Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US Factory Orders Drop to -0.2% From 2.4% in The Prior Month
• Fed Bernanke says prepared to take further action as appropriate
• USDCAD makes new highs and targets 1.0672
• Pimco El Arian says real US unemployment rate 20%
• EURUSD moves toward trendline resistance
• Trichet speaking now. Primary aim to price stability
• Talking Technicals with James Chen – Webinar Today at 12:30 PM U.S. ET
• Canada Finance minister Flaherty commenting on newswires
• Mexico Consumer Confidence Falls to 92.4 From Prior Figure of 93.4
• Sources: EU debating a bigger haircut for Greek bank creditors
• GBPUSD finding some profit taking support against trendline in early NY trading
• NY Morning Forex Commentary for November 4th 2011
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.4.2011
• Factory Orders Due at 10AM
• Trendline in play on daily chart for the NZDUSD

US Factory Orders Drop to -0.2% From 2.4% in The Prior Month Posted: 04 Oct 2011 07:02 AM PDT

Fed Bernanke says prepared to take further action as appropriate Posted: 04 Oct 2011 07:02 AM PDT Europe pose a risk Inflation moderating Persistent factors restraining pace of recovery Sluggish job growth likely Recover mush less robust Monetary policy not a panacea for US economy Government cuts are an increasing drag on economy http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20111004a.htm

USDCAD makes new highs and targets 1.0672 Posted: 04 Oct 2011 07:01 AM PDT The USDCAD continues to trend to the upside with the next key target in the 1.0667 to 1.0672 area.   The 1.0667 is the current upside trendline  on the hourly chart below. The daily chart above has a ceiling in the area from July/August 2010.

Pimco El Arian says real US unemployment rate 20% Posted: 04 Oct 2011 06:58 AM PDT

EURUSD moves toward trendline resistance Posted: 04 Oct 2011 06:34 AM PDT The EURUSD is approaching top trendline resistance at the 1.3219 level. This line connects highs over the last few days of trading on the hourly chart. A move above will be needed to increase the corrective momentum. The high for the day for the day is 1.3226. A break of that level targets the 1.3244 price. On the downside, 1.3193 and 1.3174 are levels to eye for downside clues.   The 1.3193 is the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. The 1.3174 level is a floor level. The range for the day so far  is 81 pips (1.3144 to 1.3226). This is a narrow range for the day and an extension to the upside or the downside cannot be ruled out. So far Trichets comments have not caused much of a reaction. Bernanke speaks at 10 AM ET. The stock market is open with S&P down 14 points and now below the key 1100 level. The Dow is down 120 points.

Trichet speaking now. Primary aim to price stability Posted: 04 Oct 2011 06:16 AM PDT Debt crisis puts Euro under severe pressure Medium term inflation expectations remain stable Trichet needs a finance ministry Risk to inflation balanced Moderate GDP growth in the 2nd half Will continue to guard our currency

Talking Technicals with James Chen – Webinar Today at 12:30 PM U.S. ET Posted: 04 Oct 2011 06:15 AM PDT Please join us today (Tuesday, Oct. 4) at 12:30 PM U.S. ET for FXDD’s Talking Technicals with James Chen. This free webinar will feature a high-probability technical approach to trading in the Forex market. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/588186792 .

Canada Finance minister Flaherty commenting on newswires Posted: 04 Oct 2011 06:13 AM PDT Government to introduce budget laws to boost jobs Considerable global risk/uncertainty Has advocated for flexibility on size of facility Europe has decided to create (i.e. EFSF) Volatility in C$ is always a concern Would do more to stimulate growth.

Mexico Consumer Confidence Falls to 92.4 From Prior Figure of 93.4 Posted: 04 Oct 2011 06:11 AM PDT

Sources: EU debating a bigger haircut for Greek bank creditors Posted: 04 Oct 2011 06:09 AM PDT Haircut may involve lower coupon, longer maturities.  If the haircut is larger, than recapitalization of banks will likely be thought through and implemented.

GBPUSD finding some profit taking support against trendline in early NY trading Posted: 04 Oct 2011 05:50 AM PDT   The GBPUSD found support at bottom trendline at the 1.5362 area in the hourly chart above.   This was the third test of the trendline and has prompted some profit taking from traders – at least initially.   Looking at the intraday chart below, Traders who are dip buyers will now need a move above the 1.5391 level to confirm a potential temporary bottom.  A move above this level would next target the 100 bar MA at the 1.5409 level currently.  The 200 bar MA on the same chart (green line in chart below) comes in at the 1.5423 and the topside trendline is at the 1.5440 level.  These are all targets above which will define the route for any bulls, and provide selling options for the trend followers. If the downward trend down is to continue today, a break of the low for the day (and trendline in the hourly chart) has the 1.5343 and then 1.5326 levels as targets.  The 1.5343 is the low from the end of December 2010 and during August 2010 period.  The 1.5326 is the low from September 22nd 2011.

NY Morning Forex Commentary for November 4th 2011 Posted: 04 Oct 2011 05:27 AM PDT

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.4.2011 Posted: 04 Oct 2011 05:21 AM PDT Good Morning: World equity markets continue to take a beating as Asian, along with European indexes stayed lower.  US Futures are also lower by over 100 points at this time.  Dexia  stock (The French-Belgium bank) lost almost 40% of it’s value, as their exposure to Greek debt seems to be larger than originally thought.  The Euro tumbled on the heels of the Dexia crisis. The French government has commented that Dexia has liquidity problems, not solvency problem.  Either way-Dexia has major problems on their hands. The S&P index is now within 1% of being considered a “bear market”.  With countries around the world running out of options to keep their economies afloat-worldwide indexes are all about to enter a “bear market” period. The USD is fairing very well among the world’s chaos, as investors seek the safe haven of US Treasuries and the greenback. Oil is lower-while Gold and Silver remain higher.               TIME        FOR EST. PRIOR 10:00A.M. FACTORY ORDERS   AUG. 0.00% 2.40%               10:00A.M. BERNANKE TO TESTIFY ON U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK   HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Factory Orders Due at 10AM Posted: 04 Oct 2011 04:58 AM PDT

Trendline in play on daily chart for the NZDUSD Posted: 04 Oct 2011 04:49 AM PDT The 0.7502 level is being tested in the NZDUSD. This is the trendline which extends from the lows in June 2010.    The price is currently below that level now and is testing the low for the day for the 4th time.  Momentum needs to be developed shortly or another corrective rally can occur.

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