Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• USDCHF floor tested and held again….
• EURUSD moves above intraday ceiling
• University of Michigan Confidence & US Business Inventories Fall
• Michigan Confidence comes in weaker. EURUSD tests upside ceiling
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary for January 14th
• US Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization Both Stronger
• USDCHF trading between the Goal Post
• Retail Sales Weaker as CPI Rises to Highest Level Since June
• Retail Sales disappoint. CPI elevated on headline
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.14.2011
• US Consumer Price Index & Retail Sales Data due at 8:30AM
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Swiss Government warns of Swiss strength
• USDJPY pounds the upside resistance
• Eurozone CPI

USDCHF floor tested and held again…. Posted: 14 Jan 2011 07:24 AM PST Look for sellers against the 200 hour MA at the 96.47 level. If the market stays below there remains a chance for a break of the key floor at 0.9604. However, there still likely to be buyers on dips again with a tight stop.

EURUSD moves above intraday ceiling Posted: 14 Jan 2011 07:12 AM PST

University of Michigan Confidence & US Business Inventories Fall Posted: 14 Jan 2011 07:07 AM PST Consumer confidence 72.7 vs 74.5 Economic conditions 79.8 vs 85.3 Economic outlook 68.2 vs 67.5 Business Inventories:    Survey: 0.7%      Actual: 0.2%     Prior: 0.7%    Revised: 0.8% November vs. October Business Inventories Breakdown: Retail Inventories:   0.0% vs. -0.6% Ex-Autos:   0.2% vs. -0.2% Motor Vehicles:   -0.8% vs. -1.4% Furniture:   1.2% vs. -0.3% Building Material:   0.4% vs. -0.1% Food & Beverage:   0.1% vs. -0.3% Clothing:   -0.3% vs. 0.1% General Merchandise:   0.1% vs. -0.1% Dept. Stores:  0.0% vs. 0.4%

Michigan Confidence comes in weaker. EURUSD tests upside ceiling Posted: 14 Jan 2011 07:04 AM PST Worse than expected Retail Sales Higher inflation Better Industrial production and Capacity Utilization Now worse than expected Michigan Consumer confidence (72.7 vs 76 expectations). The Economic Conditions component fell from 85.3 to 79.8. THe Economic Outlook improved to 68.2 from 67.5. The Dow is unchanged in early trader. S& P is up 2. Oil is down .69 and gold is down but rebounding as we speak. The EURUSD has rallied after the data and is moving above the ceiling at 1.3382. 1.3409 is the key 100 day MA and 1.3412 is the 38.2% Fibo retracement level

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for January 14th Posted: 14 Jan 2011 06:25 AM PST AUDUSD is down on PBOC rise in the Bank reserve requirement EURUSD remains contained by Floor support and ceiling resistance USDCHF has Swiss officials trying to push the pair higher but remains contained between the “Goal Posts”.  FInd out how to profit from that. EURCHF has enjoyed a rally over the last few days but ran into 38.2% profit taking sellers. Where is that key level now? USDCAD is testing key 0.9920-29 now.   Provides an opportunity USDJPY below 82.80-87 is bearish All are discussed in the Morning Forex Commentary

US Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization Both Stronger Posted: 14 Jan 2011 06:18 AM PST

USDCHF trading between the Goal Post Posted: 14 Jan 2011 05:58 AM PST

Retail Sales Weaker as CPI Rises to Highest Level Since June Posted: 14 Jan 2011 05:36 AM PST Consumer Price Index (MoM):    Survey: 0.4%      Actual: 0.5%    Prior:  0.1%       CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM):     Survey: 0.1%      Actual:  0.1%    Prior:  0.1%      Consumer Price Index  (y/y):     Survey: 1.3%   Actual: 1.5%   Prior: 1.1% Core CPI (y/y) - Survey: 0.7%   Actual: 0.8%   Prior: 0.8% CPI Core Index SA:          Actual: 222.187            Prior: 221.982 Consumer Price Index NSA:   Survey: 219.100     Actual: 219.179        Prior:   218.803 Advance Retail Sales:     Survey:  0.8%    Actual:  0.6%     Prior:  0.8%      Retail Sales Less Autos:     Survey:  0.7%    Actual: 0.5%   Prior: 1.2%    Revised:  1.0% Retail Sales Ex Autos & Gas:     Survey:  0.3%    Actual: 0.4%   Prior: 0.8%    Revised:  0.6%

Retail Sales disappoint. CPI elevated on headline Posted: 14 Jan 2011 05:32 AM PST With expectations of 0.8% and 0.7% ex autos, the 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. THe prior month was revised lower to 1% from 1.2% (ex auto). CPI higher not all that great either rising by 0.5%. With inflation up 0.5 and retail sales up 0.6%, not much momentum on an after inflation basis. The USDJPY moving lower on the numbers. Back below 82.80 -87 level. Resistance now against that level. The EURUSD is up testing 1.3382, but seems to be finding some sellers.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.14.2011 Posted: 14 Jan 2011 05:29 AM PST Good Morning: What a choppy overnight session it was! The EUR/USD pair moved up 100 bps before falling back to where it had started after the Chinese Central Bank rose reserve requirements by 50 bps. Also effecting the Euro was news that Spain had borrowed more from the ECB in December 2010 than they did in November-thus reflecting a deterioration in the countries funding abilities. Asian equity markets were mixed-European markets were lower and US Futures are also lower at this time. Oil:$90.49                                                               Gold:$1366.10 TIME  FOR EST. PRIOR 8:30A.M. CPI MoM DEC. 0.40% 0.10% 8:30A.M. CPI EX FOOD & ENERGY MoM DEC. 0.10% 0.10% 8:30A.M. CPI YoY      DEC. 1.30% 1.10% 8:30A.M. CPI EX FOOD & ENERGY YoY DEC. 0.70% 0.80% 8:30A.M. CPI CORE INDEX SA DEC. 222.2OO 22I.982 8:30A.M. CPI NSA DEC. 219.1OO    2I8.803 8:30A.M. ADVANCE RETAIL SALE S DEC. 0.80% 0.80% 8:30A.M. RETAIL SALES LESS AUTOS DEC. 0.70% 1.20% 8:30A.M. RETAIL SALES EX AUTO & GAS DEC. 0.30% 0.80% 9:15A.M. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DEC. 0.50% 0.40% 9:15A.M. CAPACITY UTILIZATION DEC. 75.60% 75.20% 9:55 A.M. U. OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE      JAN.P 75.5O      74.5O 10:00A.M. BUSINESS INVENTORIES     NOV. 0.60% 0.70% HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND and GOOD LUCK

US Consumer Price Index & Retail Sales Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 14 Jan 2011 05:11 AM PST

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 14 Jan 2011 05:08 AM PST

Swiss Government warns of Swiss strength Posted: 14 Jan 2011 05:04 AM PST The Swiss government is on the newswires saying that the persistent franc strength posing significant risks. Adds that the economy is struggling to adopt to speed of fx strength and that the currency will weigh on the recovery. Switzerland is a victim of success. Switzerland is an export reliant economy which also relies on ski tourism.  The higher franc makes a Swiss skiing vacation more expensive for Europeans as well as Americans who want to live the dream of skiing the Swiss Alps.

USDJPY pounds the upside resistance Posted: 14 Jan 2011 04:08 AM PST

Eurozone CPI Posted: 14 Jan 2011 02:09 AM PST   Eurozone CPI y/y came in at 2.2%, inline with expectations and prior reading. Core CPI y/y came in at 1.1%, inline with expectations and prior reading. ECB’s Weber stated medium term inflation could move to the upside, precipitating a sell off of Euro. Eur/Usd sold off going into numbers, trading down to 1.3355. The pair is currently at 1.3363.

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