meeting. EU present plan

A few days before the g20, the Ecofin (finance ministers) will meet.

UK August Manufacturing Production drops 0.3%

Posted: 11 Oct 2011 01:36 AM PDT

A 0.1% decline was expected.

Industrial Production rose 0.2%, stronger than the 0.2% decline expected.

Gbp/Usd is off about 15 points on news, currently trading at 1.5635.

Trichet on the wires

Posted: 11 Oct 2011 01:33 AM PDT

* Euro crisis has reached systemic dimension

* situation remained demanding over past few weeks

* sovereign stress has moved to larger nations

* contagion threatens financial stability

* governments must act swiftly

* further delays will worsen situation

Eur/Usd from a daily perspective

Posted: 10 Oct 2011 10:47 PM PDT

Eur/Usd is currently trading just below the 38.2% fibo (1.3677) of move down from 8/29 high of 1.4548 to 10/3 low of 1.3166. The pair has failed in recent trade to make a clean break above as 1.3700, which has been a formidable level of resistance. A break above should send the pair higher, with 1.3790-00 acting as next level of resistance.