Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Chicago PMI comes in stronger at 68.8
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Canada Showing Positive Data
• US Personal Income & Spending Both Rise as PCE Data is Slightly Worse
• Spending higher, Income lags. Savings rate down. EURUSD tests 1.3720
• EURUSD moves above 1.3686 and extends higher
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.31.2011
• US Personal Income, Personal Spending & PCE Data due at 8:30AM
• Canada GDP, Industrial Product Price, & Raw Materials Price Index Data due at 8:30AM
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary for January 31st
• Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate
• Eur/Usd recovering, needs to push above 1.3640 for added strength
• German Retail Sales
• 1-31 Economic Calendar
• Japan’s Industrial Production

Chicago PMI comes in stronger at 68.8 Posted: 31 Jan 2011 06:45 AM PST The expectations was for a decline from last month to 64.5 from 66.8 The components showed stronger numbers as well: Prices paid 81.7 vs 78.0 last month Production 73.7 vs 72.2 last month New orders 75.7 vs 71.3 last month Order backlogs 60.6 vs 60.1 last month Inventories 54.5 vs 60.0 last month Employment 64.1 vs 58.4 last month Supplier deliveries 59.8 vs 63.2 last month

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 31 Jan 2011 06:21 AM PST

Canada Showing Positive Data Posted: 31 Jan 2011 05:38 AM PST Gross Domestic Product (MoM):    Survey:  0.3%         Actual: 0.4%        Prior: 0.2%    NOV vs. OCT Goods: 0.1 vs 0.0% Manufacturing:  -0.8  vs  -0.8% Services: 0.5 vs  0.2% Wholesale: 1.5  vs  1.0% Industrial Prodution: 0.2  vs  0.1% Energy: 1.6  vs  0.5% Gross Domestic Product (YoY):             Actual: 3.0%        Revision:  3.4%    Industrial Product Price (MoM):    Survey:  0.6%         Actual: 0.7%        Prior: 0.5%   Revised: 0.6% Raw Materials Price Index (MoM):    Survey:  4.0%         Actual: 4.2%        Prior: 3.5%  Revised: 0.3%

US Personal Income & Spending Both Rise as PCE Data is Slightly Worse Posted: 31 Jan 2011 05:36 AM PST Personal Income:           Survey: 0.4%         Actual:  0.4%        Prior: 0.3%    Revised: 0.4%      DEC vs. NOV Personal Income:  0.4 vs 0.4 Compensation:  0.3 vs 0.1 Wage & Salary:  0.3 vs 0.1 Disposable Inc: 0.4 vs 0.3 Personal Spending: 0.7 vs 0.3 3 Mon Annual %: 6.3 vs 5.4 Saving Rate: 5.3 vs 5.5 Personal Spending:        Survey: 0.5%         Actual: 0.7%         Prior: 0.4%       Revised: 0.3% PCE Deflator:    Survey: 1.3%         Actual:  1.2%         Prior: 1.0%         PCE Core(MoM):     Survey: 0.1%         Actual:  0.0%         Prior: 0.1%       PCE Core(YoY):    Survey:  0.8%         Actual:  0.7%         Prior:  0.8%

Spending higher, Income lags. Savings rate down. EURUSD tests 1.3720 Posted: 31 Jan 2011 05:31 AM PST With spending rising by 0.7% and incomes lagging with a 0.4% gain, the savings rate fell to 5.3% from 5.5%. PCE core continued to be tame with an unchanged reading. In Canada, GDP rose by 0.4% vs 0.3%. Inflation as measured by Industrial Product prices rose by 0.7% and Raw Material Price Index rose by 4.2%. EURUSD is testing the next upside resistance at the 1.3720 level. The USDCAD has moved lower on the better data and is now below the 0.9976-82 level. It is testing the next support level at the 100 hour MA and the underside trendline at the .09966 level.  Watch the 0.9976 to 0.9982 level for clues.  If the price can stay below these levels, the bias remains lower for the pair, with 0.9932 the next key support.

EURUSD moves above 1.3686 and extends higher Posted: 31 Jan 2011 05:26 AM PST

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.31.2011 Posted: 31 Jan 2011 05:26 AM PST Good Morning: We wake up this morning with the situation in Egypt very much on the forefront of all world news events. Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Egyptian government debt, which was highly anticipated.  The outlook is negative, and Egyptian debt sales have been put on hold.  Egypt’s banks and stock market were closed for the second day-as tens of thousands take to the street for the 6th day of protests against President Mubarak. Risk is off the table for now-as investors pursue safety. World equity markets are lower-but US Futures are pointing to a positive opening this morning. Oil is just around the $90/bar on concerns that any disturbance in the Middle East may affect the flow of oil. Presently the Suez Canal is operating normally-as this is a vital shipping channel for the region.  Keeping the Suez Canal open and running smothly will be a key indicator of oil prices in the near term. Oil:$89.99                                                        Gold:$1331.20 TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 8:30A.M. PCE CORE MoM DEC. 0.10% 0.10% 8:30A.M. PERSONAL SPENDING DEC. 0.50% 0.40% 8:30A.M. PCE CORE YoY      DEC. 0.80% 0.80% 8:30A.M. PCE DEFLATOR DEC. 1.30% 1.00% 8:30A.M. PERSONAL INCOME DEC. 0.40% 0.30% 9:45A.M. CHICAGO PURCHASING MGR. JAN. 65.O     66.8O 10:00A.M. NAPM-MILWAUKEE JAN. 10:30A.M. DALLAS FED MANF. ACTIVITY JAN.       15.O 12.8O HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US Personal Income, Personal Spending & PCE Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 31 Jan 2011 04:43 AM PST

Canada GDP, Industrial Product Price, & Raw Materials Price Index Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 31 Jan 2011 04:34 AM PST

The NY Opening Forex Commentary for January 31st Posted: 31 Jan 2011 04:29 AM PST

Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate Posted: 31 Jan 2011 02:08 AM PST Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate y/y came in at 2.4%, inline with expectations but an improvement of the 2.2% prior reading. The market may have taken this as positive news as Eur/Usd escalated above 1.3640 upon the heels of release. The pair currently trades at 1.3660.

Eur/Usd recovering, needs to push above 1.3640 for added strength Posted: 31 Jan 2011 12:20 AM PST Since trading down to 1.3569 earlier in the session Eur/Usd has been on a steady recovery. If the pair can rise above 1.3640, which is the 50% fibo of move down from 1.3757 to 1.3569, this would signify a bullish sentiment and possibly send Euro above 1.3700. After the drop on Friday the pair tested 1.3640 as it attempted to rebound but couldn’t break above. So far the high has been 1.3635 this session and it appears the pair is poised for another run at 1.3640.

German Retail Sales Posted: 31 Jan 2011 12:02 AM PST German Retail Sales m/m came in at -0.3%, weaker than the 1.9% expected. The Euro held in place after this negative data. Eur/Usd is in the midst of a recovery after aselloff  down to 1.3569, mostly due to the crisis in Egypt The pair currently trades at 1.3624.

1-31 Economic Calendar Posted: 30 Jan 2011 09:22 PM PST

Japan’s Industrial Production Posted: 30 Jan 2011 06:17 PM PST Japan’s December Industrial Production readings came in better than expected up 3.1% month over month, higher than the survey of 2.8% and the prior reading of 1.0%. The year over year number was also better than expected up 4.6% vs. the 4.4% survey. The USD/JPY pair had no reaction to the release as the market is relatively unchanged as the world awaits a direction or resolution to the current turmoil in the Middle East.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• The Weekend Technical Forex Commentary for Jan 28th is available for viewing
• Gold finds technical selling levels as the end of week approaches
• EURUSD finds support/profit taking buyers
• Midday Forex Commentary from FXDD
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.28.2011
• Stay below 1.3636-42 in the EURUSD keeps bears in charge
• GBPUSD moving lower on dollar buying. Stay below 1.5857

The Weekend Technical Forex Commentary for Jan 28th is available for viewing Posted: 28 Jan 2011 01:22 PM PST The Weekend Technical Forex Commentary for Jan 28th is available for viewing

Gold finds technical selling levels as the end of week approaches Posted: 28 Jan 2011 10:35 AM PST Gold finds technical selling levels as the end of week approaches. The key levels to eye now include 1338 and the 100 hour MA at the 1330 level. On the topside, the 200 hour MA at the 1344.50 level and the double top (yesterday and today at 1347). Above that 1352 = 38.2% of the 2011 trading range.

EURUSD finds support/profit taking buyers Posted: 28 Jan 2011 09:43 AM PST The EURUSD resistance levels at 1.3618. A move above that targets 1.3636-43 again. Key support comes in against the 1.3577-85 now where MA and Fibo support is found.

Midday Forex Commentary from FXDD Posted: 28 Jan 2011 09:09 AM PST

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.28.2011 Posted: 28 Jan 2011 08:52 AM PST Good Morning: Sorry for the late posting-too much snow-too many mass transit delays ….. Oil prices jumped, world wide equity markets are lower, and the USD rose against the Euro amid protests in Egypt. President Mubarak has imposed curfews in Cairo,Suez and Alexandria.  News coverage has shown footage of military personnel and vehicles on the streets. The Egyptian government has denied that they are blocking various social media (twitter and facebook), sites along with internet sites that are able to display photos of the demonstrations. This is unquestionably President Hosni Mubarak’s biggest challenge in his 30 year reign.  He is expected to speak to his nation this evening. The next few days will be the turning point for Mr. Mubarak’s rule-as he needs to get control of the situation before it becomes a completly out of control situation. HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Stay below 1.3636-42 in the EURUSD keeps bears in charge Posted: 28 Jan 2011 08:04 AM PST The sharp fall in the EURUSD on the break of the 100 hour MA has sent the pair tumbling to the downside.  The move does seem to have some momentum behind it.  With that type of move, the corrections will be eyed closely to judge the strength of the conviction. If the price can now remains below the 1.3636-42 level, I think the price bias should remain firmly to the downside.  This level corresponds to the low from yesterday and the lows from Wednesday.

GBPUSD moving lower on dollar buying. Stay below 1.5857 Posted: 28 Jan 2011 07:47 AM PST  The GBPUSD is moving lower with the general flight to quality/safety that is prevailing in the market today. They price has moves through the 50% and 61.8% fibo support levels at 1.5869 and 1.5841 and has moved to test the ceiling high levels from Tuesdays trade.  That level came in at 1.5831 and the low has so far been 1.5832. A break of the 1.5832 is likely to solicit additional selling with trendline support at 1.5816 the next target. Below that level the weeks low at 1.5749 and the Wednesday low at 1.5768 would be further target levels. If the price can stay below 1.5857 the bearish bias remains in control

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Oil moves higher on Egypt tensions.
• EURUSD moves below the 100 hour MA
• Military in streets in Cairo.
• Gold moves higher.
• University of Michigan Confidence Higher
• GDP comes in weaker but the components are good. The majors stay within ranges
• GDP: Consumption and exports lead the gain, but Govt and Investment falter
• US GDP & Employment Cost Index Fall, Personal Consumption Rises
• Key technical levels in the USDCAD to eye through US GDP
• Key technical levels in the USDJPY to eye through US GDP
• Key technical levels in the GBPUSD to eye through US GDP
• Key technical levels in the EURUSD to eye through US GDP
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary. Key levels through the GDP
• US Employment Cost Index & GDP Data due at 8:30AM
• Trichet speaking on Swiss television

Oil moves higher on Egypt tensions. Posted: 28 Jan 2011 07:32 AM PST Mideast tension in Egypt is causing oil to rebound today. Oil is up $1.50 currently. There are some rumors that flow of oil through the Suez Canal might be effected, disrupting the supply of oil out of the Middle East.

EURUSD moves below the 100 hour MA Posted: 28 Jan 2011 07:25 AM PST

Military in streets in Cairo. Posted: 28 Jan 2011 07:17 AM PST Gold surges higher

Gold moves higher. Posted: 28 Jan 2011 07:04 AM PST Gold has moved above the 1315 resistance area as pictures of rioting in Egypt help contribute to the flight to safety bias. The price must maintain above the level to keep the bullish bias. IF it can, the 100 hour MA at the 1330 level becomes a target. Before that level 1326.65 is a key level. This is the 38.2% of the move up from the July 2010 low the December 2010 high.

University of Michigan Confidence Higher Posted: 28 Jan 2011 06:56 AM PST

GDP comes in weaker but the components are good. The majors stay within ranges Posted: 28 Jan 2011 06:09 AM PST

GDP: Consumption and exports lead the gain, but Govt and Investment falter Posted: 28 Jan 2011 05:33 AM PST The USD GDP came in less than expectations at 3.2% vs 3.6% expectations. Personal consumption rose by 4.4% which was higher than 4.0% gain expected (for the quarter). Exports rose by 8.5%. Inventories only added $7.2 billion. Last quarter they rose by $121 billion. This suggests inventory replenishment going forward should boost growth going forward. Final real sales increases by 7.1% (best since 1984) Contributions to GDP: Personal Consumption 3.04% Gross Pvt Investment: -3.2% (within this category Inventories were the big negative contributor as it subtracted -3.7% from GDP) Net Exports::+3.44% Government: -.11% Overall, although weaker than expectations, the mix is positive with consumption strong and inventories being the big negative.  If Final sales continue the inventories will need to be replenished going forward.  In fact, some analysts are estimating that because of the inventory bounceback effect, the 1st quarter GDP could be upwards of 5%.  Is it enough to start making a dent in employment? Jobs, Jobs, Jobs remain the key for 2011.  The dollar initially dipped on the repor with the USDJPY moving to support at the 82.08 area. The top has so far been contained by the 100 and 200 hour MA at 82.45-48. A break above this level  is bullish for the USDJPY.

US GDP & Employment Cost Index Fall, Personal Consumption Rises Posted: 28 Jan 2011 05:32 AM PST GDP Annualized:      Survey: 3.5%          Actual: 3.2%            Prior:  2.6%          GDP Price Index:     Survey:  1.6%         Actual: .3%       Prior:  2.1%  Core PCE (QoQ):    Survey:  0.4%         Actual: 0.4%        Prior: 0.5%    Personal Consumption:     Survey: 4.0%          Actual: 4.4%           Prior:  2.4%           Employment Cost Index:       Survey:  0.5%         Actual: 0.4%        Prior: 0.4%

Key technical levels in the USDCAD to eye through US GDP Posted: 28 Jan 2011 05:28 AM PST

Key technical levels in the USDJPY to eye through US GDP Posted: 28 Jan 2011 05:21 AM PST

Key technical levels in the GBPUSD to eye through US GDP Posted: 28 Jan 2011 05:18 AM PST

Key technical levels in the EURUSD to eye through US GDP Posted: 28 Jan 2011 05:10 AM PST

The NY Opening Forex Commentary. Key levels through the GDP Posted: 28 Jan 2011 04:54 AM PST In the report, I will outline the key support and resistance levels to eye through the all important US GDP. GDP expected to show a gain of 3.5% vs 2.6% on an annualized basis. Personal Consumption and Exports are expected to buoy the gains.

US Employment Cost Index & GDP Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 28 Jan 2011 04:35 AM PST

Trichet speaking on Swiss television Posted: 28 Jan 2011 02:36 AM PST Euro is “very credible”. Euro creating “confidence”. Euro region recovery has been confirmed. Recovery not creating enough jobs. Important to improve stability pact.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Pending Home sales higher.
• EURUSD breaks below the 1.3743 level
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Gold finds support from weak data, but contained
• EURUSD torn at these levels.
• Weak US data sends the dollar lower
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.27.2011
• Jobless Claims Rise Along with Weaker Durable Goods Orders
• Initial Claims soar to 454K. Durable Goods plunge
• Some key data today. ECB inflation rhetoric persistent
• US Jobless Claims & Durable Goods Orders Data due at 8:30AM
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• UK CBI realized sales as expected at 37.
• Euro higher after comments from ECB’s Bini Smaghi
• Sarkozy Comments

Pending Home sales higher. Posted: 27 Jan 2011 07:03 AM PST December ISM also revised higher to 58.5 form 57 Pending home sales came in at +2% MoM, the YoY came in at -3.6% vs -2.8%. Lower prices and relatively low rates have stabilized the market.

EURUSD breaks below the 1.3743 level Posted: 27 Jan 2011 07:00 AM PST The EURUSD fell below the 1.3743 level but has found support buyers against the 38.2% retracement of the days trading range. That level comes in at the 1.3711 level and the low come in at 1.3712. The corrective lows on an earlier move went to 1.3710. On the topside, the move above 1.3743 should have been a bullish event but the high at the 1.3757 level formed a double top. Traders overall are likely to think the EURUSD is too high. Hence the selling on moves higher. With the price below the 1.3743 level now, the topside intraday traders will start to use that level as resistance again. If the price moves above this would be indicative of more buying interest and a test of the highs could be expected. On the downside, break the 1.3710 level and there should be further selling pressure.

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 27 Jan 2011 06:34 AM PST   EURUSD hanging around the key 1.3743 level (61.8% Fibo Retracement) but finds sellers at the high for the day Gold finds some support against 1333.50 today.  Weak data should help along with Japan downgrade USDJPY rises on downgrade, but falls on US data GBPUSD rises to target level and finds intraday profit takers. This and more in the morning commentary.

Gold finds support from weak data, but contained Posted: 27 Jan 2011 06:07 AM PST

EURUSD torn at these levels. Posted: 27 Jan 2011 05:58 AM PST 1.3743 is the 61.8% retracement. High for the day finds profit takers.

Weak US data sends the dollar lower Posted: 27 Jan 2011 05:50 AM PST

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.27.2011 Posted: 27 Jan 2011 05:45 AM PST Good Morning: The main event in the FX arena was the unexpected downgrade of Japan’s credit rating to AA- by S&P.  Japan has the world’s largest debt load, and S&P stated that they do not feel that the government is doing enough to curb the spiraling deficit.  This along with continued deflation and lackluster GDP growth added to S&P’s decision to announce the downgrade. Japan’s cost of borrowing will no doubt increase, as we have seen with other countries with sovereign debt issues.  Concerns that sovereign debt problems will continue to plague not only the Euro Zone, but will spread to other regions on a larger scale than originally thought are weighing heavily on investors minds. This mornings data is very disappointing for investors and the US economy overall.  Jobless claims increased 51K, and Durable Goods in December 2010  droped by 2.5%. US stock futures turned lower after the news, but are presently flat. European equity markets are higher-and Asian markets were mixed, with Tokyo up 76 pts. Oil:$87.14                                                                                   Gold:$1335.00 8:30A.M. CHICAGO FED NAT ACTIVITY INDEX DEC. O.11 - O.46 8:30A.M. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS DEC. 1.50% -1.30% -0.30% 8:30A.M. DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION     DEC. 0.90% 2.40% 3.60% 8:30A.M. CAP GOODS ORDERS NONDEF EX AIR DEC. 1.30% 2.60% 8:30A.M. CAP GOODS SHIP NONDEF EX AIR DEC. 1.00% 8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 22-Jan 4O5K     404K 8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS 15-Jan 3873K 3861K 10:00A.M. PENDING HOME SALES MoM DEC. 1.00% 3.50% 10:00A.M. PENDING HOME SALES YoY DEC. -2.40%   HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Jobless Claims Rise Along with Weaker Durable Goods Orders Posted: 27 Jan 2011 05:35 AM PST Durable Goods Orders:   Survey: 1.5%      Actual: -2.5%   Prior:  -1.3%    Durables Ex Transportation:   Survey:  0.9%      Actual: 0.5%     Prior:  2.4%    Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air:   Survey:  1.3%     Actual:  1.4%    Prior:  2.6%     Revised: % Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air:    Actual:  1.7%    Prior:  1.0%      Jobless Claims:  Survey:  405K    Actual: 454K   Prior: 404K    Revised:  403K    Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3873K    Actual:  3991K    Prior: 3861  Revised: 3897K

Initial Claims soar to 454K. Durable Goods plunge Posted: 27 Jan 2011 05:30 AM PST BUT Ex Trans up 2.4%…CORRECTION.  Bloomberg is changing the values. The new numbers for Durable Goods is -2.5% headline. Ex Transportation +0.5% and Cap Goods Order non Defense ex air comes in at +1.4%.  SO overall, all the day for the US came out weaker than expectations. Regarding the initial claims, officials are saying that weather from a few weeks ago led to the improvement last week and the surge higher this week. They also are saying that seasonal volatility is effecting the numbers. The USDJPY is lower. The EURUSD is higher. The 61.8% of the move down from November comes in at 1.3743. Key level to eye.  GBPUSD is higher, the USDCHF is lower.  Gold is higher.

Some key data today. ECB inflation rhetoric persistent Posted: 27 Jan 2011 05:21 AM PST The Initial Claims and Durable Goods increase the risk for traders at 8:30 AM. Strong numbers will be needed it seems to keep the EURUSD from moving higher. The EURUSD remains supported by the shift in rhetoric from ECB officials who have shifted there focus onto inflation. A lower EURUSD increases import inflation and whether that is oil or commodities and those costs may be “temporary”, the ECB is concerned about the effects of those prices, making its way into other prices. So core inflation is not a concern. Headline inflation is. The tact may simply be a way to talk the EURUSD higher or perhaps stabilize it. It is not thought that the ECB would tighten. To do so would increase the risk to the economies which are under pressure and who are contracting fiscally. On the other extreme is the countries like Germany who are benefitting from a stronger global economy but who may have inflationary forces which the ECB does not want to get out of hand. If prices are raised in Germany, they are raised to the weaker economies as well who import from them. The ECB does not want to see this happen. As a result, if the US data were to come out weak (Durable expected to come in at +1.5, Initial Claims are expected at 405K) , the EURUSD may have more room to run. Key support remains the 100 hour MA. Today, the price bounced off the key MA level (blue line in the chart below) and that gave the technical reason to cover shorts/buy the EURUSD. The price has been above the 100 hour MA since January 12th.  People/traders may feel the market is overbought, the EURUSD should go down for this reason or that reason, but the fact is until the price moves below the 100 hour MA, the bias is bullish. Listen to what “the market” is saying. Above the 100 hour MA is still bullish.

US Jobless Claims & Durable Goods Orders Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 27 Jan 2011 05:09 AM PST

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 27 Jan 2011 04:12 AM PST

UK CBI realized sales as expected at 37. Posted: 27 Jan 2011 03:03 AM PST

Euro higher after comments from ECB’s Bini Smaghi Posted: 27 Jan 2011 02:48 AM PST The euro rallied after ECB board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi made comments that policy makers can no longer afford to ignore imported inflation. He stated that ”a permanent and repeated increase in the prices of imported products will tend to impact on inflation in the advanced countries, including the euro area”. Import price inflation in Germany was 12 percent in December, the fastest pace since October 1981. He made certain it was clear that his comments should not be interpreted as any sort of policy signal. Following these comments the EUR/USD made a new session high of 1.39367.

Sarkozy Comments Posted: 27 Jan 2011 02:35 AM PST French President Nicolas Sarkozy made the following comments: G-20 was “vital” in ending global crisis. “Now, the going gets tougher” for G-20. Sovereign debt and deficits are “major” risk. “Staggering debts” cause imbalances. Financial imbalances have grown fivefold. Imbalances can “bring down whole house of cards”. Soaring commodity prices, volatility are risks. No one wants to weaken the dollar. Dollar shouldn’t be the only reserve currency. “Makes no sense” that China is not in the FX discussions. Yuan should be in IMF’s SDR currency baskey. Seeks “foundations” for a new currency system.

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